Jared Levitt 
Hope you all had a great MDW. I also hope you were able to take some time to reflect on the memories of those who served and are no longer with us. Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 10-game slate of MLB DFS. We have some solid pitching. We also have some really great spots for bats. It’s shaping up to be a really fun slate that can take us in a few different directions.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Freddy Peralta ($10.5k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs
One has to wonder if Craig Counsell is having second thoughts about his decision to bolt Milwaukee for Chicago. The Cubs are losers of 5 straight and playing some very average to below-average baseball. They have a 29% k rate over the last week while scoring just 16 runs. On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Brewers owning a 4.5-game lead over the said Cubbies and playing some really solid baseball this season. I’m going to attack the Cubs tonight with Peralta. Peralta continues to pitch well.
On the year, Peralta has a 3.81 ERA and xFIP lower than that at 3.26. He did face this Cubs team a few weeks ago and was hampered by control as he walked 6. We’ve seen him reel back the command as over his last 3 outings he has just 3 combined walks. If that trend of command continues tonight, he has immense upside against a team striking out quite a bit right now. He’s my favorite pay-up pitcher tonight.
Kevin Gausman ($8.5k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
I have nothing but love for the city of Chicago. That said, I will more than likely be picking on both teams from that city tonight. I hope the weather holds out for us tonight because this is a great spot for Kevin Gausman. Over his last 4 starts, Gausman has struck, out 30 batters for an average of nearly 7 per game. He’s also coming off his best start of the year, a start that saw him K 10 Tigers and only allow a single run to score across 6 innings of work. His xFIP in May is a very solid 2.52 and he gets to face a White Sox team that is striking out a ton.
Over the last week, the White Sox have a 30% K rate and have scored just 22 runs. There’s a weather risk here but it does look like this game should be able to be played after a delay to start the game. If it does, Gausman makes a great pairing with Peralta where we’ll still be able to get nearly $3.9k per hitter tonight.
The other pitches I like tonight will be Zack Wheeler vs. San Fran, Dane Dunning vs. Arizona, Matt Waldron vs. Miami (he’s my fallback guy in the event Tor/CHW gets PPD), and Cole Ragans vs. Minny. My one concern with Wheeler is that the Giants do not strike out a ton. They have just a 21% K rate vs. righties this season and just a 21% k rate over the last week. I’m not paying $11k for a pitcher against a team that lowers his ceiling.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Mike Clevinger
I really hope this game plays tonight. Not just because I like Gausman here, but I also really like the Toronto bats. Clevinger has not fared well this season. Through his 4 starts, he owns a 6.75 ERA and an xFIP over 5. Out of the 4 starts, only one has seen him leave after giving up less than 3 ER. In the games he’s started, the White Sox have given up 8 runs in half of them. With a matchup against a Blue Jays team that is finally hitting well, that means we have a struggling pitcher vs. a team on a roll.
Only 4 teams have scored more runs than the Blue Jays over the last week. Clevinger also lines up perfectly for this Blue Jays team. This season, righties have a .778 slugging % vs. him and a .540 wOBA. He should face a Blue Jays lineup where the heart and soul is righty.
Core Bats: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, Davis Schneider, Danny Jansen – listed in order of preference.
Secondary Bats: George Springer, Daulton Varsho
Value Bats: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
New York Yankees vs. Griffin Canning
If ever there was a pitching that was skating on thin ice, it’s Griffin Canning. Canning’s xFIP is more than 2.5 runs higher than his ERA. When I see that large of a delta, I anticipate that there will be some regression coming. In Canning’s case, there are plenty of indicators that lead me to believe that it’s coming, and it’s coming tonight vs. the Yankees. He’s a low strikeout pitcher that is giving up loads of hard contact and has an extremely low BABIP of just .205. He’s also giving up a fly-ball rate of nearly 46%. He’s also given up 8 barrels over his last 27 innings of work.
There are warning flags everywhere for Canning. A lot of the regression I see coming is going to be against righties. He has a higher BB/9 than K/9 against righties this season at home and righties at home also have just a .185 BABIP. I’m loading up on Yankees righties today with the hope the regression happens today.
Core Bats: Judge, Soto, and Stanton
Secondary Bats: Volpe, Verdugo
Value Bats: Wells, LeMahieu
I also like the Phillies vs. Spencer Howard, Guardians vs. Ryan Feltner (keep in mind, he’s actually been better at home this season than away from Coors), and Mariners lefties vs. Hunter Brown.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
