Jared Levitt 
Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and that means a large slate. Tonight we have ourselves a 10-game slate of MLB DFS on both sites. This is a slate that has some very exploitable spots. While I’ve been making a habit of fading top-priced pitchers on slates, I’m making an exception for Chris Sale tonight as he’s in a prime spot to have a ceiling game. We also have some other solid pitchers in great spots.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Chris Sale ($10.8k on DK/$11.6k on FD) vs. Colorado Rockies
I’ll start by saying that the price is way more palatable on DK than it is on FD. This is a smash spot for Chris Sale tonight. The Rockies really struggle vs. lefties, both hitting for power and striking out. The projected lineup tonight for the Rockies has a .299 wOBA, a .088 ISO, and a 25% K rate vs. lefties over the last month. Take them out of Colorado and those numbers are even worse. The comeback for Chris Sale has been fun to watch, even for a Mets fan like myself.
He’s pitched the most innings in a season since 2018 and is set to pass that number if he goes 5 innings tonight. His K/9 are the highest they’ve been since 2019 and his ERA is the lowest it’s been 2018. He’s almost a lock for the Cy Young award and very well could be in the running for Comeback Player of the Year as well. His price is high, but he’s worth tonight in this matchup that has him as a -410 favorite. Anything can happen, but I like the chances of Sale having a monster outing with double-digit K’s tonight.
Ryne Nelson ($7.2k on DK/$8.8k on FD) vs. San Francisco Giants
SP2 is where I plan on saving some money tonight. The San Francisco Giants are playing some terrible baseball right now. They are 3-7 over their last 10 and that has dropped them to 2 games under .500 and 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. Their season is just about over and their offense is to blame. Over the last week, they’ve scored just 19 times while striking out 31% of the time. Against righties over the last month, tonight’s projected Giants lineup has a 26% k rate and a .281 wOBA.
They’ve been terrible and that sets up great for Ryne Nelson. While he may never win a Cy Young, he’s been very serviceable. Over the last month across 31 innings of work, he has just a 3.19 ERA and a very respectable 27% K rate. I preach ceiling-type games when chasing pitchers and this is it for him. This is a ceiling-type game for Nelson tonight. The concern for him at times is homers, but with this game being played in an extreme pitchers’ park, that really limits the concern for bombs.
The other pitchers I have interest in tonight will be David Peterson vs. Red Sox (low ceiling, high floor – and it’s his birthday), Luis Castillo vs. Oakland, and maybe Chris Bassitt vs. Philly. Bassitt has had really wonky splits where he’s giving up a ton of power vs. lefties but has also been striking them out at an even higher rate. That said, I more than likely won’t be straying from Sale/Nelson tonight. Make sure to drop into discord before lock to get my final pitching thoughts.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Steven Matz
Steven Matz makes his “long-awaited” return tonight after missing more than 4 months on the IL. He’s coming into this one facing a scorching-hot Brewers team. Of the teams in action tonight, no one has scored more runs over the last week than the Brewers and only the A’s (yes, those A’s) have hit more homers. Matz may go down as one of the more disappointing pitchers of his generation.
He came up with a ton of fan-fare, only to continuously disappoint. This season in his 6 starts, he’s posted an ERA over 6 thanks to giving up at least 4 ER in half of his starts earlier this year. Righties crushed him earlier this season with an OPS of .911 and a wOBA of .392. With this matchup and then a bullpen that is nothing more than average, the Brewers should continue to their strong play and look to wrap up the NL Central in the next week or so.
While I normally reserve Willy Adames for matchups where he faces a righty, you just can’t deny what he’s doing on this heater that he’s on. Over the last week, Adames has homered 6 times and has driven in 13. He’s also scored 8 times. He’s one of the hottest hitters in the league right now and I just don’t see Matz and the Cards bullpen cooling him off.
After Adames, I’ll look to guys like Jackson Chourio and William Contreras. Of the guys in this lineup, Contreras is probably the best lefty smasher as he has an OPS that’s approaching .900 against them this season. Other guys I like in this lineup today will be Gary Sanchez, Rhys Hoskins, Blake Perkins, and Joey Ortiz. That said, fit em all where you can.
Atlanta Braves vs. Kyle Freeland
After the Brewers, I’m going to look to the Braves for some offense tonight. They get a great matchup vs. a pitcher who is just not good. Kyle Freeland is nothing more than a gas can and followed by him we have an awful bullpen that has nearly 5 ERA over the last 2 weeks. Freeland is having his usual crappy season, with a 5.51 ERA through 16 starts. This all can’t be blamed on starting in Coors as his ERA from Coors is 7.34 this season.
While that’s been a bit unlucky, he has no one to blame but himself. You just can’t be a successful major league hitter allowing a greater than 85% K rate and a more than 2.5 BB/9. His WHIP this season is also terrible at nearly 1.5. I’m going to attack him with the righties in this lineup as they have an OPS that’s over .850. All 14 of the homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties.
Core Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Jorge Soler
Secondary Bats: Matt Olson, Michael Harris
Value Bats: Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy, Gio Urshela, Orlando Arcia, Whitt Merrifield
Other bats I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Kutter Crawford, Dodgers vs. Reid Detmers, Yankees vs. Andrew Heaney, Phillies (risky) vs. Chris Bassitt
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
