Jared Levitt 
Hump Day! While there are 2 big slates today, I’ll be focused on the 8-game main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7:05 pm tonight. This is a slate that brings us some solid pitching. We have a couple of the best young lefty hurlers in the game and we also have some solid pitching in great spots. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we also have some real gas cans throwing today and that will give us different spots for stacking.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Hunter Brown ($7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
I’m not sure what Hunter Brown needs to do to get his price raised, but until it goes up I’m going to continue to throw him out here. Especially when he gets a matchup vs. one of the worst lineups in the game. Brown is coming off one of the best starts of his season, a 7-inning game that saw him strike out 9 Tigers and not allow a run to score. That is now 4 consecutive starts where he’s had at least 7 K’s. As I already said, he gets the luxury of facing a terrible lineup tonight.
The White Sox have been abysmal this season and that shouldn’t change tonight. They have a nearly 24% K rate vs. righties this season and limited power with a .128 ISO and .622 OPS. Look for Brown to dominate this lineup tonight and continue his trend of high strikeout games and make it another start with over 20 DK points.
Joe Ryan ($9.5k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay continues to be a team that strikes out at a high pace. Over the last week, the Tampa Bay Rays have struck out 28% of the time and have only scored 25 runs. They are a team that I have been habitually using righties against and with a pitcher like Joe Ryan on the mound, I’m not going to stop tonight. Ryan has been strung together a pretty nice set of starts. Over his last 5 starts, he’s managed to go 7 strong innings and has only allowed more than 2 ER just once.
While he’s not in the upper echelon of strikeout pitchers, his length and matchup have me thinking that we will see a ceiling type of game tonight vs. the Rays. He’s been over 23 DK points in 5 of his last 7 starts and I think he does it again tonight.
Other pitchers that I really like today will be Garrett Crochett vs. Houston, Cole Ragans vs. Oakland, and Sean Manea vs. Texas. I love Crochett but I do think he has a lower ceiling than normal tonight as Houston doesn’t strike out much.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner
I normally don’t like recommending the Dodgers as they are normally an expensive team and popular. With them playing in Coors, they’re even more expensive and even more popular. That said, they are chalk that we may need to just eat tonight as they continue to be in a great spot for a smash-type night. Ryan Feltner just isn’t very good.
Over the last month Feltner has a 5.74 ERA and giving up just a ton of hard contact at more than 42%. He’s also someone that is giving up a ton of homers as he’s given up 6 over his last 26 innings of work. With Feltner, we really want to focus on getting lefties into our stack. Lefties have a .404 ISO and a .478 wOBA vs. him over the last 30 days. Just crazy stuff.
Core Bats (In preferential order): Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman
Secondary Bats: Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages
Value Bats (pinch hit risk): Jason Heyward, Gavin Lux, Cavan Biggio
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson
Although his ERA is just 2.32 over the last month, Tyler Anderson’s SIERA and xFIP indicate he’s not pitching nearly as well as that. His SIERA and xFIP are both 3 runs higher over the last month than his ERA. He has some major regression coming his way and I think it comes at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. If we look at some of his advanced metrics, we can see why there will be some regression.
Over the last month, Anderson has a WHIP of 1.42 which is higher than the average pitcher on this slate. He also has a LOB % of 91%. He’s been getting extremely lucky to keep leaving that many runners on base. Against a solid Brewers lineup, his luck is about to run out.
Core Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Willy Adames
Secondary Bats: Rhys Hoskins
Value Bats: Joey Ortiz, Gary Sanchez, Jackson Chourio
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Andrew Heaney, Twins vs. Taj Bradley, and Royals vs. Luis Medina.
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