Jared Levitt 
It’s Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and that means we’ll have a large slate of games to work with. Tonight, we have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate brings us last night’s expected ace Chris Sale as his start was pushed back a day. There will be some weather concerns tonight as 3 games have some rain in the forecast. One involves one of the top pitchers on the slate in Bailey Ober. Yes, you read that right. This slate will also bring us some excellent spots for bats.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Chris Sale ($10.4k on DK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
I normally fade lefties against the Dbacks as they are one of the better teams in the league vs. southpaws. That said, Chris Sale is one of the few starters in the league that is essentially matchup-proof. Well, as long as he isn’t starting against the A’s that is. A healthy Chris Sale is good for baseball and Sale is finally healthy this season. On the year, he’s posted an impressive 33% K rate.
His splits against lefties and righties have been pretty consistent this season. Over the last 30 days, Sale’s K rate has increased to nearly 38%. Since April 19, Sale has just 4 starts where he’s allowed 2 or more ER. That’s across 12 starts. Over that stretch, Sale has the same number of starts having double-digit K’s as he does allowing 2 ER or more. Just crazy stuff from him this season. He’s my SP1 tonight.
Bailey Ober ($8.7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
Bailey Ober is in the middle of one of the finest stretches of his young career. Over the last month, Ober has been spectacular. He owns a 2.53 ERA (xFIP of 2.73) and a strikeout rate that is over 32%. He has 4 straight starts with at least 8 K’s. Some will say that it has been matchup driven and it probably has. He’s faced the Tigers, Mariners, and the A’s twice over those 4 games.
He gets arguably an even better matchup tonight as he takes on the 26-67 Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have a league-worst run differential at -166. Against righties this season, the White Sox have struck out nearly 24% of the time and have an ISO of just .129. Now anything can happen and he can certainly regress a bit, but this matchup is Ober’s for the taking and he should smash tonight. I’m hoping the weather holds out for us as that’s the only thing that can slow him down at this point.
If the Twins/Sox game gets called, I’m going to pivot to Yusei Kikuchi. He’s due for some positive regression as his xFIP is nearly 3 runs lower than his ERA. While he’s given up some bombs, he’s been rather unlucky as his LOB % is just 75% and his BABIP is a massive .362. The Giants have not been good recently as they have a 33% K rate over the last week and have scored just 22 runs.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be Logan Gilbert vs. San Diego, Ronel Blanco vs. Miami, Jake Irvin vs. the Mets, and Zac Gallen vs. Atlanta. We’ll have plenty of options on the mound tonight.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Boston Red Sox lefties vs. Joe Estes
If we take a look at the splits for Joey Estes, he could not line up any better for us than he does as he struggles mightily vs. lefties. On the year, Estes has just a 15% K rate vs. lefties and a 9% walk rate. He’s allowing a flyball rate of more than 34% and a hard-hit rate that is approaching 53%. This has allowed lefties to have a .264 ISO and a .369 wOBA against him. Across 65 innings at the Major League level, Estes has allowed 11 homers, 7 of which have come against lefties. They have a slugging % over .900 vs. him in his career.
The Red Sox lineup tonight should have upwards of 6 lefties in it. This has a nightmare all over it for Estes tonight. With the Red Sox, the good thing for us is that the core lefties in this group aren’t a pitch-hit risk so we should be able to count on them for the entire game. It’s going to be hot in the North East today and we’ve got a wind that’s blowing out so the ball will travel, and the ball will travel far!
Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, David Hamilton
Secondary Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu
Value Bats: Dom Smith, Masataka Yoshida
Mariners lefties vs. Adam Mazur
Adam Mazur is another pitcher who is absolutely atrocious vs. lefties. The Padres rookie continues to struggle vs. lefties this season as they have an OPS of 1.108 vs him this season and a wOBA of .467. Both of those numbers are just terrible. I’ve been avoiding stacking the Mariners this season because of their propensity to strike out against righties. Mazur is just a different breed though when it comes to striking out hitters.
His K/9 this year is sitting at just 5.13 and his BB/9 is higher at 5.81. With him not missing any bats, I’m not going to be as worried tonight about strikeouts. Mazur has also struggled mightily at home, with an ERA of 10.66 in San Diego compared to “just” 4.61 on the road. The Mariners have a few lefties that have some pop and those are the bats I’m going to be targeting here.
Core Bats: Luke Raley, Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford
Secondary Bats: Mitch Garver, Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
Value Bats: Dominic Canzone, Josh Rojas
Other stacks I like today will the Blue Jays vs. Blake Snell, Rangers vs. Roansy Contreras and Pirates vs. Colin Rea,
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
