Jared Levitt 
TGIF! It’s the first Friday after football season has started and as I’m sure you’ve noticed this morning, contests are smaller. This is something that we’ll be dealing with for the rest of the season. That’s ok though, because one thing we’ll also be dealing with is dead lineups as people that won money playing NFL last night will be trying their hand at MLB. Tonight we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS. This is a slate that is very top-heavy with solid pitching. I’ll be spending up on pitching tonight and looking to find value with bats.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Before diving into my top 2 pitchers I want to talk about Tarik Skubal. He is the most expensive pitcher on both slates tonight. On FD, he’s at a nearly unheard-of $12k. I’m fading him tonight. If he goes off, I’m ok with the fade. There are flags to be seen with him IMO. He’s already touched a career-high in innings at 168. For the first time in his career, he hit the coveted 200k milestone so there’s little else to accomplish. With 21 games to go, they are 5 games out of the last Wild Card spot.
While they still have a shot, Fangraphs has their playoff hopes at just 7.5%. I just can’t see them pushing their star player where they don’t have to. I’m also not in love with the matchup vs. an A’s team that has just a 20% K rate vs. lefties over the last month. I don’t think this is a ceiling-type game and because of that, I’m not spending top $.
Zack Wheeler ($10k on DK/$11.5k on FD) vs. Miami Marlins
Where I do want to spend up on pitching tonight will be Zack Wheeler. The Phillies do still have a comfortable 8-game lead over both the Braves and Mets, but if I were the Phillies I’d want to clinch sooner rather than later. They are massive favorites (-225 on BetMGM) tonight and getting that 4 points for the W on DK is almost a given. He’s coming into this one in peak form, with a 2.01 ERA over the last month and allowing just 3 homers in 31 innings.
He’s someone that we can almost always rely on with a heavy pitch count and he’s still well under last year’s 192 innings. With a matchup against a terrible Marlins team, 6-7 innings with 7-8 K’s is well within range for what we’ve seen from Wheeler this season. With all that said, I’m way more apt to play him on DK than I am on FD this evening. That FD price is a little steep for me.
Michael King ($9.8k on DK/$10k on FD) vs. San Francisco Giants
I’ll never feel 100% comfortable throwing Michael King, but I do believe this is a great spot for him tonight. The Giants offense has been absolutely anemic of late. Merril Kelly was able to dominate them yesterday with 8 K’s over 7 innings of work. In the 3 starts prior to that, Kelly had given up 14 runs. This is a Giants team that is really struggling right now, even with their walk-off win yesterday.
The projected lineup for the Giants tonight has a nearly 28% K rate vs. righties over the last month with a wOBA of just .287. I’m chasing here, but this is a ceiling-type game for King. As long as the command is there for King tonight, the world is his oyster and the DK points will follow.
12:56 Update: Sean Manaea is now starting for the Mets. He’s now my SP2 over King. King is still in play, but i absolutey love Manaea tonight. I’ll be going with Wheeler/King as my pitchers on DK and Manaea is very much in play on FD.
Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Cole Ragans vs. Minnesota, Erick Fedde vs. Seattle, and Dean Kremer vs. Tampa. I’m also out on Framber Valdez. He’s been an absolute beast of late, but I don’t make it a habit of using lefties vs. the Dbacks. Even without Marte, they are an extremely tenacious lineup vs. lefties. They chased Snell after just one inning yesterday.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Mets vs. Brandon Williamson or Fernando Cruz
Meaningful September baseball. That’s what the Mets are playing right now and it brings tears to my eyes. With the Braves loss last night, the Mets moved into a tie with them for the final Wild Card spot in the NL. They are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, with a 7-game winning streak and winners of 8 of their last 10. They get a matchup tonight that will make it easier for them to continue their winning ways.
So far I’ve seen reports of either Brandon Williamson or Fernando Cruz starting for the Reds tonight. What this more than likely means is that we’ll have a bullpen game tonight for the Reds That will put the Mets in a position to put up a bunch of runs against a bullpen that has a 6.16 ERA and a 5.52 FIP over the last 2 weeks.
Core Plays: Francisco Lindor
Secondary Plays: Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, JD Martinez, Starling Marte, Brandon NImmo
Value Plays: Jesse Winker, Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil
Chicago White Sox vs. Nick Pivetta
I want to spend up on pitching and the Mets (Lindor specifically) tonight so I need to find value. This may be the craziest thing I’ve done all year. Is it a smart move? That’s very debatable. But again, I don’t have much money left over after using 2 high-priced pitchers and the Mets. There isn’t a single bat in this lineup that’s over $4k (for good reason). It’s also Nick Pivetta.
He can strike out hitters with the best of them. But he can also give up runs and homers like the worst of them. I’m chasing here and I 100% know it. I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here because between the 24 homers he’s given up this year, it’s pretty even split. That said, he’s been worse against righties this season from a slugging % and K %.
Value Bats (I’m interested in): Nicky Lopez, Andrew Benintendi, Andrew Vaugh, Gavin Sheets, Dominic Fletcher
Other bats I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Mason Black, Royals vs. Zebby Matthews, Angels vs. Gerson Garabito, Rangers vs. Samuel Aldegheri, and Red Sox vs. Davis Martin.
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