Jared Levitt 
Happy Saturday Y’all! In what is rare for a Saturday, we have ourselves a main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7. Tonight, we’ll have 9 games on DK and 8 games on FD starting. This is an interesting-looking slate at first glance, with a couple of really strong pitchers and some great spots for hitting. It’s far from a wide-open slate though.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Dylan Cease ($9.7k on DK) vs. Cleveland Guardians
This spot is going to be a huge dilemma for me tonight. There are few pitchers in the game today who possess the upside that Dylan Cease offers. He has the third-highest K/9 in baseball at 11.66. Only Garrett Crochet and Tyler Glasnow have higher K/9 than Cease. While he has a handful of games this season scoring more than 30 DK points, he also has a handful of games this season scoring less than 10. He’s the epitome of a GPP pitcher.
He has one of the highest ceilings in the game, but he also has a very low floor. The good thing for us here is that the Guardians offense has mostly stalled of late, scoring just 35 runs over the last 2 weeks. Only a few teams have scored less than them. Yes, they put up a 7 spot but they were dominated by Matt Waldron last night. I’m going to risk it with Cease tonight because again, he possesses so much K upside compared to the field.
Brady Singer ($8.1k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
I’m going to go a bit cheaper with my SP2 tonight. Brady Singer gets arguably the best matchup on paper tonight. The White Sox are turrible. They have the worst record in baseball at 27-72 and it’s not even close. They are also 1 of just 3 teams that have a run differential of at least -100. They are pushing a run differential of -200 at this point. While Singer isn’t known to be a huge strike out guy, he does have the ability to get around 6-7 K’s in a neutral matchup.
This isn’t a neutral matchup as the White Sox offense is epicly bad. They’ve struck out 28% of the time over the last couple of weeks and have scored just 26 runs. What Singer lacks in the K department, he should make up for in length tonight. I’m locking him in as my SP2.
The other pitchers I have an interest in today will be Grayson Rodriguez vs. Texas, Pablo Lopez vs. Milwaukee, Sonny Gray vs. Atlanta, and Framber Valdez vs. Seattle.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Kansas City Royals vs. Jonathan Cannon
I mentioned above that the Chicago White Sox have the worst run differential in the game at -183. Only the Rockies have given up more runs than the White Sox and they somewhat get a pass as they play half their games in Coors. Outside of Garrett Crochet, this pitching staff is atrocious and it’s followed by a bullpen that is even worse. This is a bullpen that has the third-worst ERA in baseball this season.
Back to Cannon as he’s been terrible. Over the last month, Cannon has an ERA of 6.27 and xFIP and SIERA that aren’t much better as they are hovering north of 5. He’s allowed 4 homers and 7 barrels over his last 20 innings of work. He’s someone that we can rely on to let hitters put the ball in play as he also has an 84% contact rate over that same 20-inning stretch. He’s a low-strikeout pitcher that gives up a ton of contact. That’s where magic tends to happen.
The Royals broke out for 7 runs last night thanks to a monster game from Bobby Witt Jr. He’s going to be the core to this Royals stack tonight as he’s one of the best hitters in the league. He has 13 hits in his last 32 AB and has combined for 14 runs and rbi. He’s heating up and in this matchup should smash. 14 of his 17 homers this season have come against righties and he has a .953 OPS against them in 2024. He’s going to cost an arm and a leg tonight, but he’s worth it.
After Witt, I’m going to focus on getting some lefties into this stack as Cannon has allowed a .407 wOBA to them and an OPS of .956. That means guys like Vinnie Pasquantino, and Michael Massey will be in play. If you want to get some value, Kyle Isbel is also in play as he’s just $2.8k tonight.
Boston Red Sox vs. Justin Wrobleski
I think the Red Sox could be a sneaky bunch tonight. If we look at Wrobleski’s starts this season, they have not been good. He currently owns a 6.30 ERA in his young career. He’s allowed 4 homers in just his 10 innings of work and he’s also allowed 6 barrels thanks a high flyball rate and a very high hard-hit rate.
Also, across the 2 starts the Dodgers have allowed a combined 20 runs. Those 2 starts weren’t really against lineups that I’d call scary either as they were against the Brewers and Tigers. While the Red Sox typically do strike out quite a bit vs. lefties, they can hit for some power as they have an average OPS over .700.
I’m going to focus on a few bats here. First, I’ll look to Tyler O’Neill. He’s crushed lefties, with a .437 wOBA and an OPS of 1.053. Yes, he also K’s a bunch vs. lefties but with Wrobleski being a low K guy I’m not going to be overly concerned with the strikeouts here. Since I’m spending up on the Royals, after O’Neill I’m going to look to some value and this lineup will have that for us today.
Rob Refsnyder, Connor Wong, Jamie Westbrook, and Ceddanne Rafaela are all under $4k and will be able to help us round out the lineup here without costing us much. While I’m focused on the righties here, guys like Rafael Dever and Jarren Duran also going to be very much in play here as Wrobleski has been terrible vs. lefties.
Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Brayan Bello, Giants vs. Kyle Freeland, and Orioles vs. Max Scherzer. The Diamondbacks can also be a sneaky spot for offense tonight vs. Kyle Hendricks, especially the lefties like Joc Pederson, Alek Thomas, and Geraldo Perdomo.
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