Jared Levitt 
Hump Day! It’s Wednesday and we have ourselves a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. In this slate, we have some high-strikeout high-walk guys in decent matchups. On DK, we don’t have a single arm that’s priced over $10k tonight. What we also don’t have are the White Sox so we won’t be baited again in what should have been a dream matchups.
Before we dig into tonight’s slate, I want to say a Thank You first. A year ago today I was diagnosed with Stage 4 Cancer and many of you had reached out with words of support and prayers and boy did that help me get through what will hopefully be the wildest ride of my life. Thankfully, that’s all in the past now and to celebrate, I’ll be taking down the Battery on DK tonight.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Hunter Brown ($9k on DK/$9.4k on FD) vs. Oakland Athletics
I’m looking for Hunter Brown to continue his stellar pitching tonight. Over the last month, Brown has been brilliant. He’s allowed just 5 ER over his last 6 starts and he’s faced some stiff competition in the Royals, Orioles, Red Sox, and Rangers over that stretch. Tonight he gets a good matchup against an A’s team that has struggled offensively over the last week. Over the last week, the A’s have scored just 20 runs and are hitting just .209 collectively. They also have only a 6% barrel rate.
While the A’s offense has been much improved this season, they have become stagnant again and they’ll be facing one of the Astros top pitchers in Brown. The Astros hold a slim 4.5-game lead over the Mariners and need every win they can get. Look for them to add another one tonight thanks to Brown.
Blake Snell ($9.8k on DK/$9.6k on FD) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
When I went to bed last night, I had this whole concept of a plan to use Blake Snell as my SP1. As we get closer to lock, make sure to jump into discord to make sure that’s still my plan. When I target the Brewers with pitchers, it’s normally with lefties. Overall, they are a much higher K team vs. righties than lefties. The projected lineup for the Brewers tonight has 6 bats (Adames actually has the highest) who have K rates of at least 25% vs. lefties.
While they can certainly hit for some power, they can also k a good bunch. Snell is an enigma. When his command is on, he has as much K upside as anyone in the game. But when he’s off, as evidenced by his last start vs. the Dbacks, he’s tough to stomach. I would never call him safe, but I’m chasing the upside with him in this matchup. He has multiple games above this season over 30 DK points and I think he has that potential tonight at a reasonable price for him.
Other arms I have an interest in tonight will be Michael King vs. Seattle, Cole Ragans vs. New York, and maybe Luis Gil vs. KC.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Los Angeles Angels vs. Zebby Matthews
Do I think that Zebby Matthews is bad as he’s been pitching? No, I do not. He’s been somewhat unlucky of late as hitters have an insanely high .366 BABIP against him. While that’s high, so is his HR/FB rate. He’s allowed 6 homers in the last 22 innings and those homers aren’t accounted for in his BABIP. He’s been giving up a ton of hard contact as hitters have a nearly 40% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last month. He’s also given up 10 barrels in the 22 innings of work.
He’ll probably see some positive regression at some point, but I just don’t see it happening soon. We want to attack him with lefties as he hasn’t figured out how to get them out just yet. Lefties have a mind-boggling .412 ISO vs. him over the last month and a .508 wOBA. Just comical numbers. All 6 of the homers he’s allowed so far have been to lefties and that’s equated to a .784 slugging %.
Core and Value Plays: MickeyMoniak, Nolan Schanuel, Niko Kavadas
Secondary Plays: Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, Brandon Drury, Logan O’Hoppe
Houston Astros vs. Joey Estes
While Joey Estes hasn’t pitched overly poorly this season, he has been giving up what I look for when I stack against pitchers and that’s home runs. K’s are king for pitchers and home runs are king for hitters. Over his last 28 innings of work, Estes has given up 7 homers and has also given up a healthy amount of barrels at 8. On the year, Estes has allowed 18 homers in his 110 innings of work.
Against Estes, I’m not going to be overly picky with splits as each side has 9 homers against him. Both sides also have very comparable OPS’s and wOBAs. That said, with the Astros a lot of their power comes from the left side of the plate thanks to the man, the myth, the Legend Yordan Alvarez
Core Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz
Secondary Bats: Jeremy Pena
Value Bats: Chas McCormick (if he plays), Jon Singleton, Ben Gamel
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Bryan Woo, Cubs vs. Bobby Miller, Reds vs. Lance Lynn, and Royals vs. Luis Gil. I don’t mind the Twins but just know you need to go all or nothing there. Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme ground ball pitcher so chasing homers will be tough.
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