Jared Levitt 
Hump Day! Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS. There is a very strong chance though that thanks to weather, this will be down to an 8-game slate as there’s a Hurricane traveling towards GA. That will more than likely eliminate the most expensive pitcher on the slate. With Baltimore and San Diego clinching last night, we’re now down to 4 playoff spots remaining and those races are as tight as tight could be. The next few days are going to be memorable ones.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
As I noted above, the Braves/Mets game playing tonight (and tomorrow) seems unlikely. The Atlanta area is expected to get 1-2 inches of rain this afternoon and night and I just don’t see them building a dome in time for this one. Should the weather do a 180 though, Chris Sale is the SP1 and he’ the SP1 by a country mile. The next best 2 pitchers on this slate are Dylan Cease and Jack Flaherty and they face off against each other. I want nothing to do with either of these pitchers tonight.
Dylan Cease for obvious reasons as he takes on the Dodgers. That really limits his upside as the Dodgers just don’t strike out. I’m also out on Flaherty as he just hasn’t been very dominant and he’s taking on a Padres team that still has aspirations of the NL West as they are only 2 games behind the Dodgers. They too are a stingy team that doesn’t K much. I expect this to be a low-scoring affair with few K’s. I also expect this game to be played in about 2 hours and 15 minutes.
Kevin Gausman ($8.6k on DK/$9k on FD) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox continue to be a high strike-out team. Over the last week, they’ve struck out 33% of the time and if we look at the last month, the projected lineup for the Red Sox tonight has 5 guys that have a K rate over 30% against righties over the last month. That’s a lot of people striking out nearly a third of the time.
While Gausman has been erratic, he also has some games this season where he’s dialed it back and gotten double-digit K’s. I don’t think he quite gets there today with the double-digit K’s, but with this matchup against a high-strikeout team he does have some upside for us. With a matchup against a Red Sox lineup without its best player, I like this spot a lot for Gausman.
Edward Cabrera ($6.2k on DK/$8.1k on FD) vs. Minnesota Twins
I like the price a whole lot better on DK than FD. I have little to no interest in paying over $8k for Cabrera. $6.2k though? That’s a nice value for Edward Cabrera. The Twins fooled me last night. I really thought they had a chance to turn it around against Weathers and they did not. This is a lineup that has really struggled as a whole. Even with getting Correa back, it’s a team that has now 7 of their last 10 games and has put up little to no offense during that stretch.
They now sit 2 games out of the last Wild Card spot and are on the outside looking in. I could see them struggling again vs. the young right-hander for Miami. If we ignore his last outing against the Dodgers, Cabrera has pitched rather well over the last month. He dominated against both the Nats and Phils and has a couple of good outings vs. the Giants and Rockies. He’s young and he’s inconsistent, but he has a matchup tonight that he should do well in.
Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Zac Gallen vs. San Fran, Cody Bradford vs. Oakland, and Zach Eflin vs. New York. This is a very very weak pitching slate.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Baltimore Orioles vs. Nestor Cortes
A week ago, I would have thrown Nestor Cortes tonight. Now that the Orioles lineup is back to full health with Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, and Ramon Urias returning from the IL, this is a lineup that should get back to pounding pitchers. Even with the O’s clinching a playoff spot last night, I expect them to put their A lineup because a lot of these guys have been hurt and need to get their reps in with Major League pitching.
They also still have a slim chance of overtaking the Yankees. The way to beat Nestor Cortes is with righties. Over the last month, Cortes has only struck them out at about an 18% clip and has allowed a nearly 60% hard-hit rate. He’ll face a lineup that will have 7 righties in it.
Core Plays: Anthony Santander, Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle
Secondary Plays: Gunnar Henderson
Value Plays: James McCann, Ramon Urias
St. Louis Cardinals Vs. Austin Gomber
It’s going to be tough to fade the Cardinals tonight as they take on Austin Gomber. Gomber has mostly struggled over the last month, pitching to an ERA of 4.5 and an xFIP of around 5. He’s given up 4 homers over his last 22 innings of work and 6 barrels. Hitters have a nearly 49% hard-hit rate vs. him as well.
Gomber really struggles vs. righties as they have a nearly .500 slugging % vs. him this season and have a .379 wOBA vs. him over the last month. 21 of the 30 homers he’s hit this season have come from righties. He’ll face a Cardinals lineup tonight that should have upwards of 7 righties in it. It’s going to be a tough night for the Rockies southpaw.
Core Bats: Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, Nolan Arenado
Secondary Plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Brendan Donovan
Value Bats: Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese
Other bats I like tonight will be the Rockies vs. Erick Fedde, Blue Jays vs. Richard Fitts, Angels vs. Davis Martin, White Sox vs. Jose Suarez, and Dbacks vs. Mason Black.
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