Jared Levitt 
Happy Saturday Y’all! Today we’ll have a fairly large slate for a Saturday with a 9-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm est. This slate brings us a pitcher in Seth Lugo who is one of the top feel-good stories this season. It also brings us a bunch of average arms with no true ace. What it does bring us though is a bunch of bats in good positions to perform.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Seth Lugo ($9.6k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs
Seth Lugo is turning into a stud right before our eyes. As a Mets fan, it’s bittersweet. He was a great bullpen arm for us and all he wanted to do was start. Now that he’s been getting that chance, he’s been taking full advantage of it. While I wish the K rate was a little bit higher, this is a slate without a true K guy so I’m willing to overlook his 26% K rate over the last month because there really isn’t much above him with who we have to work with tonight.
He draws a favorable matchup tonight vs. a Cubs team that sits in last place in the NL Central at 7 games under .500. With how Milwaukee and the Mets are playing, one has to wonder if Counsell is second-guessing himself for bolting the Brewers and shunning the Mets. Look for Lugo to be one of the top scoring pitchers on this slate.
Bryan Woo ($8.3k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
I guess I’m going to be picking on both teams from the Windy City tonight as I’ll look to use Bryan Woo as my second pitcher on DK tonight. Woo has been up and down this season as he’s been battling health issues and inconsistent pitching. We’ve seen him throw gems against teams like the A’s and Yankees, but we’ve also seen him throw duds against teams like the Angels. In his last outing, he had one of his better starts of the season against the Astros.
With Woo getting one of the best matchups on the board tonight against the White Sox, I’m looking for him to have another strong outing tonight. The White Sox offense is terrible, having scored the fewest runs in all of baseball and by quite large number. Woo and his groundball tendencies and ability to limit hard contact should have a nice night tonight.
The other pitchers I like tonight are going to be Brandon Pfaadt vs. Pittsburgh, Blake Snell vs. Colorado, and Erick Fedde vs. Seattle.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Marco Gonzales
In his 5 starts this season, Marco Gonzales hasn’t pitched that poorly. His ERA is sitting at 2.70. His xERA however is double that at 5.45 which is in line with his career numbers. Gonzales’s ERA this season is an outlier and I’m expecting him to regress to his career numbers and I’m expecting that to happen tonight against one of the top teams in the leagues vs. lefties.
The Diamondbacks have been crushing lefties most of this season, as evidenced by his .757 OPS and .329 wOBA. I’m going to be mostly focused on the righties in this stack as because Gonzales has historically given up more power to righties than he has lefties. His strike-out rate also plummets when he faces righties.
The 2 guys that I’m most interested in here are Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez. Both guys are the hottest hitters in this lineup and both historically crush lefties. Marte has .454 wOBA and a 1.093 OPS vs. lefties this season. 13 of 22 bombs have also come against lefties. If we look at his recent production, he’s in peak form and I’m willing to pay his $5.5k salary tonight.
Next up is Suarez who is significantly cheaper and makes of a strong value play tonight. He has 11 hits in his last 35 AB and has also homered 3 times over that stretch. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling tonight in this plus matchup. Other bats I like here are going to be Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel, Gabriel Moren, and Randal Grichuk.
Boston Red Sox vs. Marcus Stroman
I’m expecting this Red Sox/Yankees game to be another slugfest. These 2 teams faced off last night and combined for 16 runs. With the pitching matchup we have tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat. I’m going to side with the Red Sox in this one as they get a nice matchup vs. a pitcher in Marcus Stroman who has not been overly strong. Over the last month, his xFIP is sitting at 4.76 and an ERA of 5.21. He’s been giving up a ton of hard contact at 38% and has been letting a decent number of hitters on with a 1.53 WHIP.
His only saving grace is that he hasn’t been giving up too many flyballs with a 37% flyball rate. That said, when hitters do get the ball in the air they’ve been leaving the park. His HR/FB is sitting at 22.7% over the last month, the highest of anyone pitching tonight.
I’m going to prioritize the lefties in this matchup as they have a .900 OPS vs. him this season. That means Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers will be the biggest targets here. Since we have a salary, if I can only afford one of them this evening I’m going to side ever so slightly with Jarren Duran. He’s a smidge cheaper and has been a little more productive recently. He has 18 hits in his last 40 AB and has also scored 12 runs.
That said, Devers isn’t far behind him with 12 hits in his last 33 AB and a 1.15 OPS. The value play here I like is going to Masataka Yoshida. He’s also hitting the ball well right now and comes in at just $3.7k. Other bats I like her will be Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O’Neill, Dom Smith, and David Hamilton.
Other Bats
I think that the Marlins can be sneaky tonight vs. Aaron Civale. Civale has been getting clobbered and the Marlins have been putting up some runs recently. My targets here would be Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Jesus Sanchez. Angels vs. Mitch Spense are also in play. Nolan Schanuel, Luis Rengifo, and Logan O’Hoppe would be may targets. I’ve been on the A’s quite a bit recently but they take on Tyler Anderson and he’s actually been putting up some decent starts so I will more than likely fade them tonight.
I mentioned the Yanks/Sox game could be a slugfest against tonight so the Yankees vs. Kutter Crawford are in play. Judge/Soto would be the play but again, we don’t have unlimited cash to play with. They aren’t a priority but are in play. Tyler Fitzgerald has been the second coming of Willie Mays recently and would be a bat to play if you want to stack the Giants vs. Ryan Feltner. A full Giants stack vs. Ryan Feltner is in play.
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