Jared Levitt 
Happy Tuesday! We have ourselves a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. This slate is mostly void of our normal top-end pitching. The most expensive pitcher on this slate is just $9.5k. That said, we do still have some solid pitching in solid spots tonight. With no real aces on this slate, it also will mean that we’ll have some very average to below average pitching as well. That will mean we’ll have plenty of spots for offense.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Clarke Schmidt ($8.4k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners
Clarke Schmidt is having a breakout season. After getting mixed results last season in his first full season as a starter, we’re seeing an evolution of the 16th pick of the 2017 draft. Through 9 starts, Schmidt has an impressive 2.49 ERA and an xFIP of 3.52. Both numbers are career-best numbers for the Yankees right-hander. Also, a career-best number is his K/9 that’s sitting 9.77. He has a nearly 4:1 K:BB number this season which would also be a career-best number.
Over the last month, Schmidt has a 27% K rate which is the third-best number of anyone on the hill tonight. While the strikeouts for the Mariners have started to come down a bit, they were still K’d 6 times by a low strikeout pitcher in Marcus Stroman. Schmidt should be able to replicate that and more tonight.
Alec Marsh ($7.5k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers
Alec Marsh has put together a string of really solid outings. Over his last 4 starts, he’s allowed just 2 ER. In 3 of those 4 starts, Marsh has struck out at least 6 hitters. His K/9 on the year is up to 7.54. For a pitcher that is just $7.5k tonight, I’ll take that number every single day. He’ll be facing off against a Tigers team that has very mediocre numbers vs. righties this season.
The Tigers have a 24% K rate vs. righties and also a sub .700 OPS. Their ISO is also .150 which is a number that I use as a landmark to determine whether a team has power vs. a pitcher or not. They have limited power based on the numbers. This is a good matchup for a pitcher that is pitching lights out right now.
Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Garrett Crochet vs. Toronto and Yusei Kikuchi vs. Chicago.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Baltimore Orioles vs. Lancy Lynn
Lance Lynn’s best days are far behind as we’re seeing a pitcher who is a shell of his former self. Up until last season, Lynn was a pitcher who historically had an ERA that would hover in low to mid 3.00 range and someone who had a BB/9 less than. All of that changed last season as Father Time caught up to the big fellow. This season has been no different for Lynn as he’s struggled. After having an OK April, he appears to have hit a wall in May as he’s allowed at least 4 ER in each of his 3 starts this month.
He’s struggling mightily with his command as his first strike % is just 54% and he’s also allowing a 4.74 BB/9. He’s going to struggle tonight against a really strong offense in the Orioles. If they can be patient, they’ll do a number on Lynn and the Cardinals bullpen. The only thing that may stop the O’s is some potential rain later in the Lou. Keep an eye out for this one. If it gets PPD, I’ll pivot to the Dodgers.
Core Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander
Secondary Bats: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser
Value Bats: Jorge Matteo, Austin Hayes
Houston Astros vs. Griffin Canning
Oh Griffin Canning I feel bad for you tonight. You’ve put together a nice string of starts over the past month, haven’t you? That changes tonight. Canning has just one start this season this season where he had an xFIP under 4. Ironically, that was his worst start of the season. He’s been skating by thanks to a BABIP of just .225. He’s been getting shelled game in and game out, but the balls just haven’t been landing. He’s given up 7 barrels over the last month.
At some point, his luck is going to run out. With how well the Astros have been hitting, that should happen tonight. The Astros have been a top 5 offense over the last week and they line up extremely well with Canning. Canning is mostly a FB and SL pitcher. Those are both pitches that this team excels against.
Core Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
Secondary Bats: Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena
Value Bats: Jake Meyers, Joey Loperfido, Jon Singelton
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Rockies vs. Aaron Brooks, Angels vs. Christian Javier
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