Jared Levitt 
Were you and a loved one forced to spend time together over the last few days thanks to the MLB All-Star break? Well, have no fear because that time is over. Baseball is back and I’m more excited than ever to jump back into some MLB DFS. Tonight we have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS to work with this. At first glance, this is a fun-looking slate that can take us in many different directions.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Jack Flaherty ($9.5k on DK) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Thanks to a bad back, Jack Flaherty somewhat hobbled into the break. He did however post a 6-inning gem, allowing a 1 ER to a very potent Guardians lineup. He’s been one of the top pitchers in baseball this season, with a 3.13 ERA and a K/9 of 11.27. What has helped Flaherty this season has been the ability to get the ball over the plate. His BB/9 of just 1.52 is a career-low and well below his career average of 3.19. If he can continue to not walk hitters, he’ll be in the Cy Young convo just like he was back in 2019.
This is a solid matchup for him tonight vs. a Blue Jays team that has disappointed and will more than likely be a seller at the deadline in a couple of weeks. The one knock on this matchup tonight is that the Blue Jays aren’t a huge strikeout team, evidenced by their season-long k rate of just 19% vs. righties. That said, over the last month they have struck out 24% of the time vs. righties so they’ve become more of a free-swinging team. Look for Flaherty to have a strong night coming out of the break.
Hunter Brown ($8,4k on DK) vs. Seattle
I’ve been targeting the Mariners with righties all season long and that trend will continue tonight. I’ve been targeting them vs. righties because they have a massive 29% K rate vs. them this season. If we look at the projected lineup for tonight’s game, that number balloons up to nearly 40% over the last month. This lineup has 7 guys with a K rate over 30% vs. righties over the last 30 days. Just crazy stuff.
That shouldn’t take away from Brown; I’d recommend him vs. most teams. He’s someone who has been underpriced all season long and remains underpriced tonight at his $8.4k salary on DK. Over his last 7 starts, he has 6 over 18 DK points and 5 over 23. This is a ceiling-type game for him this evening.
The other pitchers I have an interest in today will be Gerrit Cole vs. Tampa, Michael Wacha vs. Chicago, and Sean Manea vs. Miami.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Colorado Rockies vs. Kyle Harrison
I for one am not a huge fan of Coors slates. Even though they can be fun, you’ll always need to make the decision “do I play Coors or do I fade Coors”. I’m playing Coors tonight and I’m going to side with the Rockies side of things. For starters, of all the pitchers going tonight, no one has a higher xFIP or SIERA over the last 30 days than Kyle Harrison.
Granted, it’s only been 2 starts but if we look at the metrics of those 2 starts they haven’t been good. While he gave up just 1 ER to the Twins he got battered in the start, allowing a nearly 65% hard-hit rate. The start before was worse as he allowed 4 ER to the Guardians in just 3 innings of work.
If we look at the Rockies lineup, they’ve been much better vs. lefties than righties. Brendon Doyle has led the way and has been one of the better hitters vs. lefties this season. On the year, Doyle has a .829 OPS vs. them and has been even better vs. late, with a .481 wOBA and a .379 ISO. He’s going to be a core bat for me in this stack tonight, even at his $5k price.
Another bat I like here will be Michael Toglia and his 9 homers vs. lefties this season. His price of $4.3k is very reasonable, especially considering the environment and his production vs. southpaws this season. I’ll round out this stack with guys like Ezequiel Tovar, Brendan Rogers, Jacob Stallings, and Elias Diaz.
Oakland Athletics vs. Griffin Canning
If you know me, you know I love attacking Griffin Canning. He’s someone who just gives up a whole ton of contact and more often than not, that contact is considered hard contact. Over his last 6 starts, Canning has given up at least 4 ER in 4 of them. His season-long ERA is sitting at a high 4.84 and his xFIP and SIERA are both hovering around that number as well.
He’s terrible and I plan on attacking him tonight with a lineup that has put up some monster numbers over the last couple of weeks. I need to preface this with that they are a high risk as they can go very quiet, very quickly. That said, they are mostly cheap tonight and again, facing a gas can in Griffin Canning.
I’ll start off this stack with the man, the myth, the legend, Lawrence Butler. Butler wrapped up the first half with a 3 homer, 6 RBI game vs. the Phillies. Over his last 41 AB, he’s had 8 barrels and a 60% hard-hit rate. Against righties this season he’s up to 9 homers and 25 RBI. His price tag of just $3k on DK tonight will allow for a ton of flexibility.
I’m also going to be on Shea Langeliers tonight. He’s tied for the team lead in homers against righties this season with 14 and has also driven in 40 runs vs. them. He’s also a nice value at just $3.9k. The main hitter in this lineup though is Brent Rooker. He’s been dynamite over the last couple of weeks, with 20 hits in his last 41 AB and 6 homers. I’ll make sure to plug him into this stack. Other bats to include here will be Max Schuermann, Seth Brown, and Zack Gelof.
Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. Edward Cabrera, Giants vs. Cal Quantrill, Angels vs. JP Sears, and Dodgers vs. Nick Pivetta.
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