Jared Levitt 
Happy Hump Day! We’re halfway through the week. Tonight, I’ll be focused on the 7-game slate of MLB DFS that starts at 7 PM EST. This is a slate that truly lacks an ace. The pitcher with the highest K rate gets a nasty matchup against one of the hottest offenses in the game in the Yankees. This slate does however give us plenty of options for offense.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Tanner Houck ($9.1k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
I said pitching was bad and I meant it. Nothing against Tanner Houck as he’s pitched fairly well this season, but he’s not an ace and when he’s one of the top pitchers on the slate, it says something about the slate. Overall, Houck has been really good this season. Over the last month, Houck owns a 2.34 ERA and a 2.81 xFIP. He also owns a 23% K rate which is respectable.
He’ll be facing a Rays team that for the most part, has been disappointing this season. Against righties, they have just a .675 OPS and a .128 ISO. They are beatable, and they should be beaten by Tanner Houck tonight. I expect Houck to be one of the more popular pitchers tonight.
Charlie Morton ($8.4k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have been struggling offensively over the last week and until they right the ship, they’re a team that we should be attacking with pitchers. Over the last week, they’ve scored just 21 runs and have a 28% K rate. Against righties this season, they’ve also struggled as they have a .678 OPS and a .144 ISO. We’ll attack them with the veteran righty, Charlie Morton.
The crafty 40-year-old continues to get hitters out. His ERA on the year sits at just 3.14 and his xFIP isn’t much higher. The one knock on him is that his K/9 is down about 2 this season compared to the last couple of years. At $8.4k though we don’t’ really need a pitcher with a 30% K rate. As long as he can continue to get his 5-7 K’s tonight, he’ll more than pay off his salary.
Other pitchers who will be in my pool today will be Taj Bradley vs. Boston, Jon Gray vs. Cleveland, and Pablo Lopez vs. the Yankees.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Texas Rangers vs. Carlos Carrasco
The last few years have been a struggle for Carlos Carrasco. He’s had an ERA over 5 in 3 of the last 4 seasons, with 2 of those seasons being over 6.00. At 37, we can’t expect him to all of a sudden turn it around as Father Time just isn’t on his side anymore. Things have gotten even worse for him over the last few games as he’s given up at least 5 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts.
He’s been especially susceptible to the long ball over the last month as he’s given up 7 of them. Against a strong Rangers lineup, he’s almost certain to give up even more homers tonight. I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here as Carrasco has really struggled against both sides of the plate this season.
Core Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe
Secondary Bats: Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim
Value Bats: Ezequial Duran, Leody Taveras
Oakland Athletics vs. Framber Valdez
I think this is a sneaky spot for the A’s tonight. I’ve never been a huge fan of Framber Valdez and he’s showing little this season to change my mind. While the ERA is very respectable this season at 3.64, the advance metrics for him are not. Over the last month, Valdez has been getting hit extremely hard. His hard-hit rate over the last month is nearly 44%. No one on this slate is remotely close to that.
Hitters have an average exit velocity of 94 MPH against him. That’s also an extremely high number. While the contact rate against him is only 75%, when hitters make contact against him they are crushing him. Against a surprisingly competent lineup in the A’s, that could spell trouble for him. I’m going to favor the righties here as they hit for more power against Valdez.
Core Bats: Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof
Secondary Bats: Esteury Ruiz
Value Bats: Abraham Toro, Shea Langeliers, Max Schuemann
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Astros vs. Aaron Brooks, Braves vs. Javiar Assad, and Angels vs. Lance Lynn.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
