Jared Levitt 
Taco Tuesday! With the regular season wrapping up yesterday, that means we have finally made it to playoff season. Today we have a 4 game slate of MLB DFS with it being the Wild Card round. This is a slate that will be mostly top-heavy with pitching. Most of the teams were able to save their aces for today so that will more than likely translate to a whole bunch of low-scoring games, similar to opening day.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Framber Valdez ($8.5k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers
While the Tigers’ run into the postseason was magical, I do think their time comes to end this series. This a Tigers lineup that its core is all lefty and one that has struggled mightily vs. lefties down the stretch. They have a 31% K rate over the last month and a sub .280 wOBA. A matchup vs. Framber Valdez is not going to be ideal for them.
Against lefties over the last month, Framber Valdez has a nearly 43% K rate and has allowed a wOBA of just .224. Yes, those numbers are a bit extreme, but if we look at his season as a whole he’s been extremely strong vs. lefties with a 30% K rate. He will all but neutralize guys like Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and Colt Keith. Look for this one to be a very low-scoring affair with the Astros ending up on top.
Corbin Burnes ($8.3k on DK) vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals mostly limped into the playoffs, struggling on the offensive side of things during the last month or so of the season. Over the last month of the season, they had a wOBA of just .300 against righties and a K rate hovering around 25%. If we look at more recent data, over the last week they scored just 16 runs and homered 3 times.
With Burnes, we have someone coming into the playoffs in peak form. Over the last month, he has pitched to an ERA of just 1.20 and had a K rate of nearly 28%. He has 3 straight starts with at least 25 DK points and with a solid matchup today, he should make it a 4th at a very reasonable priced of $8.3k.
The other pitcher that will be in my limited pool today will be Tarik Skubal. He is matchup-proof and should be able to dominate the Astros, especially if Alvarez has to sit again. I’m siding with Framber though in this matchup because he’s cheaper and faces a far weaker lineup.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
San Diego Padres vs. Ian Anderson
With the last-minute injury to Chris Sale and having played 2 yesterday, the Braves rotation for this Padres series is going to be less than ideal. Although they’ll be able to use Max Fried, they’re also going to have to throw the likes of Ian Anderson. Anderson hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2022. That season was dreadful for him as he finished with an ERA of 5 and a BB/9 of more than 4.
Over his short career, Andeson has been more of a reverse-splits pitcher. That will make for a tough day as the Padres’ core is right-handed. There’s also a chance the Braves pivot and go with Bryce Elder instead of Ian Anderson. Regardless, on a day with very strong pitching, both Anderson and Elder would be weaker than the 7 other starters.
Core Plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill
Secondary Plays: Jurickson Profar
Value Plays: Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, Donovan Solano, Kyle Higashioka
New York Mets vs. Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta is not the same pitcher that he was a few years ago. His K/9 of 10.36 was one of the lowest of his career and his BB/9 3.52 was the highest it’s been since 2020. For the first time since 2019, he finished a season with a FIP over 4 and his xFIP of 3.93 was the highest it’s been 2019. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t be calling most of these numbers out because they really aren’t that bad. That said though, when compared to his peer group of Game 1 Wild Card starts they rank near the bottom.
His September xFIP of 4.35 is more than a .5 run higher than anyone else on this slate. This will set up for the Mets to have the best chance of putting up some runs. Over the final 30 days, Peralta struggled mightily vs. righties as they had a .415 ISO vs. him and a .451 wOBA. His K rate also dropped to 22%. The Mets power mostly comes from the right hand side.
Core Bats: Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, JD Martinez, Francisco LIndor
Value Bats: Francisco Alvarez, Starling Marte, Jose Iglesias
The other lineup I really like today will be the Orioles vs. Cole Ragans. They are finally healthy and it showed over the last week of the season. They can get to Ragans today.
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