Jared Levitt 
Hump Day! It’s Wednesday and that means a full night of baseball. Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 10-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, we have a pretty wide open slate. On DK, we don’t have a single pitcher priced over $10k. On FD however, we have some pitchers that have some crazy price tags attached to them that will make it easy to fade them. From a bat perspective, we have a few glaring spots that we’ll want to exploit.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Zac Gallen ($8.4k on DK/$9.3k on FD) vs. San Francisco Giants
I’m much more likely to use Zac Gallen on DK than I am on FD thanks to the $900 reduction in his price. Has Gallen been the stud we’ve become accustomed to over the last month or so? He has not. He’s also been extremely unlucky as hitters have a massive .358 BABIP against him over the last month. That’s one of the highest numbers of anyone pitching tonight. Only Charlie Morton and Seth Lugo are higher. He’s due for some positive regression and it will come against a struggling offense in the Giants.
The Giants have been striking out in droves of late and that makes this more of a ceiling-type game for Gallen. We saw Ryne Nelson throw a gem vs. them last night and there’s no reason to think that Gallen can’t either. He’s cheap enough that a couple of runs won’t kill us. I love this spot for Gallen tonight.
JP Sears ($7.7k on DK/$8.5k on FD) vs. Seattle Mariners
As you can tell by now, I’m spending down on pitching tonight. The 3 most expensive pitchers on this slate (Eovaldi/Gray/Imanaga) all have a lot of risk in their starts tonight that I don’t want in my life. Sears is coming into this one tonight pitching rather well. Over the last month, he really has just one poor start and has had a quality start in 5 of his last 6 outings.
While he’s not typically a high strikeout guy, this is a matchup where he has some strikeout upside. This Mariners team is a very high strikeout team. Over the last month, this projected lineup for the Mariners has a 29% K rate vs. lefties. They also have a .261 wOBA. They are a free-swinging team. Look for Sears tonight to continue his strong wave of pitching.
Other pitchers that I do like tonight will be Charlie Morton vs. Colorado, Colin Rea vs. St. Louis, and Tylor Megill vs. Boston. I’m out on Eovaldi vs. the Yankees, Gray vs. a Milwaukee team that’s much better vs. righties, and I’m also out on what should be a chalky Imanaga.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Hayden Birdsong
I don’t normally make it a habit of stacking teams in San Fran, but I’m making an exception tonight. The Dbacks and Giants proved that runs can be scored en mass in San Francisco as they combined for 15 runs last night. A lot of this was due to a shotty defense and a shotty bullpen. We’re getting to attack a pitcher in Birdsong that just isn’t quite Major League-ready.
Over his last 5 starts, he’s allowed at least 5 ER in 3 of them. In 7 of his 11 starts this season, he’s walked at least 3 hitters. This has equated to a pretty high WHIP of 1.43. While he certainly does possess some K upside, he also allows just too many runners on currently to be successful. He had a 5 ERA in AAA this season and it’s even higher in the Majors.
Core Plays: Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson, Jake McCarthy
Secondary Plays: Eugenio Suarez, Christian Walker, Adrian Del Castillo
Value Plays: Pavin Smith, Luis Guillorme, Geraldo Perdomo
Chicago Cubs vs. Domingo German
No need to get into specifics, but I would love nothing more than to see Domingo German get rocked tonight. With how he’s pitched so far this season, that is very possible. So far in 2024, he’s pitched to a 6.11 ERA and has walked nearly everyone. Last time he faced the Cubbies he gave up 8 ER in just 2 innings of relief. While that’s an anomaly, it’s not out of the question that he gets hammered tonight.
After facing Skenes last night, it will almost seem like the Cubs will be getting beachballs thrown at them this evening. I’m looking for them to get back on track after getting shut out last night. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as German won’t go long and then we’ll get a bullpen that has been terrible of late.
Core Bats: Ian Happ, Isaac Parades, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner
Secondary Bats: Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch
Value Bats: PCA, Dansby Swanson
Other bats I like tonight will be the A’s vs. George Kirby, Guardians vs. Seth Lugo, All the Dodgers vs. Griffin Canning, Braves vs. Bradley Blalock
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