Jared Levitt 
Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and that means a large slate. Tonight we have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS. With a loss tonight, the Chicago White Sox would break the AL record losing streak. They’d also inch a game closer to the all-time record of 23, set by the 1961 Phillies. After that, tonight slates brings us some underwhelming, but solid arms in plus matchups. We also have some bats like the Mets and Yankees in great spots to put up some runs.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Sonny Gray ($9.6k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The ERA for Sonny Gray is a little wonky over the last month at 5.19. He had a couple of disappointing starts vs. the Nationals in there where he gave up 5 ER a piece and that has skewed that number a bit. He came back to the old Sonny Gray in his last start vs. the Cubs, a 9-k 7-inning gem that saw him net 26 DK points. With a matchup against the gutted Rays, I can see a similar outing out of him this evening.
The Rays are now without Aroz, Amed Rosario, and Parades. They are a much weaker lineup than they were a month ago, even with newcomers Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson. The projected lineup tonight for the Rays has a 30% K rate vs. righties over the last month and a sub .300 wOBA. This is a smash spot for Gray tonight. I have him as my SP1.
Pablo Lopez ($8k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs
Thanks to the gem thrown by Dave Festa last night, the Cubs managed to strike out a combined 14 times. This is a lineup that at times can be extremely weak and we saw that last night as they were shut out. With the weather conditions being conducive to pitching and Pablo Lopez on the hill, I would not be shocked to see them put up just a run or 2 again tonight. Lopez is coming into this tilt in great form.
Over the last month, Lopez has just a 2.52 ERA and an xFIP of 3.19. He’s hit at least 23 DK points in 3 straight games and 5 of his last 7 games. His only bad outing over that stretch was against a much better lineup in the Astros. The forecast for tonight’s game is “chilly” at 70 degrees, but more importantly, the winds will be blowing in at 20 MPH. If you follow baseball enough, you know there’s no stadium in baseball impacted by the weather more than Wrigley. Look for this to be a low-scoring affair with Lopez and the Twins coming out on top.
Other pitchers I’ll like tonight will be Luis Gil vs. the Angels, Shota Imanaga vs. Minnesota, and Luis Castillo vs. Detroit.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Orioles lefties vs. Chris Bassitt
Don’t’ get me wrong here, I like the entire Orioles squad tonight. That said, I’m going to prioritize the lefties in this matchup. Over the last 30 days, Bassitt has been getting crushed by them. They have a .434 wOBA and a .196 ISO vs. him. Bassitt is also giving up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate vs. them and also a nearly 30% fly ball rate.
This is a spot where we can go home run chasing and if you know the Orioles, you know their power comes from the lefties. Of the 12 homers he’s given up this season, 9 have been to lefties.
That will mean I’ll look to prioritize in this stack Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday. After really struggling in his first cup of coffee, Holliday looks like a completely different hitter. In the 18 AB he’s had since his call-up, he has 7 hits and 2 homers. He’s also driven in 7 runs since his call-up. He’s still just $3.1k on DK, opening up a ton of salary relief so we can afford Gunnar and possibly Santander.
For a while there, Santander was the play but Gunnar has come alive over his last 2 games. His homer on Sunday was his first in nearly 3 weeks and he also has 6 hits in his last 2 games. He’s one of my favorite plays on this entire slate. I’m going also going to make sure Cowser gets into my stack. He’s red hot at the plate, with 21 hits in his last 53 AB. Cowser has also combined for 27 runs and RBI over the last 2 weeks. $4.3k is a very reasonable price tag for his recent production and he’s leading off.
Royals lefties vs. Brayan Bello
The Royals should be able to score a whole bunch of runs tonight against Brayan Bello. Brayan Bello has a very clear weakness and that’s lefty power. Of the 17 bombs he’s given up this season, 11 have been to lefties and they have an .849 OPS vs. him. He’s been especially bad vs. them over the last 30 days as they have a 52% hard-hit rate and greater than 30% line drive rate. This is an exploitable spot.
While I’ll be stacking the Royals here, Bobby Witt isn’t a necessity to this spack. Especially knowing that Gunnar will be manning SS in my stacks. I plan on loading up on Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez here. Melendez has been on fire vs. righties over the last month. Over his last 38 AB vs. righties, he has a .432 ISO and a .399 wOBA. He’s super cheap tonight at $3.2k on DK tonight. We’ll need the payroll flexibility to fit in Vinnie Pasquantino.
Although the focus has been on Witt’s epic run, Vinnie has been the hottest hitter on this team over the last couple of weeks. Over his last 54 AB, he has 19 hits and 5 homers. Over the last 2 weeks, he leads the team in OPS at 1.05 and wRC at 13. Vinnie has also driven in 16 runs over the last 2 weeks. Bobby Witt is certainly in play here, but again, I’m just not going to force him in.
Other Attackable Spots
Yankees vs. Davis Daniel – Outside of Aaron Judge, I’d prioritize the lefties here. Daniel has just a 14% k rate vs. them over the last 30 days and has given up a nearly .340 wOBA. Soto, Wells, Jazz, and Ben Rice.
Mariners vs. Keider Montero – He’s given up 7 homers in his last 28 innings and has allowed a nearly 40% hard-hit rate. Victor Robles, Justin Turner, and Aroz.
A’s vs. Jonathan Cannon – Rooker, Butler, Andujar, and Shea would be by plays
Both sides of the Coors game.
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