Jared Levitt 
Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and we have a fairly large slate tonight with 10 games of MLB DFS on the docket. With no NFL, that means prize pools are mostly back to normal. With less than 2 weeks left in the season, there are only a handful of teams that have anything left to play for. We can also add the White Sox into the mix as they are playing hard to not be the worst team in the history of baseball.
The NL Wild Card race is heating up as the Mets now have a 1-game lead over the Braves for the final spot and are only 1 game back of the Dbacks for the second spot. The AL Wild Card is just as tight as both the Mariners and Tigers are clinging to their playoff lives as the Tigers sit just 1.5 games behind the Twins and the Mariners are just 2 games out. Say what you want about the expanded playoffs, but it’s kept more teams in play and that has also meant fewer teams “mailing it in” at the end of the season. This also makes for more interesting MLB DFS towards the end of the season.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Cole Ragans ($9.8k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers
While the Tigers lineup has been much improved lately, that’s mostly against righties. The heart and soul of this lineup are Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and Kory Carpenter. All guys that hit from the left side and are way better against righties. I expect A.J. Hinch to load up on righties tonight and that should be music to our ears.
If we look at Ragans season-long stats, his K rate jumps to 32% against righties and just 21% against lefties. Over the last month, those numbers jump to 39% against righties and 22% against lefties. He’s clearly a reverse splits pitcher who should face a lineup of at least 5 righties tonight if not more. The projected lineup for the Tigers tonight has a 34% K rate vs. lefties over the last month. This is a solid matchup for Ragans tonight and he’s going to be my SP1.
Lance Lynn ($7.5k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Lance Lynn returned last week after a more than 2-month absence and boy was he solid. Although it took him just 5 innings to throw 90 pitches, he did a whole bunch with those 90. Across the 5 innings of work, he struck out 7 Reds and allowed just 1 ER on 5 hits. That equated to 19 DK points and if we can get something similar at his current price point, I’m all for it. This matchup says he should as the Pirates are coming into this one with a pretty anemic offense.
Over the last week, they’ve scored just 17 runs, with 2 homers and just 7 barrels. For context, Brent Rooker has 6 all by himself over the last week. They also have struck out 30% of the time. Lynn does have a lower ceiling than most, but he’ll also provide a nice floor. I normally chase higher strike-out pitchers in GPP’s, but with the way pitching has been of late, I also want someone who will give us a nice floor and Lynn does that. He’s nothing flashy, but he should get the job done and with the Cards being a -140 favorite tonight in a low-scoring matchup, we should also get that much-needed 4-point win bonus.
I won’t talk you out of Zack Wheeler tonight. He is a top 5 pitcher in all of baseball and he’s coming into this matchup pitching as well as anyone on this slate. That said, I don’t make it a business of using righties against the Brewers. This is a Brewers lineup that has just a 21% K rate vs. righties over the last month and hits for power and average. He’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate with arguably the worst matchup. I’m out, but if your gut says to go there, go for it.
Other pitchers I like tonight will be Tylor Megill vs. Washington (especially if Abrams is still hurt), Nathan Eovaldi vs. Toronto, and Luis Gill vs. Seattle
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Both sides of the Coors game are again in play tonight. Last night was a dud as they combined to score just 5 runs. That’s a rarity for Coors and I just don’t see it happening again. After making 4 consecutive relief appearances, Jordan Montgomery is back in the rotation tonight and makes his first start since late August. His time in Arizona has been an utter disaster. He has a career-worst 6.25 ERA (I’m not counting 2019) and now enters a hitter’s environment.
I’m going to prioritize all the righties here as they have a .509 slugging % vs him and 12 of the 13 homers he’s allowed this season have been by righties. That means guys like Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle, Michael Toglia, and Brendan Rodgers will be on my radar. If you want to chase some value in Coors, guys like Hunter Goodman and Jordan Beck will do the trick.
On the other side of this one, we have Ryan Feltner. Feltner has been a disaster at home this season as he has a 6.25 ERA in Denver. That said, a lot of the damage done to him at home was earlier in the year. He’s allowed more than 2 ER at home just once over his last 5 outings. The Diamondbacks will always be in play as they are the best offense in baseball. I’m going to be a bit contrarian and side with the Rockies though here as last night they were all in single digits in terms of ownership.
Kansas City Royals vs. Casey Mize
On paper, this seems like a great spot for the Royals against Casey Mize this evening. Across 19 starts this season, Mize just hasn’t been very good. He owns a 4.47 ERA and has more bad starts than he has good ones, especially if we look at recent stats. Since his 2 month stint on the IL, Mize has made 3 starts and has given up at least 3 ER in all of them. While he did K 7 in his last outing against the Rockies, he also managed to give up 4 ER to them.
This game was played in Detroit and not Colorado. When you give up that many to the Rockies away from Coors, well that’s just not ideal. He’s been especially bad vs. righties since coming back as his K rate is just 13% and he’s allowed a .310 ISO and a .379 wOBA. It just so happens that the bread and butter of this team is righty.
Core Plays: Bobby MVP Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Tommy Pham
Secondary Plays: Michael Massey,
Value Plays: MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Isbel, Freddy Fermin
Chicago White Sox vs. Griffin Canning
Don’t look now, but the Chicago White Sox are smoking hot. Winners of 3 in a row, they’ll look to make it 4 in a row tonight vs. one of my all-time favorite pitchers to stack against in Griffin Canning. Over his last 10 starts, Canning has given up at least 6 ER in 4 of them. Most pitchers can go years without giving up that many 6 ER games and Canning has done it in the span of less than 2 months.
IMO, he’s one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball and he continues to be a fantasy haven for opposing hitters. Even though he’s facing a terrible team in the White Sox, he’ll be facing a team that is actually hitting the ball well right now. They are also extremely inexpensive, making paying up for either pitching or another pricey stack very easy.
Core and Value Bats: Andrew Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, and Nickey Lopez
Other bats I like tonight will be the Cubs vs. Mitch Spence, Mets vs. Mitchell Parker, and A’s vs. Jordan Wicks.
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