Jared Levitt 
TGIF! It’s Friday and that means we’ll have a large slate tonight. Tonight, we’ll have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS. It’s a tricky slate as pitching does not look great. The 2 best pitchers on this slate are going to be Dylan Cease and Chris Sale. At first glance, I have little to no interest in either one of them as Cease has regressed to his troubles from 2023 and Chris Sale has to take on the behemoth also known as the New York Yankees. We also have a slew of terrible pitchers on this slate which means we’ll certainly have some options for bats.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
George Kirby ($9.4k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins
My major concern here with going with George Kirby tonight is that he just isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher. He’s only had double-digit strikeouts once this season and has been over 7 just 3 times. That said, he’s in a great spot tonight vs. a Miami Marlins that has struggled for the majority of the year to resemble a major league lineup, and their numbers vs. righties this season are terrible.
They have put up just a .657 OPS and a wOBA of .289. What Kirby lacks in strikeouts, he should make up for in length as I can certainly see him going to 7 strong innings tonight with little to no damage against him. He’s coming off a game that saw him strike out 6 Rangers and giving up just 1 run. If he can replicate that tonight, I’ll be extremely pleased and it’s attainable.
Colin Rea ($7k on DK) vs. San Diego Padres
I’m not a huge fan of using a pitcher like Colin Rea, but on a slate like this with limited options, I feel like we need to. For his part, Colin Rea hasn’t pitched that poorly recently. Over the last month, Rea owns a very solid ERA of 1.93 and has done a decent job of limiting hard contact as hitters have a hard-hit rate of less than 30% vs. him. The major red flag on him though is that he just doesn’t strike out many hitters.
Over his last 7 starts, he’s had 5 K’s or more in 4 of them topping out at 6 in his last matchup vs. Cincy. Knowing all that though, he has been serviceable as he’s been over 20 DK points in 2 straight starts and has been under 10 in just 2 of his last 7 starts. The Padres continue to be a disappointment as they are still under .500 for the year. I can see Rea continuing to pitch well here tonight.
I didn’t mention them in my top 2 pitchers but I want to touch on both Sale and Cease. Sale has one of the toughest matchups on the board against the Yankees. He’ll certainly get his strikeouts, but I also think he allows too many runs tonight to pay off his salary. With Cease, we have a pitcher that has all the K upside in the world. However, he’s pitching terribly right now. Over his last 7 starts, he’s allowed at least 3 ER in all but one. With a matchup against a very solid Brewers lineup, especially against righties, I just can’t justify using a $10k pitcher who has been over 20 DK twice in his last 7 starts. Another one of the best pitchers on the board tonight, Grayson Rodiguez, gets a tough matchup vs. the Astros. They are one of the lowest strike-out teams in all of baseball. Again, we’d have a pitcher with limited upside that we’d be paying a premium for.
Other pitchers I do like are Chris Paddack vs. Oakland (he just got slaughtered by them though), Landon Knack (low ceiling, high floor) vs. Los Angeles, and Carlos Rodon vs. Atlanta. It’s tough sledding out here tonight.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Carlos Carrasco
Since April 24, Carlos Carrasco has had more starts allowing at least 5 ER than he does allowing less than 5 ER. At 37, we have to wonder how much more Carrasco has left in the tank. He’s had just one season over the last 3 with an ERA under 4 and this year he continues to struggle even though he’s back on the team that he broke into the big leagues with. This is going to be the second straight start that Carrasco makes vs. the Blue Jays.
He started against them a week ago and allowed 5 ER in his 5 innings of work. While the Blue Jays will still be without Bo Bichette, they are still a very solid lineup and one that should be able to dominate Carrasco once again tonight. I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits as Carrasco has been susceptible to both righties and lefties this season.
Core Bats (In preferential order): Vlad Guerrero, Davis Schneider, Daulton Varsho
Secondary Bats: Danny Jansen
Value Bats: Addison Barger, Spencer Horwitz, IKF, Justin Turner, George Springer
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kutter Crawford
It is going to be hot today in Cincinnati! The majority of this game tonight should be played with temperatures well into the 90’s. At first pitch, it’s going to be closer to 100 than it is to 90. And when it gets that warm in Cincy, the ball flies and with a flyball pitcher in Kutter Crawford going tonight that just means we have the potential for a home run derby type of game.
Over the last month, Crawford has a fly ball rate of nearly 46%, and that has led to him giving up 7 homers over his last 28 innings of work. I fully expect the long ball to do him in this evening. I’m going to prioritize the lefties here as they have a .281 ISO vs. him over the last month.
Core Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley
Secondary Bats: Spencer Steer, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson
Value Bats: Jacob Hurtubise, Will Benson, Nick Martini
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Twins vs. Joey Eses, Nationals vs. Dakota Hudson, Rockies vs. DJ Herz, and Red Sox vs. Andrew Abbott
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