Jared Levitt 
TGIF! It’s Friday and there’s no football this week. We have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS tonight and it’s a slate that brings back one of the best pitchers of our generation in Jacob deGrom. This is a slate that at first glance brings a lot of punch. What is also brings is a not a single pitcher priced over $10k on DK and just one priced over $10k on the duel. We should be able to spend for whatever bats we want, for the most part.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
One of the night’s questions will be what to do with Dylan Cease. This is a dream matchup for him as the Giants offense has been very suspect over the last couple of weeks. They were blanked by Frankie Montas last night and if ever there was a matchup that would enable him to get back to his glory days, this is it. We said that however of his last 2 outings, one against this same Giants team less than a week ago. I’m out on Cease tonight. I’m unwilling to pay a premium for a pitcher who hasn’t topped 20 DK points in nearly 2 months. Cease gem incoming.
Another question of the night will be what to do with Jacob deGrom. deGrom is making his first appearance in the bigs since early last season after missing a whole bunch of time with yet another arm injury. The upside with deGrom is unmatched and he’s at an insane discount tonight being priced at just $8.5k. There isn’t another pitcher in the game that is as dominant as deGrom when he’s healthy.
He’s facing a high-strikeout team in the Mariners and we just saw Kumar Rocker strike out 7 in just 4 innings of work. The chances of that happening for deGrom tonight are way higher than deGrom failing so he will 100% be in my pool of pitchers tonight. We may never see this price tag on deGrom ever again.
Yusei Kikuchi ($9.2k on DK/$10.5k on FD) vs. Los Angeles Angels
I’ll start by saying that I like the price on DK a whole lot more than I do on FD. Since being traded to the Astros, Yusei Kikuchi has been a completely different pitcher. Over the last month, he’s been really strong as he has an ERA of 3.33 and an xFIP and SIERRA which is nearly a full run lower. He’s also striking out a ton of hitters as evidenced by his nearly 30% K rate over the last month.
He’ll be facing off against an Angels team that struggles mightily vs. lefties. Over the last month, the projected lineup for the Angels tonight has a nearly 35% K rate and a wOBA that’s just downright silly at .189. While the ISO is impressive at .152, if you can’t hit the ball, it doesn’t matter how much power you have. I’m looking at Kikuchi being the highest-scoring pitcher on this slate. He’s my SP1.
Brady Basso ($4k on DK/$6k on FD) vs. Chicago White Sox
An interesting arm tonight is going to be Brady Basso vs. the White Sox. Basso is coming off a stellar first start against the Tigers last Saturday that saw him go 6 innings while not allowing an ER and striking out 6. In the minors this season he has been pretty good as he’s appeared in 16 games at AAA, starting 12 of them. He has some K upside as his K/9 in AAA was over 10.
He’s essentially facing a minor-league team tonight in the White Sox. This White Sox team is historically bad and are almost a lock to break the ’62 Mets record. They sit 81 games under .500 and will be 82 games after tonight. Over the last month, they’ve been terrible vs. lefties as they have just .025 ISO, a .235 wOBA and a 31% K rate. He’s risky because he’s only making his second big-league start. The upside is there though.
Other pitchers that I’ll have interest in tonight will be Bailey Ober vs. the Reds, Tanner Bibbee vs. Tampa, and Kevin Gausman vs. St. Lous.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Chicago Cubs vs. Austin Gomber
With spending down on pitching tonight, I’ll have plenty of spare change around to be able to spend up for the Cubs in Colorado tonight. While Gomber hasn’t pitched that poorly recently over the last month, his xFIP and SIERA are both nearly 2 runs higher than his ERA. This indicates that we can see some regression coming his way. There are several factors I’m looking at as to why there’s going to be regression.
His fly ball rate is massive at 51%, his hard-hit rate is massive at 41%, and his BABIP is extremely low .247. He’s also striking out just 18% of the batters over the last month. You can only get so lucky for so long and his luck is going to run out this evening against a solid Cubs lineup. I’m going to be mostly focused on righties here as they tend to do the most damage vs. Gomber. 20 of the 27 homers he’s given up this season have been to righties.
Core Plays: Ian Happ, Isaac Parades, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner
Secondary Plays: Cody Bellinger, PCA, Patrick Wisdom
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Freddy Peralta
In order to be different tonight, I’m going to rock the Diamondbacks vs. Freddy P tonight. This is nothing against Peralta, he’s a good pitcher. But he almost never goes deep into his games and this Diamondbacks offense is absolutely loaded. To date, they’ve scored 802 runs. The next closest team? The Yankees at 736 runs. They are nearly 70 runs clear of the second-highest-scoring team.
Would I stack the Dbacks against a pitcher like deGrom or Sale or Skubal? No, not even in a million years. But against any other pitcher in the game I would and Peralta is very beatable. His xFIP and SIERA over the last month are both well above 5 and his K rate is only at 18%. This may completely blow up in my face but as I like to say just like Ricky Bobby, if you’re not first, you’re last.
Core Bats: Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, Christian Walker, Joc Pederson
Secondary Bats: Adrian Del Castillo, Ketel Marte
Value Bats: Pavin Smith
Other bats I like tonight will be the Brewers vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Twins vs. Julian Aguiar, Yankees vs. Tanner Houck, and A’s vs. Garrett Crochet and the White Sox pen.
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