Jared Levitt 
TGIF! I hope you all had a great Independence Day and were able to celebrate with friends and family. Although today may feel like the weekend, it’s Friday and that means we have a massive slate. Tonight, we have a 12-game slate of MLB DFS to play with. This slate has the potential to be low-scoring as we have just one team that has an implied run total over 5. That’s the Royals and they’ll be playing in Coors. We have a decent amount of pitching options on this slate.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Tyler Glasnow ($10.8k on DK) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tyler Glasnow is not only the best real-life pitcher on this slate, he’s also far and away the best fantasy pitcher as well. On the year, Glasnow has averaged nearly 24 DK points a game. After posting back-to-back 35 DK point outings, he had an absolutely miserable last start vs. the Giants. Things happen and we saw that happen to Chris Sale a few weeks ago where he had a string of dominant outings and then imploded. His last start was an anomaly and he’ll get back on the saddle tonight.
His numbers over the last month are pretty crazy. He has a K rate over 35% and is also inducing an extreme number of groundballs at nearly 52%. I’m not going to overthink this one tonight. The Brewers will face their post-Coors hangover and get dominated by Tyler Glasnow. He’s my SP1 tonight.
Kevin Gausman ($8.3k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners
No team in baseball provides a pitcher with the strikeout upside as the Mariners do. So far in 2024, the Mariners have struck out 912 times. That’s 60 more times than the nearest team. Against righties this season, they have a whopping 29% k rate. If we look at the projected lineup for the Mariners, they have 4 guys who have K rates over 30% against righties.
While Kevin Gausman may not be what he used to be, he still possesses some strikeout ability as he’s reached double-digit strikeouts multiple times this season. He’s always at risk of blowing up, so he will be best reserved for GPP’s, but this is the type of matchup tonight that he should excel in. I’ve been attacking the Mariners with strikeout pitchers all season and I have no plans on stopping any time soon!
Other pitchers I like today are will be Drew Thorpe vs. the Marlins, Tanner Bibbee vs. the Giants, Pablo Lopez vs. the Astros, and Cole Ragans vs. the Rockies. I also like Reese Olson quite a bit vs. the Reds. We have plenty of options to work with today.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Freeland
While the ERA for Kyle Freeland has been really solid over the last month, his SIERA and xFIP indicate a completely different story. One of the things that I look for when looking to see if a pitcher is going to show some regression is the difference between their ERA and xFIP. Freeland’s ERA over the last month is really good at 1.42. His xFIP however is a full 3 runs higher at 4.71.
He’s due for some major regression and it’s going to happen tonight at the hands of the Royals. One of the major reasons for the difference here is that Freeland gives up a boatload of fly balls, while simultaneously giving up a boatload of contact. He’s also been extremely lucky with a BABIP of just .189. You can only get so lucky for so long before things start to unravel. They’ll unravel tonight.
Core Bats: Sal Perez, Bobby Witt Jr, Vinnie Pasquantino, Hunter Renfroe
Secondary Bats: Maikel Garcia
Value Bats: Nick Loftin, Freddy Fermin
Oakland Athletics vs. Albert Suarez
Since I’m paying all the way up for the Royals tonight, I need a cheap stack and the A’s will give me that. Living in Baltimore and having a family that roots for the O’s, I watch just about every O’s game. I don’t think Suarez is good, at all. If the O’s weren’t ransacked by injuries to their pitching staff, Suarez would be pitching in Norfolk and not Balitmore.
Like Freeland, he’s due for some major regression. His ERA over the last month is sitting at just 3.6. If we look at his xFIP though, it’s nearly 2 runs higher at 5.52. He’s someone that gives up way too much contact at nearly 83% and has one of the highest line drive %s at nearly 28%. The A’s are a terrible franchise, but one that should put up some runs tonight at a relatively low cost.
Core/Value Bats: Brent Rooker (if you can afford him), Zack Geloff, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Orioles vs. Hogan Harris, Blue Jays vs. Luis Castillo, Diamondbacks lefties vs. Randy Vasquez, Padres vs. Slade Cecconi, and Rays vs. Michael Lorenzon
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
