Jared Levitt 
TGIF and Happy Patrick Corbin Day to those that celebrate! Yes, my favorite punching bag is throwing on this slate and is throwing against a dynamic offense. Tonight, we have ourselves a massive 13-game slate of MLB DFS. As I already noted, I’ll be picking on our boy Patrick Corbin today. With 26 teams in action, we surprisingly only have one pitcher over $10k tonight. We have a bunch of solid arms on the mound though that are in a pretty cost-effective position. That will make it easy to pay up for hitting tonight.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Marcus Stroman ($8.4k on DK) vs. San Francisco Giants
I really like this price point for Marcus Stroman. It’s normally reserved for someone that has middle of the road strikeout stuff and that’s exactly what we have with Stroman. Over the last month, Stroman has had a strikeout rate of just over 17%. Some of that has to do with 2 low strikeout games over the last month against Minnesota and Detroit. In 3 of his 5 starts in May, he went for at least 5 strikeouts. If we can get 5 strikeouts from him tonight at this price, I’ll take it. With a date against the Giants, I think he can do it.
The Giants have been starting to strike out a bit more than they have been as they have a 25% K rate over the last week. They also haven’t faired too well in the power department this season vs. righties. The projected lineup tonight for the Giants has just a .119 ISO and .265 wOBA vs. righties this season. Stroman definitely has 20 20-point upside for us tonight. On this slate, without a pitcher that has 30 30-point upside, I’ll take that.
Tanner Houck ($9.6k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers
Tanner Houck is quietly turning into the ace of this Red Sox staff. Through his first 11 starts of the 2024 season, Houck has an ERA below 2. While we can’t expect him to have that all year long, his xFIP and FIP are both under 3. We’re talking about a pitcher who is pitching extremely well this season and isn’t one that is getting lucky. His control this season has been impeccable. His BB/9 are a career-low number of 1.65. That’s half of what it was last season.
He’s also doing a great job of getting hitters to chase as his chase rate is over 31%. Only Dylan Cease has a higher number on this slate than him. The Tigers are a team that typically struggles vs. righties as they have a K rate over 24% and an iso under .160. He’s had way more starts this season being over 20 DK points than under 10 DK points. Look for him to continue with this strong start to the season in this great matchup.
The other pitchers I like tonight will be Walker Buehler vs. Colorado, Dylan Cease (I’m not forcing him tonight) vs. Kansas City, Tobias Myers vs. Chicago, Jose Siriano vs. Seattle (he may end up being in my top 2), and Luis Severino vs. Arizona.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Cleveland Guardians vs. Patrick Corbin
Not sure what needs to be said on this one. Patrick Corbin is one of my favorite pitchers to target with hitters. More often than not, he gives up a healthy amount of runs. He now has started 11 games. Out of those 11 games, he’s given up at least 4 ER in 7 of them. For those without a calculator in hand, that means he’s allowed less than 4 ER in just 4 starts this season. He’s been especially bad in his last 2 games, giving up a total of 12 ER and 5 bombs.
For the full season, he’s already allowed a hard-hit rate over 47%. That’s the highest it’s ever been in his career and he’s had some high seasons. I’m not going to shy away from lefties in this stack, but I really want to focus on the righties. 8 of the 9 homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties. Corbin has been especially bad away from DC this season, with a .424 wOBA against compared to “just” .365 at home. He’s on the road tonight, we’re stacking against him.
Core Bats: Jose Ramirez, David Fry, Tyler Freeman
Secondary Bats: Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor
Value Bats: Johnathan Rodriguez, Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio
Baltimore Orioles vs. Aaron Civale
Aaron Civale is getting hit, and he’s getting hit hard! During May, Civale has made 5 starts. In all but one of those starts, he allowed a hard-hit rate over of 45%. He also gave up a home run in each of those 5 starts. Civale has had multiple starts this season giving up at least 4 or more runs to opposing offenses. He’s been bad and he’s someone that we want to stack against tonight.
While he’s been bad against both sides of the plate, I’m going to be heavily focused on the lefties in this lineup. Lefties have a .511 slugging % vs. him this season and a .376 wOBA. He’s going to be facing off against an Orioles lineup tonight that should be able to throw out at least 6 lefties in this lineup. Good luck sir!
Core Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins
Secondary Bats: Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Colton Cowser
Value Bats: Jorge Mateo
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Braves vs. JP Sears, Red Sox vs. Kent Maeda, Pirates vs. Jose Berrios, and Blue Jays vs. Bailey Falter
Favorite Home Run Props
Ryan O’Hearn +600 BetMGM
David Fry +600 BetMGM
Rafael Devers +360 FD
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