Jared Levitt 
TGIF! We’re almost at the All-Star break as we head into the last series of the first half. Tonight, we’ll have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS. One thing we’ll need to do tonight is monitor the weather. There are a handful of games that will be impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. There are at least 2 games that will be played in Baltimore and New York that have a very real PPD risk. This slate will bring us two of the top young arms in the league in very favorable matchups.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Garrett Crochet ($10.3k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Garrett Crochet gets a dynamite matchup tonight vs. a Pirates team that has struggled vs. lefties. Against lefties this season, the Pirates have struck out nearly 25% while hitting for almost no power at a .688 OPS. Their projected lineup tonight has 6 guys with a K rate over 27% vs. lefties this season. Half of the lineup tonight also has a wOBA under .300 vs. lefties this season.
This has a ceiling-type game written all over it for Crochet. We’ve seen him get upwards of 13 K’s on the year and he’s reached double-digit strikeouts 6 times on the year. With this matchup against a rough Pirates lineup, he has double-digit strikeout upside. He’s my SP1 tonight and I’m not looking back.
Cole Ragans ($8.5k on DK) vs. Boston Red Sox
While the Red Sox have been a team that we’ve often used to stack against righties, the opposite can be said when talking lefties. No team is striking out at a higher rate against lefties than the Red Sox. At a 29.2% K rate, the Red Sox are more than 300 basis points clear of the next worst team. Even though they can show some pop vs. lefties, I’m going to be chasing the K’s and we’ll be chasing the K’s from one of the best in the game this season in Cole Ragans.
Over the last month, Ragans has been strong with a 3.82 ERA and a nearly 29% K rate. Since early May, he has just one start allowing more than 3 ER and that was against a strong Guardians team. He continues to pile up K’s, with 25 over his last 3 starts. There’s some power risk here, but he has a ton of upside in a matchup against a team that K’s a ton vs. lefties.
Other pitchers I like today will be Sean Manea (weather permitting) vs. Colorado, Sonny Gray vs. Chicago, Joe Ryan vs. San Francisco, Freddy Peralta vs. a struggling Nats lineup, and Hunter Brown vs. Texas.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Mets vs. Tanner Gordon
I really hope the weather gods work out for us tonight because the Mets are rolling and they get a great matchup vs. a young Rockies pitcher that did not look good in his Major League debut. In his debut, Gordon allowed 5 runs in just over 6 innings of work. I’ll cut him a bit of slack as pitching in Coors is never easy. That said, his metrics for the start just weren’t any good.
He allowed a nearly 84% contact and a nearly 37% hard-hit rate. That’s a lot of hard-hit balls being put into play. In his 6 innings of work, he also allowed 2 bombs. If we look at his numbers at AAA with both the Rockies and Braves, they have not been good either. He had an ERA of 5.35 in 7 starts in Alberquerque and then also had an ERA of 5.53 in 26 starts in the minors in 2023.
Core Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez
Secondary Bats: Pete Alonso, JD Martinez
Value Bats: Jeff McNeill, Harrison Bader
Braves lefties vs. Randy Vasquez
If you’re a lefty bat from the Braves, you are 100% in play tonight. Randy Vasquez overall isn’t a terrible pitcher. Over the last month, he owns an ERA that isn’t terrible at 4.12. His xFIP is slightly higher over the last month and is approaching 5. His SIERA over the last month is a smidge higher at 5.16. Where we want to attack Vasquez is specifically with lefties.
Over the last 30 days, lefties have a .204 ISO and a .470 wOBA vs. him. They also have just a 4.1% K rate vs. him. On the year, lefties have a massive slash line of .431/477/.667 vs. him. For those at home without a working calculator, that’s an OPS of 1.144. Just terrible, very terrible stuff but music to ours
Core Bats: Matt Olson, Jarred Kelenic, Ozzie Albies
Secondary Bats: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Adam Duval
Value Bats: Eddie Rosario
If for some miracle the O’s/Yanks game plays tonight, I’ll be all over the Yankees. Cade Povich is coming off a miserable start vs. the A’s and all of his advanced metrics say it wasn’t an anomaly. Both sides of the plate would be in play. I just don’t think this game pays today.
Other stacks I like today will be the Reds vs. Yonny Chirinos, Marlins lefties vs. Carson Spiers, Cardinals vs. Kyle Hendricks, Mariners vs. Tyler Anderson, Diamondbacks vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Toronto vs. Ryne Nelson, Twins vs. Kyle Harrison.
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