Jared Levitt 
Hump Day! That’s right, it’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a couple of different slates to play with. I’ll be focused on the 7-game main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm EST. This slate is top-heavy with lefty aces. We have Sale, Ragans, and Skubal on the hill tonight in what looks to be pretty tough matchups. At the bottom of the barrel, we’ll also have some really great spots for offense.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
This is a tough slate for pitching. Even though we have some studs on the mount in Sale and Skubal, they are in incredibly tough matchups. The matchup with the Brewers for Sale is a tough one. Over the last 30 days, the Brewers have struck out just 20% of the time vs. lefties. They also have a wOBA of .355. This really lowers the ceiling for the most expensive pitcher on the slate. I am more than likely out on him.
Next up is Skubal. Earlier in the year, pitchers vs. the Mariners were a guarantee. Not anymore, and especially not with some of the additions they made. This is a much deeper lineup than it was a few weeks ago, even with Julio out. Again, this is a matchup that lowers the ceiling of Skubal and he’s priced just behind Sale. I’m not saying that these 2 aren’t in play, just that the matchup on paper isn’t great and they will have lower ceilings than normal.
Cole Ragans ($9k on DK) vs. Boston Red Sox
This too isn’t the easiest of matchups as the Red Sox can put up a bunch of runs in a heartbeat. That said, they are an extremely high strike-out team vs. lefties and they’re facing a lefty that can strike some people out, as evidenced by his 25% K rate over the last month. This Red Sox lineup has 4 guys in it that have K rates well over 30% vs. lefties over the last month.
If we dial that back to 25%, that would be 7 of the 9 guys. Everyone in this lineup has power against lefties, but they have to be able to hit the ball in order to hit for power. With this matchup and Ragan’s K ability, an 8 K game giving up 2-3 runs is very much in play and at a $9k salary would still hit value nicely.
Freddy Peralta ($8.5k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves are really struggling right now. They were completely dominated by Colin Rea last night as he went on to throw 7 shutout innings and strike out 9 Braves. The game before that, they were shut out by the Marlins as Edward Cabrera went 5 innings and struck out 8. They are lost at the plate and we can attack them tonight with Freddy Peralta.
The big concern for Freddy P is that he just throws a ton of pitches and that causes him to rarely go past 6 innings. That said, his price is the lowest I’ve seen this season and with this matchup, he should easily outperform the $8.5k salary. He faced the Braves a week ago and struck out 7 in 6 innings. A repeat performance is not out of the question.
Other pitchers that I’ll be interested in will be Taj Bradley vs. St. Louis, George Kirby vs. Detroit, and Erick Fedde vs. Tampa.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Kansas City Royals vs. Kutter Crawford
Kutter Crawford is in the midst of a brutal stretch of pitching. Over his last 3 games, he’s allowed 16 ER and a mind-boggling 12 homers. This isn’t the first stretch this season where he’s been like this. There was also a stretch back in May/June that saw him give up 15 ER over 3 games as well so this is not necessarily an anomaly or bad luck. He’s someone that will have lapses in quality pitching and that’s what we’re seeing right now.
It’s not going to get much easier for him today as he’s facing off against a strong lineup in the Royals. The Royals have been pretty solid against righties this season as they have a .167 ISO vs. them and a .730 OPS. I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here as both righties and lefties have had almost identical numbers vs. him this season. That said, lefties have a .591 ISO and a .528 wOBA vs. him over the last month. Both are laughable numbers.
That means our good old friend Vinnie Pasquantino will be my priority here. He continues to lead this offense, not letting Bobby Witt overshadow him. Over the last week, Vinnie has 12 hits and has also driven in 13 runs. He’s been in double-digit DK points in 6 of his last 7 games and that should continue this evening.
I’ll also look to both MJ Melendez and Michael Massey here. As is always the case, Witt is 100% in play if you have the cash lying around for him. Other bats I like here are Hunter Renfroe and Freddy Fermin. Both guys are hot at the plate right now.
Baltimore Oriole vs. Bowden Francis
The Orioles burned us last night but the great thing about DFS is that we get to start all over again. Chris Bassitt was brilliant last night, there’s no other way to put it. He had command of all his pitchers and left the Orioles off balance all game long. Kudos to him. Today should be different. The Blue Jays will turn the ball over to Bowden Francis this evening. He’s appeared in 18 games so far this season and has started in 4 games.
This season has been a real struggle for him. Compared to his first full season in the bigs, his K’s are way down, his walks are way up, and his HR/9 are nearly double. In just 44 innings of work, he’s already given up 10 bombs and has an ERA that’s pushing 6.
I said it yesterday and I’ll keep saying, Jackson Holliday looks like a completely different player than he was during his first call up. He looks way more confident and his swing looks way better. He has hits in all but one game since his call up and has already homered 3 times over the last week. He’s still super cheap at $3.2k, but that will change so we need to take advantage of it now.
After Holliday, I’ll get guys like Santander, Henderson, Mountcastle, and Mullins. Adley has been quiet for what feels like months, but he has started to put together better AB. It’s only a matter of time before he breaks back through with a monster game.
Other stacks I like tonight will be both sides of the Coors game, Dodgers vs. Tyler Phillips, and the Blue Jays vs. Trevor Rogers. If you’re looking for a one-off play, Guerrero’s numbers vs. lefties over the last month are video game like. He has a .857 ISO and a .829 wOBA. I’ll be putting some money on him to homer tonight.
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