Jared Levitt 
Happy Saturday everyone! Today we have ourselves an 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4 pm EST. This is a slate that will be a bit different than last night in that we have a few more options on the mound. At first glance, this looks to be a pretty fun slate with options for both bats and arms. This should mean ownership should be more spread out than last night as we had chalk Bailey Ober. Thankfully, he didn’t let us down.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Paul Skenes ($8.5k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves
This is a much less intimidating lineup for the Atlanta Braves than it was last season. Guys like Austin Riley and Matt Olson aren’t having the seasons they had in 2023 and because of that, the Braves aren’t nearly as dominant as they were. At nearly the All-Star Break, they sit 8 games out of first and even though the Phillies will miss some of their major pieces for the next couple of weeks, I don’t see them catching up anytime soon.
That said, I’d play Skenes regardless of the matchup. Through 8 starts in the big leagues, Skenes has proven the most important thing for DFS. He can strike anyone out. He’s had just one start under 7 K’s this season and that was against a Giants lineup that is stingy. He’s in a stretch right now that has seen him strike out at least 7 hitters in 5 straight and against a Braves team that has struck out 28% of the time over the last week, he’ll continue to rack up the K’s. Enjoy the price being under $9k today, I don’t think it ever happens again.
Aaron Nola ($8.7k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins
What Nola lacks in the strikeout department, he makes up for with his length. It’s been a month and a half since we saw Nola get at least 8 K’s in a game, but over that stretch he’s gone into the 7th inning in all but 1 outing. We should see another dominating performance out of Nola today as he takes on the lowly Miami Marlins. This is a terrible lineup and a lineup that has scored only 17 runs over the last week while striking out 30% of the time.
Any pitcher that throws against them has ceiling upside and the ceiling upside that we can get from Nola today is an outing in the 30 DK point. Anything can happen in baseball as it’s one of the most highly variant sport, but I like the odds of Nola being one of the top performing pitchers today. We’re getting 2 pitchers for under $9k today that can get us 50 points if they just pitch like they normally do.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be Max Fried vs. Pittsburgh, Cole Ragans vs. Cleveland, and Jake Irvin vs. Tampa. This slate is a breath of fresh air compared to last night’s.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Hogan Harris
I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today. When the Dbacks play against a lefty they are almost a lock for me to stack. Although they only managed to plate 3 runs against Sears last night, they put the ball in play and they put the ball in play with some hard-hit balls. They just got unlucky as they had a .250 BABIP. They are one of the best teams in baseball against lefties and they get an even better matchup today than last night.
Hogan Harris has a very respectable ERA over the last month of 2.28. He’s due for some major regression as his SIERA and xFIP are nearly 2.5 runs higher. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at nearly 37% and a ton of fly balls at 44%. That’s led to him giving up 6 homers over his last 27 innings of work. More damage will be inflicted upon him today. I’m going to mostly focused on the righties here as they have a 41% fly ball rate vs. him and a 54% hard-hit rate vs. him. 5 of the 6 homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties.
Core Bats: Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker,
Secondary Bats: Corbin Carroll
Value Bats: Randal Grichuk, Blaze Alexander, Eugenio Saurez
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Roddery Munoz
I wish the Phillies were healthier coming into this one as both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber will be out the next couple of weeks. This is a phenomenal matchup for the Phillies today as Roddery Munoz has been, to quote Charles Barkley, “Turrible.” He’s given up at least 4 ER in 4 of his last 5 outings and should continue to give up a ton today. The home run ball has really crushed him. In his last 20 innings of work, he’s allowed 8 bombs. Giving up one just about every other inning is not ideal.
He’s just giving up way too many fly balls and way too many hard hits. He’ll be pitching in one of the easiest parks to hit a homer in today so we should see some long balls from the Phillies today. With all the injuries the Phillies have right now, we’ll also get some value in this lineup. I’ll be laser focused on the lefties here as they have a mind-boggling .429 ISO vs. him this season. Oh, Harper and Schwarber, you couldn’t wait a couple of days to get hurt?
Core Bats: Brandon Marsh(value also), Bryson Stot, Trea Turner
Secondary Bats: Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm
Value Bats: Kody Clemens, David Dahl
Other stacks I like today will be Houston vs. Tylor Megill, Mets vs. Framber Valdez, and Nationals vs. Aaron Civale.
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