Jared Levitt 
Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and that means we’ll have a decent slate to play with. Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate brings us mostly underwhelming arms and a whole bunch of average-at best pitching. This should mean there will be plenty of options for us to choose for our stacks. At first glance, this slate should be wide open.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Spencer Schwellenbach ($9k on DK/$9.7k on FD)
I like the price a bit more on DK than I do FD, but Spencer Schwellenbach is in play on both sites tonight. I may be done paying up more than $10k on pitchers for the rest of the way out. At this point of the year, pitchers are getting fatigued and the results are showing. Schwellenbach is right in the price range of what I’m looking to spend these days. And boy has he been performing up to the task. Over the last month, Schwellebach has an insanely high 37% K rate and just a 2.84 ERA. His ERA Is not fluky as his SIERA and xFIP are both more than .5 run lower.
When he hasn’t been striking hitters out, he’s been doing a splendid job of keeping the ball on the ground as hitters have a nearly 50% ground ball rate against him over the last month. With his ability to keep the ball on the ground when it’s in play, he should be able to neutralize the power of the Twins. There are definitely going to be K’s to be had against this Twins lineup as 5 of the hitters in the projected lineup have a K rate over 25% over the last month. As of now, he’s my SP1.
Andrew Heaney ($7k on DK/$8k on FD)
At this price point and in this matchup, Andrew Heaney is almost a free square tonight. The White Sox just continue to lose and they continue to not score runs. Over the last week, they’ve scored just 16 runs. Against lefties over the last month, the projected lineup for the White Sox tonight has just a .042 ISO and a .205 wOBA. The days of the White Sox being a powerhouse against lefties are long gone. This should set up great for Heaney tonight.
While he’s nothing splashy, he has pitched ok over the last month. He’s coming off one of his best starts of the season, a start that saw him go 5 innings against the Pirates and strike out 8. He’s normally capped around 90 pitches, but at $7k we won’t need much for him to hit value tonight. If he can get up to 20 DK points again tonight, I’d consider that victory. With how pitching has been recently, that would be a monster victory.
I’m out on $10k Jack Flaherty tonight. Even though the Orioles offense hasn’t been spectacular of late, they are still a solid lineup and I’m not going to target them with the most expensive pitcher on the slate. He has cracked 25 DK points in just 2 of his last 8 outings. If he does it tonight, I’m ok with fading him because the risk tonight just doesn’t seem worth it. If you want to chase upside, Dylan Cease is your guy. That said, he’s seen a massive downward trend in performance since no-hitting the Nationals. Other pitchers I do like tonight will be Sean Manaea vs. Arizona, Logan Gilbert vs. Tampa, Logan Webb vs. Milwaukee, and Brando Pfaadt vs. the Mets.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Colorado Rockies vs. Roddery Munoz and a terrible Marlins bullpen
Y’all know me by now. You know that I try to avoid going to Coors as much as possible. It’s a chalky environment and I try to be different in a way to get to the top of the leaderboard. It’s going to be tough to fade the Rockies though tonight. Roddery Munoz just isn’t a major league-ready pitcher. With a nearly 6 ERA for the full season, little has gone Munoz’s way this season.
His K/9 is low at 7.75 and his BB/9 is extremely high at nearly 5. When hitters do make contact against him, it’s normally pretty hard as hitters have a nearly 50% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last month. In his last 20 innings of work, he’s allowed 5 homers and 7 barrels. While both sides of the plate will be in play today, lefties are going to be my priority. Lefties have an OPS of 1.069 against him this year thanks to a slugging % that is approaching .700.
I’m going to build around guys like Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, and Michael Toglia tonight. Blackmon is due for a big day at the plate. Over the last week, he’s been BABIP’s significantly. He has just 2 hits while putting the ball into play in 16 of his 18 AB. His BABIP is insanely low at .125. Look for him to get off the shnide here.
Another bat I like here is Jake Cave. He’s in play on both sites tonight, but his price on FD is laughable at just $2.5k. He’s a super-strong value play there. I’ll round out this stack with guys like Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle, Brendan Rodgers and Nolan Jones. This entire lineup is in play as after Munoz, they’ll get a bullpen that has a 5.79 ERA over the last 2 weeks.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cooper Criswell.
The Boston Red Sox are fading, and they’re fading fast. A big reason for their fall of late is due to terrible pitching. Over their last 4 games (I’m not including their suspended game), they’ve given up 30 runs. They’ve given up at least 7 in 3 of the 4 games. With Cooper Criswell on the hill tonight, the faucet of runs allowed shouldn’t stop anytime soon. While Criswell is known to throw a solid game or 2 here and there, he’s also someone that can implode just as quickly.
Just 2 starts ago he got rocked by the Orioles for 6 ER in just 3 innings of work. He’s a low strikeout guy that gives up a ton of contact. Over the last month, hitters have a nearly 89% contact rate vs. him. Criswell also rarely goes long in his outings. He’s made it through 6 innings in just 2 starts this season. That will bring us to a struggling bullpen. The Red Sox bullpen has an ERA of 5.84 over the last 2 weeks. Of the teams on the main slate tonight, only the White Sox bullpen has been worse. Don’t panic if they only score a couple of runs early. This is play as much on the bullpen as it is Criswell.
Core Bats: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Spencer Horwitz
Secondary Bats: Daulton Varsho
Value Bats: Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, Will Wagner
Other bats I like tonight will be the Red Sox vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Marlins vs. Cal Quantrill, Padres vs. Miles Mikolas, and Braves vs. SWR. I also want to keep an eye on the Rangers tonight. The weather does not look good for the game tonight. If we get more clarity before first pitch, I absolutely love the Rangers vs. Crochett and a bad White Sox bullpen.
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