Jared Levitt 
Hump Day! That’s right, it’s Wednesday and that will mean a split slate for us. I’ll be focused on the Main Slate of MLB DFS tonight, an 8-game slate starting at 7 pm EST. This is a slate that at first glance, is going to be another wide-open one. We have some high-end pitching that is going to be very affordable, meaning we’ll be able to spend up on most bats that we want tonight. If you’re looking for help on the early slate, I’ll be posting notes in Discord so make sure to drop by and say hello!
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Jack Flaherty ($9k on DK) vs. Cleveland Guardians
All of a sudden, the Cleveland Guardians offense has gone extremely silent. Over the last 2 weeks, they’ve scored just 24 runs. Of the teams playing tonight, only the White Sox and Padres have scored fewer runs. Their only saving grace is that they haven’t been striking out too much as they have just a 23% K rate over the last week. That said, their K rate over the last month is up a few hundred basis points than their season total so they have begun to be a bit more free-swinging.
Back to Flaherty, he’s been great this season. As I’m sure you’ve read in my articles before, the reason he’s pitching so well is that he’s finally getting the ball over the zone. His BB/9 are significantly lower than they’ve ever been and that’s translated to him being able to go longer into games. He’s coming off an 8 K game against the Blue Jays and while I don’t think he has that level of upside here, I do see him getting 6-7 while not allowing much damage. He’s my SP1 tonight.
Nathan Eovaldi ($8.8k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
Over the last 2 nights, we’ve seen guys like Michael Lorenzen and Jon Gray throw “masterpieces” against this White Sox team. Both of them have been below average all season. This speaks to how bad the White Sox have been not only recently, but this season as a whole. At 27-76, they are the only team in baseball yet to crack 30 wins. At a -193, they have by far the worst run differential in all of baseball as well.
I will continue to pick on them with pitchers and we get a decent one tonight. While he’s coming off a less-than-stellar start vs. the Orioles, before that had reached at least 20 DK in 6 of his previous 8 starts. With this type of matchup today, look for Eovaldi to put his past start behind him and crack 20 DK points once again.
The other pitchers I have interest in tonight will be Tanner Bibee vs. Detroit, Gerrit Cole vs. the Mets, and Yariel Rodriguez vs. the Rays. Tyler Glasnow is also very much in play tonight as he returns from the IL. I do think however that he will be on a pitch count, severely limiting his upside tonight, especially as the most expensive pitcher on the slate. I will be fading him.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Texas Rangers vs. Chris Flexen
I wish the Rangers were coming into this one swinging a little, but I’ll cut them some slack because they have been facing decent pitching. Tonight’s a different story as they face one of the best slump-busters in the business in Chris Flexen. Flexen is a terrible pitcher. He had a few good seasons coming back from Korea, but the last 2 seasons have seen him regressed back to the same he was before he was forced to find employment overseas.
This season he has an ERA of 5.22 and an xFIP nearly identical to that at 5.10. He’s walking more batters than he has since back in 2018 and has a WHIP 1.40. He’s a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of flyballs. Flexen has also given up 17 homers already so he’s someone that we can absolutely chase power against.
While he’s mostly been a reverse splits pitcher in his career, lefties have done him in this season. They have a .275 ISO and a .369 vs. him. 11 of the 17 homers against this season have been to hitters from the left side. That means I’m going to prioritize putting guys like Corey Seager, Josh Smith, and Nate Lowe in my stack. Corey Seager leads the Rangers in homers against righties this season and has a .893 OPS vs. them. He’ll be the priority for me here.
While I’ll focus on the lefties here, I also really want a piece of both Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien. If I can only afford one of them, I’ll look to Semien as he’s been hot at the plate, with 12 hits in his last 33 AB. He also has homered 10 times vs. righties this season. This whole team is in play tonight as they’ll also get to face one of the worst bullpens in the game.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Edward Cabrera
Another team that has somewhat been quite offensively but can go off at any moment is the Baltimore Orioles. They’ll get to face off against a very inconsistent pitcher in Edward Cabrera. Cabrera has all the talent in the world. But he also has lapses where he just looks like an average-at-best AAA pitcher. I’m going to be chasing those mistakes with one of the more powerful lineups in the game in the Orioles.
I’m going to chase his weakness and that weakness is one of the Orioles strengths, lefties. Lefties have just been embarrassing Cabrera of late. Over he last 30 days, lefties have an insane .643 ISO and a .597 wOBA Vs him. While that’s exaggerated, lefties also have a .333 ISO vs. him this season and a .447 wOBA. They also strike out significantly less vs. him.
That will mean I’ll make sure that I have Gunnar Henderson in my lineup tonight. He’s due big time and I think he breaks out of his slump big time tonight and gets home run number 29. His numbers vs. righties this season are very strong, at .415 wOBA and a .982 OPS. 22 of his 28 bombs have also come against righties.
The next guy I’m going to look to for the Orioles is their hottest hitter, Anthony Santander. A case could be made that he would be my priority here as he is as locked in as ever, with 4 homers over the last 2 weeks and 9 RBI. He’s been carrying this offense and he’ll carry us to the promised land tonight. Other guys I have an interest in here are Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser, and Cedric Mullins. Mullins is a strong value at $3.5k.
Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Robby Ray (making his first start since March 2023), Royals vs. Ryne Nelson, and Nationals vs. Matt Waldron.
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