Jared Levitt 
Happy Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate! It’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a large slate of games. Tonight we have ourselves a 10-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this slate lacks a true ace. While we have some solid pitchers on the slate, there isn’t a single arm that stands out as a must-play. This will mean that ownership will be spread out. As you saw in the first line, Patrick Corbin will be on the hill and he’ll be on the hill against my New York Mets. You know what that will mean!
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Nick PIvetta ($9.6k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics
I will never feel comfortable using Nick Pivetta as my SP1. This slate is really lacking with aces though so I’m going to chase the upside here. Pivetta is coming off arguably his best start of the season. In his last outing, he went 7 strong innings against the Marlins, giving up 0 ER while striking out a season-high 10 batters. Those 10 strikeouts were the second time he’s gotten into the double-digit K territory this season.
He gets an equally tasty matchup today vs. an Oakland team that is 25 games under .500 for the season. Yes, they’ve put up some runs over the last week but it was against 2 starters who weren’t good in Brayan Bellow and Cade Povich. While Pivetta has had his fair share of struggles this season, he is someone who can have a high ceiling and this is a high-ceiling type of game in my opinion. He’s risky, but he also has immense upside in a matchup against a team that is striking out 27% of the time this season vs. righties.
Michael Wacha vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While the Cardinals have played better baseball this season, they are still a team that struggles against righties. On the year, they have a nearly 24% K rate vs. righties and just a .148 ISO. The projected lineup for the Cardinals tonight has 4 guys with a K rate vs. righties this season of at least 27%. There is upside for Wacha tonight in this matchup. Wacha for his part has pitched well this season, and especially well over the last month or so.
Since mid-May, Wacha hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any start and that’s a stretch of 7 starts. Over that stretch, he’s faced some tough competition in the Padres, Rangers, Guardians, and Tampa Bay twice. He’s not a sexy pick as he rarely gets more than 7 K’s, but he’s someone who will provide a high floor as he’s been under 16 DK points just once in the last 2 months.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be Framber Valdez vs. Miami, Luis Severino vs. Washington, Tobias Myers vs. Pittsburgh, Chris Bassitt vs. San Fran, and Logan Webb vs. Toronto. As you can see by this list, we have no pitcher that screams upside.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin
3 more months. I bet the Nationals front office is looking at the calendar and realizing they will have Patrick Corbin on the roster for just 3 more months. Since signing with the Nats back in 2019, he’s had just one season with an ERA under 4 and just 2 seasons with an ERA under 5. Over the last 4 seasons, he’s had ERA’s of 5.82, 6.31, 5.2 and this season at 5.49. His time in DC has been a complete disaster.
Each year since 2018, his K/9 has continued to decrease and his BB/9 has continued to increase. His only saving grace this season is that his HR/FB is at the lowest point since 2018. That should change tonight vs. a Mets that has crushed lefties this season, with a .185 ISO and a .780 OPS. With Corbin, we want the righties. 13 of the 14 homers he’s given up this season have been to righties and 218 of the 252 homers he’s given up in his career have been to righties.
Core Bats: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Francisco Lindor, Harrison Bader , Franciso Alvarez
Secondary Bats: Brandon Nimmo
Value Bats: Jose Iglesias, Tyrone Taylor
Boston Red Sox vs. JP Sears
The Red Sox came through for us last night, putting up a 12 spot. While the matchup isn’t as solid as last night, it’s still a strong spot for them. Over the last month, JP Sears has been terrible. He owns an ERA of 7.48 and an xFIP over 6 over his last 21 innings of work.
To make matters even better for us tonight, the A’s used their bullpen for nearly 8 innings last night as Joey Estes couldn’t make it out of the second inning. This should mean that Sears will have a bit of a longer leash tonight. Normally the concern for the Red Sox against lefties is their strike outs. Sears is a low K person as his K rate is just 16% this season. I won’t be as worried about K’s here.
Core Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rafael Devers
Secondary Bats: Jarren Duran
Value Bats: Rob Refsnyder, Connor Wong, Dom Smith
I didn’t mention them in my top 2, but the Reds vs. Kyle Freeland are very much in play. If you look at Freeland’s ERA over the last month it’s strong at just 1.37. His xFIP tells us a completely different story as it’s nearly 3 runs higher. The same can be said for his SIERA. He’s due for regression and it should come tonight. Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer will be my priority with that stack.
Other stacks I like today will be the Braves vs. Slade Cecconi, Brewers vs. Martin Perez, Rangers vs. Griffin Canning, and Angels vs. Michael Lorenzen
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