Jared Levitt 
Happy Saturday Y’all! We finally made it to the weekend and I don’t know about you, I needed it! Tonight we have a massive 10-game slate of MLB DFS to work with. Like last night, we don’t have a pitcher over $10k. This slate brings us some really good arms in good spots. I’ll continue to attack teams like the Marlins and White Sox any chance I get.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Hunter Greene ($8.7k on DK) vs. San Francisco Giants
Hunter Greene is in the midst of one of the best stretches of his young career. Over his last 8 starts, Greene has given up more than 2 ER just once and the one game he did, it was more than likely due to him being sick as he threw up on the mound. He’s also given up just 2 ER over his last 5 starts. While the K’s are down a smidge this year compared to his first 2 seasons, one of the big reasons he’s done so well this year is that he’s cut down big time on his HR.
Coming into this season, he’s had a HR/9 over 1.55 in each. This season that number is down .72. Of the teams playing tonight, the Giants are in the bottom half in runs scored over the last 2 weeks. 6 of the 9 guys in the projected lineup tonight have a wOBA under .300 over the last month against righties. This is a matchup that Greene should continue his dominance in. He’s my SP1 today.
Bailey Obert ($8.4k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
I’m going to continue to attack the White Sox any chance I get. They’ve now lost 18 in a row and after today that should increase to 19. At 27-85, there’s a real chance that the White Sox will be 60 games under .500 by the end of this series. They are also on pace to shatter the all-time loss record in a season. Over the last 2 weeks, they’ve scored just 21 runs. The next closest team is at 39 runs. It’s as bad of an offense as there is in baseball.
The good news is that we get to attack them with a pitcher who has finally put it all together and is having a breakout season. His K rate over the last month is at 29% and would rank third of all the pitchers on the mound. Trailing just Greene and Crochet. This is a ceiling-type game for him and would not be shocked to see him cross 30 DK points tonight.
I want to touch on the 2 most expensive pitchers tonight. Those are Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers and Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. I have little interest in either pitcher tonight. Crochet gets arguably the toughest matchup on the board tonight against the Twins. He hasn’t gone more than 4 innings in a game since June. I’m out on him. Flaherty is still pitching well but isn’t lighting it up like he once was and there’s always an injury concern with him and his back. I can’t see the Dodgers really pushing him hard to go that long.
The only other pitcher I have an interest in tonight will be Ronel Blanco vs. Tampa.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Minnesota Twins vs. Garrett Crochet
You can call me crazy for this one and I’d get it. I 100% understand if you have little to no interest in the Twins tonight. The only contests I play are GPP and to me, this is a 100% GPP play. If you look at the last few outings of Crochet, they haven’t been particularly spectacular like they were at the start of the season. The White Sox are dialing back his innings and he hasn’t gone more than 4 innings since his last start in June.
His last outing was not good, as he allowed 3 ER to the lowly Mariners in 3 innings pitched. With a much tougher assignment today vs. the Twins, I could see a similar outing and then the ball would get turned over to the worst pen in the league. A pen that has an ERA well over 6 over the last 2 weeks. A pen that gave up 6 ER yesterday.
Any Twins stack should start with Royce Lewis. He had another monster night at the plate, going 2-4 with 4 RBI and 2 runs scored. Against lefties this season he has a .463 wOBA and a 1.147 OPS. Even if he has to face Crochet a couple of times through the order, he can still do damage to a pitcher who isn’t quite as elite as he was earlier in the year.
After Lewis I’ll make sure to get in guys like Byron Buxton, Carlos Santana, and Willi Castro. Again, this isn’t a stack for the faint of hearts and it very well could blow up in my face. To quote the legend, Ricky Bobby, “If you aren’t first, you’re last”.
New York Mets vs. Jose Siriano
The New York Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball since June 1. They are currently winners of 7 of their last 10 and are currently sitting in the last Wild Card spot. They get a strong matchup tonight vs. a pitcher in Jose Siriano who is a low strikeout/high contact pitcher. Hitters have a contact rate over 80% vs. him over the last month.
In 3 of his last 5 games, opponents have gone on to score at least 5 ER against him and the Angels bullpen. His only 2 good starts were against a Mariners team that has been absolutely terrible vs. righties this season. Siriano is essentially a reverse split pitcher. Righties have a .473 wOBA vs. him over the last month and a .363 wOBA against him over the full season.
Core Bats: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Francisco Lindor
Secondary Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Jesse Winker, Jeff McNeil
Before commenting on the Red Sox, I want to know how’s starting for them. Right now I’ve seen it anywhere from TBD, to Dane Dunning, to Cody Bradford. If it’s Dunning, they are one of my top stacks on the day. Same for Bradford. Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Mitch Pence, Braves vs. Kyle Tyler, and Orioles vs. Joey Cantillo.
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