Jared Levitt 
Happy Saturday y’all! We made it to the weekend! I’ll be focused on the 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4pm est. This is a slate that has one of the up-and-coming stud pitchers in a phenomenal matchup today. After that, there’s a steep decline in pitching so we’ll want to navigate pretty carefully. This slate does bring us some really solid spots for hitting though.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Garrett Crochet ($10.4k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins
Garrett Crochet has taken MLB by storm this year. He continues to mow down hitters at a really solid pace. Over the last month, he’s been brilliant as he has a near 40% K rate. We’ve seen him dominate teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, Brewers, and Orioles. He is becoming matchup-proof with how dominant he’s been.
While I focused on his K’s, he’s also been doing a really solid job of keeping the ball on the ground when hitters do make contact. His GB rate over the last month is over 43%. Crochet gets a great matchup today vs. a really bad team in the Marlins. At 30-58 the Marlins are one of the worst teams in the league, leading only this same White Sox team. I’m not going to overthink this one. Crochet is my SP1 today by a country mile.
Taj Bradley ($8.5k on DK) vs. Texas Rangers
Taj Bradley is quietly having a really strong season for the Rays. The young right-hander is sporting a 3.42 ERA on the season and has an xFIP even lower than that. His K/9 on the year is an impressive 11.71. The one area of concern for Bradley is his propensity to walk batters. His BB/9 on the year is a concerning 3.25 and over the last month it’s a smidge higher at 3.41.
I’m willing to overlook that here as he brings us some real K upside at a relatively low price. We’ve seen him mow down 11 hitters in 2 of his last 4 games. With the Rangers, we should expect to see a smaller amount of K’s as they don’t K too often. That said, Bradley is cheap enough that we really only need 6-7 K’s out of him to exceed value. I think he can get there for us.
Andrew Heaney is another pitcher that should do well today. The Rays have struggled vs lefties this season and Heaney is underpriced for this matchup.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be McKenzie Gore vs. St. Louis, Hunter Green vs. Detroit, and if you want to risk it and play the trend go with Yariel Rodriguez vs. Seattle.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Baltimore Orioles vs. Luis Medina
Across 24 innings over the last month, Luis Medina has struggled. He’s pitched to an ERA of 5.92 over that stretch and his xFIP of 5.84 indicates we’re getting what he is. A bad pitcher. It hasn’t been all bad as he gave up just 1 ER to both the Dbacks and Royals. Both of those lineups though have periods where they can get really cold.
That said, over the last month he has more starts giving up 4 ER than he has given up less than 4 ER. He should continue to struggle today as he takes on one of the top offenses in the league in the Orioles. Against righties this season, the Orioles have a .773 OPS and a .208 ISO. On most nights, they are a pitcher’s worst nightmare.
Core Bats: Gunner Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander
Secondary Bats: Ryan O’hearn, Jordan Westburg
Value Bats: Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins
New York Mets vs. Bailey Falter
I’m looking for the Mets to snap their mini 3-game losing streak today. They were embarrassed by the buckos last night and I can see them returning the favor today. Bailey Falter has had an up and down season. We’ve seen him throw some really competent games at times, and then we’ve also seen him struggle at times as evidenced by his 5 ER 2k performance against the Reds a couple of weeks ago.
Falter is someone who really struggles with control at times. His BB/9 over the last month is approaching 4 and his WHIP is one of the worst marks on the day at 1.67. If the New York Mets can be patient here, they can sit on their pitches and get a whole bunch of runners on. They’ve been one of the better teams in baseball this season against lefties and they face a very beatable lefty today. Look for them to put up a ton of runs today.
Core Bats: Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor
Secondary Bats: Brandon Nimmo
Value Bats: Jose Iglesias, Tyrone Taylor
They aren’t in my top 2, but i also really like the Reds vs. Matt Manning. He struggled earlier in the year and he’ll struggle today as well. Other stacks I like today will be the Giants vs. Logan Allen, Mariners vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Blue Jays vs. Emmerson Hancock, and Rays vs. Andrew Heaney
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