Jared Levitt 
Taco Tuesday! We are down to the final 6 days of the regular season and it’s shaping up to be one of the craziest endings we’ve seen in years. Thanks to the additional Wild Card Spot, there are still 9 teams jockeying for the final 6 playoff spots. With that, we have a nice sized 10-game slate of MLB DFS. We have just one high-priced pitcher tonight and then just a bunch of solid arms. There are certainly some different paths we can take tonight with lineup construction.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Logan Gilbert ($9.3k on DK/$9.9k on FD) vs. Houston Astros
This pick is mostly dependent on Yordan Alvarez sitting again. From what it sounded like yesterday, I doubt we see him for a few days and his absence really waters down this Astros lineup. We saw it last night as Bryce Miller threw a gem, striking out 5 over 7 and only allowing 2 hits. Logan Gilbert is a higher-quality pitcher than Miller and has way more K upside.
Over the last month, Gilbert has struck out 37% of the hitters he’s faced. The Mariners are still in this thing and they’ll need Gilbert to have his usual Gilbert outing. He’s been at 20 DK points or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. Should Alvarez sit again, we should see him make it 5 of 6 outings over 20 DK points. He’s my SP1 tonight.
Brandon Pfaadt ($8.2k on DK/$8.6k on FD) vs. San Francisco Giants
Out of nowhere, Brandon Pfaadt threw a masterpiece against the Brewers late last week. He struck out 12 over 7 innings of work and only allowed 1 run to cross the plate. That was after a disastrous outing against the same Milwaukee Brewers team just 5 days earlier. The upside has always been there for Pfaadt as he’s had multiple outings this season in the mid 20 DK point range. He’s been his own worst enemy though at times.
This is a good spot though for him to back up last week’s gem. This is a Giants team that has been severely disappointed this season as they sit 1 game under .500 and are nowhere near the playoffs. Against righties over the last month, they have a 28% K rate and a sub .300 wOBA. Look for Pfaadt to get the W here and have a strong outing. As a DFS player, I’ll love it, but as a Mets fan, I’ll hate it.
Other pitchers that I do like tonight will be Framber Valdez vs. Seattle (just know that Seattle is hitting the ball well), Bailey Ober vs. Miami, Nathan Eovaldi vs. Oakland, and Luis Severino vs. Atlanta.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Boston Red Sox vs. Bowden Francis
As much as I’ve enjoyed the run that Bowden Francis has been on, I do think his day of reckoning is coming, and I think that happens tonight. There are certainly some flags out there that show he’s due for some regression. For starters, he has a 4.69 xFIP over the last month vs. an ERA of just 2. That’s a huge gap and the largest of any pitcher on the mound tonight. He also has an insanely low BABIP of .127 over the last month. That’s not sustainable.
The way to get to him is by using lefties. He has just an 11.1% K rate vs. lefties over the last month and has allowed a nearly 37% flyball rate and a nearly 50% hard-hit rate to them. His only saving grace vs. them is that they also have a .171 BABIP. Again, not sustainable and he’ll be facing a Red Sox lineup that is built with lefty power, even without Rafael Devers.
Core Plays: Jarren Duran, Triston Casas
Secondary Plays: Tyler O’Neill
Value Plays: Masataka Yoshida, Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story
Minnesota Twins vs. Ryan Weathers
The Minnesota Twins are playing for their playoff lives. As it stands right now, the Twins are on the outside looking in and need to win today. Thankfully, they get to face off against Ryan Weathers and a terrible Marlins bullpen. After a more than 3-month absence, Weathers returned last weekend and was greeted by a Dodgers offense that took full advantage of him, scoring 5 runs in just over 4 innings of work. In those 4 innings, the Dodgers hit 3 bombs and had 8 hits.
While the Twins offense doesn’t come close to comparing to the Dodgers offense, they do have some serviceable bats and bats that should do well against Weathers. Throughout his young career, it’s been righties that have done the damage vs. Weathers. 35 of the 43 homers he’s allowed have been to righties and they have a nearly .500 slugging % vs. him.
Core Bats: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis (struggling, but always a home run threat)
Value Bats: Kyle Farmer (pinch-hit risk), Manuel Margot (pinch-hit risk), Carlos Santana
Other bats I like tonight will be both sides of the Coors game (Blackmon narrative/Arenado narrative), White Sox vs. Jack Kochanowicz and Angels vs. Jonathan Cannon.
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