Jared Levitt 
Hump Day! With it being Wednesday, we’ll have a bit of a small slate. Thanks to the debauchery that happened with the Rangers/White Sox games last night, we’ll be down to just a 7-game slate of MLB DFS on FanDuel and an 8 gamer on DK. At first glance, this is an odd pitching slate. We have a couple of high-priced guys and then a whole lot of nothing. It’s going to be a survival of the fittest type of night on the mound.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
As will probably be the case going forward, I’m fading the most expensive arm on the slate. Chris Sale is by far the best real life pitcher on this slate. That said, his price is also by far the highest on the slate. Can he post a monster outing here? Sure, he certainly can. I’m not willing to pay $11k for someone just as likely to throw a game hovering around 20 DK as he is 30 DK points. We need 30 DK points out of him for him to reach value and I just don’t see it tonight.
I’m also going to be out on Freddy Peralta. He’s been very “mid” of late and I’m not paying $10k for someone who isn’t striking out people nor going long into games.
Joe Musgrove ($8.8k on DK/$8.1k on FD) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While I normally reserve Joe Musgrove for his games against the Mets, I’m more than likely going to rock him tonight on both sites. Although the Cardinals aren’t the highest strike-out team, I think Musgrove can strike out enough to both not kill us and also take us up in the leaderboards. My biggest concern tonight with Musgrove is his pitch count.
Since returning from the IL, he hasn’t thrown more than 75 pitches in a game. That said, he did put up 9K’s in his last outing with only having to throw 75. That’s also baked into his price as he’s still under $9k. This is nothing more than an average Cardinals lineup that Musgrove gets to face tonight. I like for him at least 20 DK points tonight.
Luis Severino ($7.3k on DK/$8.5k on FD) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
I’m way more interested in Luis Severino on DK than I am on FD. His price is very enticing, even with the matchup. The New York Mets are playing for their playoff lives at this point and need all the wins they can get. I’m hopeful that Sevy can throw a third straight strong start. Overall, his first year in New York has been a successful one. After a disastrous 2023 campaign with the cross-town rival New York Yankees, Severino has pitched to a 3.84 ERA with a nearly identical xERA.
While the K’s have been mostly down for him this year over years past, his groundballs have been up. Against lefties over the last month, he has a nearly 54% groundball rate. He should face a lineup tonight that has 7 lefties in it. There’s certainly some power risk here, but with his recent propensity to get the ball on the ground, that should limit the damage. This is far from a safe play, but with pitching the way it is tonight I’m willing to roll the dice on him in this matchup. Especially with the Dbacks missing some of their top bats.
The other pitchers I have an interest in tonight will be Andre Pallante vs. San Diego, David Festa vs. Atlanta, and Jack Leiter vs. Chicago (FD only). I want to point out specifically today, I’m not 100% married to these pitchers. Especially Sevy. Make sure to hop into discord throughout the day to as I’ll be posting my final thoughts on pitching later today. It’s very possible on DK that I end up going Musgrove/Leiter. Leiter struggled in his first cup of coffee this season. Since getting sent back down to the Minors, he’s had increased velocity and command.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Colorado Rockies vs. Max Meyer
As chalky as they’ll be, I’m going right back to the Rockies tonight. They get a great matchup vs. a struggling Max Meyer. Over the last month, Meyer has been terrible. He’s allowed an ERA over 7 and has also allowed 8 homers and 13 barrels in the 25 innings he’s thrown over the last month. Since being recalled back to the majors in July, he hasn’t had a start allowing less than 3 ER.
In his 46 innings of work this season, he’s already managed to allow 11 homers. He’s someone that we can rely to give up power. With this stack, I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits. Both sides of the plate have an OPS over .860, with lefties having a slight edge at .910.
I’ll start this stack with the guys hitting at the top of the lineup. That will be Charlie Blackmon, Ezequiel Tovar, and Ryan McMahon. I said in yesterday’s article that Blackmon was due to for a big game and he rewarded us with 21 DK points. In this matchup, he has similar upside.
After the 3 guys at the top, I’ll look to guys like Brendan Rodgers, Michael Toglia, and Jeff Cave. Plugging in a guy like Sam Hilliard so you can get a 9-3 or 9-4 stack is also very much in play. This entire lineup should be in play tonight and they should score a whole bunch of runs.
Boston Red Sox vs. Chris Bassitt
This is looking like a worst-case scenario type of matchup for Chris Bassitt tonight. Over the last month, lefties have really battered him. They own a .250 ISO and a .426 wOBA vs. him over the last 30 days and also have a nearly 53% hard-hit rate and 50% flyball rate. 12 of the 16 bombs he’s given up this season have been to lefties.
With Triston Casas back healthy, he should face a Red Sox lineup tonight that has 6 lefties in it. Most of these lefties also own some power so tonight’s game very well could equate to a home run derby.
Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Triston, Wilyer Abreu, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida (I have this listed in my order of preference)
Secondary Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Connor Wong, David Hamilton
Value Bats: Ceddanne Rafaela
Other bats I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Blue Jays lefties vs. Brayan Bello, Rangers vs. Chris Flexen ,and Marlins vs. Kyle Freeland
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