Jared Levitt 
We made it to the weekend! And oh what a weekend of baseball it will be. While there are 2 slates of MLB DFS today, I’ll be focused on the main slate starting at 6:40 pm EST. This is a tricky-looking slate at first glance with one of the top arms in all of baseball facing off against one of the best lineups in the game. We also have a couple of guys making their season and major league debuts.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Tyler Glasnow ($10.4k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves
The former Tampa Bay Rays start has been absolutely dealing to start the season. Through 7 starts, Glasnow has just a 2.72 ERA with an xFIP that is nearly identical at 2.63. Outside of 1 dud vs. the Nationals, he’s been filthy all year. He has 19 K’s over his last 2 outings and has reached double-digit strikeouts twice so far this year. His K/9 is well over 11 and his control has also been strong as his BB/9 is just 2.51.
Glasnow has also reached 30 DK in each of his last 2 outings and has been over 20 DK in all but 2 starts this season. Even though the Braves have a strong lineup, he can dominate in this matchup as the Braves have been susceptible to righties this season. They have a 23% K rate vs. them this season so there will definitely be strikeouts to be had.
Framber Valdez ($7.8k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners
Framber Valdez below $8k? Sign me up, every day. Valdez is making just his second start since coming back from the IL. If it’s anything like his last start, we should be perfectly ok with the end result. Even though he pitched in Coors, Valdez still threw a gem. He went 5 strong innings in that one, allowing just 2 ER and striking out 6. He’ll get the luxury tonight of facing off against one of the most underperforming lineups in all of baseball. I
highlighted yesterday the Mariners’ struggles vs. righties. They’ve also been struggling vs. lefties as well. They have a nearly 27% K rate and have a sub .300 wOBA. Their power has also been missing as well. This is another matchup that Valdez should do well in.
Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Logan Gilbert vs. Houston and Christian Scott (only if they add him obviously) vs. Tampa.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Baltimore Orioles vs. Andrew Abbott
The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball against lefties this season. Through the first month of the season, they have a .361 wOBA, a .824 OPS, and an ISO of .208. In terms of handedness, they have the best matchup on paper today. It also helps that the pitcher they are facing today has been pitching “just ok”. Abbott really only has 1 clunker this season and that was a 4 run performance against the Rangers in his last outing. His xFIP however is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his xFIP.
There’s going to be some more regression from him and that’s going to continue today vs. the Orioles. Abbott has been giving up just way too much contact at nearly 85%. Against a really good lineup like the Orioles, that’s too much and is going to cause him some struggles. We want the righties here as Abbott has struggled vs. them and has been really good vs. lefties.
The 2 righties here that I’m going to lean on the most are going to be Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg. They are both rather pricey tonight at over $5k on DK, but both guys are raking and should be able to take full advantage of this matchup. So far this season, Mountcastle has a .605 slugging % vs. lefties and a .434 wOBA. He should smash tonight.
Should he make the lineup tonight (he should), I’m going to also plug in Jorge Matteo and his ..621 slugging % vs. lefties. He’s also very cheap tonight at $3.2k and will make paying for Mountcastle and Westburg a little easier. We also can’t forget about Adley Rutschman. He leads the team in slugging vs. lefties this season with an insane .694 %. This lineup is in a great spot to put up a large amount of runs.
Kansas City Royals vs. Dane Dunning
After putting up 7 runs last night, they get another matchup that should lead to another outburst of runs. Outside of 2 starts, Dunning has looked very pedestrian this season. He’s given up at least 3 ER in all but 2 of his 6 starts this season. In terms of giving up hard contact, Dunning is having a career-worst start to his season. Hitters have a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him and a nearly 17% barrel rate.
Those are just eye-popping numbers and if that continues against a very good Royals lineup, we could be talking about a slate-leading performance for the Royals tonight. With Dunning, we mostly want to prioritize getting any lefties into our stack. They have far and away better numbers than righties. That said, righties are still very much in play here
Knowing that lefties crush Dunning, I’m going to make sure to rock Vinnie Pasquantino into this stack. His numbers haven’t looked that great of late, but he’s consistently putting solid contact into play as he leads the team in barrels over the last week. He’s due for some positive regression and that should come against Dunning.
Another lefty I like here will be Michael Massey. He’s been great of late, with 2 homers and 7 hits over the last week. He’s also a very strong value play at just $2.8k on DK tonight. MJ Melendez is also very much in play. While I favor the lefties here, the stars of the team are Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt. These 2 are always in play and tonight is no different.
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Dbacks vs. Michael King, Dodgers vs. Bryce Elder, and Reds vs. John Means.
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