Jared Levitt 
TGIF! It’s Friday and that will mean a yuge slate. Tonight we have a 12-game slate of MLB DFS. We’ll want to monitor the weather on a few games. The game between the Yanks and Rangers has already been PPD and then the game between Rockies and Atlanta has some weather so we’ll want to make sure to keep an eye on the status. This slate features some solid, but uninspiring pitchers. It also features a few pitchers who have had a case of the struggles of late that I will be more than happy to attack.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Jack Flaherty ($10.5k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
My biggest concern with paying a premium for a guy like Jack Flaherty is that we pretty much have a set ceiling. He has only made it into the 7th inning a handful of times this season and each time he was pulled mid-inning for a reliever. More often than not, he’s gone 6 strong innings and nothing longer. With it being the home stretch of the season, I don’t see the Dodgers really pushing him when they don’t quite need to.
With all that said, he’s been the model of consistency all season. He continues to go 6 strong innings with 6-8 K’s with limited damage. There’s little about this Pirates lineup that should scare Flaherty tonight. They’ve struck out 32% of the time over the last week and have scored just 25 runs. I’m more than willing to pay the premium on Flaherty this evening.
Robbie Ray ($8.6k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers
I need to preface this pick by saying I only play GPP’s. If you’re playing cash games, I wouldn’t go this route. While Ray is one of the more inconsistent pitchers, he’s also someone that will always have a high ceiling due to his ability to rack up strikeouts. After missing just about all of 2023, Ray has now pitched in 3 games thus far.
He hasn’t made it past 5 in any of them, but in 2 out of the 3 outings, he’s already had at least 8 K’s. With his cost tonight, I’m going to overlook his lack of length because again, he can rack up K’s with the best of them. I’m going to lock in Robbie ‘I like to wear really tight pants’ Ray tonight as my SP2.
Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Jameson Taillon vs. the White Sox and Jose Berrios vs. Oakland. Wheeler is also in play, but against a red-hot Dbacks team, I’m out.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Kansas City Royals vs. Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas has been one of my favorite pitchers to attack. Nothing against him, but I just enjoy stacking against pitchers who not only give up a ton of contact but also pitchers who give up a lot of homers. Over his last 21 innings of work, Mikolas has given up a nearly 84% contact rate and just a 22% chase rate. He isn’t fooling anyone with the garbage that he’s throwing.
To make matters even better for us, he’s given up 5 bombs in those 21 innings. I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits in this matchup. Both sides of the plate have pretty equal numbers vs. him. Lefties have an OPS of .790 vs. him while righties have an OPS of .787.
The 3 core plays here will be Bobby Witt, Sal Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino. Few hitters in the game today have the upside that Bobby Witt has, especially when they’re playing on their home diamond. Witt has insane splits this season when comparing his home-to-road performance. At home, he’s hitting .409, while on the road it sits at “just” .288. The same could be said for most of this lineup, bringing into question whether or not some nefarious stuff is happening.
That’s a convo for another day though. While Witt is the star and face of this franchise, we can’t discredit what Pasquantino is doing. With finally getting regular playing time, he’s already set a career-high in homers and is well on his way to having his first 100 RBI season. Other guys I like here are Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, and Hunter Renfroe.
Chicago Cubs vs. Garrett Crochet and the White Sox Bullpen
We’re essentially at the point of the season where Crochet is mostly worthless. At 118 innings pitched, he’s more than doubled his career total. Coming into this season, Crochet had thrown a combined 70 innings in relief at the major league level and he’s already at 118 on the season. He hasn’t gone longer than 4 innings in more than a month and with the team more than 60 games under .500, there’s no need to push him at all.
That will mean we’ll get more than half this game against the White Sox bullpen. Over the last 2 weeks, the White Sox bullpen has an ERA that’s pushing 7 and for the full 2024 season, it’s over 5. This is more a strategic play and it’s not for the faint of heart.
I’ll build this stack around 4 guys that are putting the ball in play the most. That’s going to be Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Pete Crow–Armstrong, and Michael Busch. There’s a strong chance that Busch doesn’t play with a lefty on the mound, so we’ll want to monitor his status. At most, these guys should only face Crochet once and then it will be a field day vs. White Sox bullpen.
Other stacks I like tonight will be both sides of the Coors game, with the Braves being a priority, Cardinals vs. Michael Lorenzen, Giants vs. whoever the Tigers throw out, and Red Sox lefties vs. Ronel Blanco. I also really like the Blue Jays vs. Spence, especially a smoking hot Vlad Jr.
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