Jared Levitt 
TGIF! It’s Friday and that will mean that we have a big slate to play with. Tonigh, we have an 11-game slate of MLB DFS. This is a slate that doesn’t have a pitcher over $10k. It’s a slate that has a bunch of quality arms, but not a single arm that screams a ‘must play’. I’m going to continue to attack bad teams with above average arms and we’ll be able to do with that today. With so many teams in action today, we should see ownership spread out.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Joe Ryan ($9.7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
I’m not normally a fan of paying this much for a guy like Joe Ryan, a guy who is normally pretty inconsistent. That said, he is pitching really well right now and gets the greatest matchup in the history of baseball. This is an awful White Sox team. Will it work 100% of the time attacking them? No, it won’t always work. More often than not though, it will. The projected White Sox lineup tonight has a nearly 26% k rate vs. righties this season, a .133 ISO, and a .270 wOBA.
Over the last 30 days, those numbers jump to a nearly 27% K rate, a .109 ISO, and a .237 wOBA. This is a smash spot for Joe Ryan tonight. He hasn’t had less than 6 K’s in a start since June and should be able to strike out a ton of White Sox tonight. I’m locking in Joe Ryan as my SP1 tonight. Look for the White Sox to lose their 18th straight game tonight.
Spencer Schwellenbach ($8.8k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins
I’m going to continue to attack bad teams with good pitchers. Spencer Schwellenbach is coming into his own after getting called up to the bigs at the end of May. Over the last 30 days, he’s been phenomenal. He has just a 2.08 ERA over the last 30 days and a K rate of nearly 29%. Schwellanbach is coming off the best start of his career, a 7-inning 11 K gem vs. my New York Mets.
Again, it’s baseball, a highly variant spot where anything can happen. I’m going to take my chances against a team that will throw out a potential lineup that has a 30% K rate vs. righties over the last month and an ISO of just .110. Schwellanbach is going to be my SP2 tonight.
The other pitchers that I’ll have interest in tonight will be Yusei Kikuchi vs. Tampa, Tyler Phillips vs. Seattle, and maybe Gavin Stone vs. Oakland.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Atlanta Braves vs. Valente Bellozo
The Miami Marlins are expected to call up Valenta Bellozo today to make the start vs. the Atlanta Braves. Bellozo has only appeared in 2 games in the Major Leagues and has had mixed results. In his first outing against the Royals, he was superb, only allowing 2 hits in 5 innings of work. In his second out, he was horrendous, allowing 5 ER in 5 innings of work vs. the Red Sox.
I’m going to side with the outing vs. the Red Sox. His numbers this season at AAA have not been good as he has a 4.67 ERA and an xFIP over 5. His control at AAA has been terrible, with a 4.41 BB/9. While it’s always tough to gauge how an inexperienced rookie can be, I’m going to take my chances on the Braves tonight as they get this matchup plus they are hitting the ball well again.
I’m going to go home run chasing here and will start with Marcel Ozuna and Matt Olson. Over the last 2 weeks, both of these guys have homered 5 times. In terms of priority, I’m going to give the slight edge to Matt Olson. For starters, he’s significantly cheaper at $4.8k compared to Ozuna’s $5.7k salary. He’s also going to get the platoon advantage and that’s always key. Olson has now homered in back-to-back games and has homered in 4 of his last 6 games. In what could be considered a disappointing season for him compared to last year, he’s rolling right now at the right time for the Braves.
After Ozuna and Olson, I’ll look to guys like Jorge Soler, Orlando Arcia, and Austin Riley to round out my stack. If you want to snag more lefties, and cheap lefties, Jarred Kelenic and Eddie Rosario will accomplish that. Neither is a priority as both guys are mostly slumping and are more likely to strikeout than get a hit.
Minnesota Twins vs. Davis Martin and the White Sox Bullpen
The Chicago White Sox will turn the ball over to Davis Martin tonight. Martin is making just the second appearance of the season in the Majors after missing more than a year thanks to TJ surgery. He’s pitched a total of 23 innings this season across multiple levels of the minors and his relief appearance the other day.
With how few innings he’s pitched, we should expect this to mostly be a bullpen game for the Sox. Over the last 2 weeks, the White Sox bullpen has an ERA of 6 and an xFIP of 5. We have the potential to see 6 innings or more of the bullpen tonight. That would be phenomenal for us.
When healthy, there are few bats that are as potent as Royce Lewis. In just 30 games this season, he’s homered 11 times. Spread out over the course of a full season, that would equate to nearly 60 homers. I’m not saying he’d be able to keep up that pace for a full year, but he has that type of strength to be able to homer that frequently. He’s just never healthy. He is now and I’m going to lock him into my Twins stack.
Next up will be Matt Wallner who is crushing the ball right now. He has 3 homers over his last 22 AB and a 1.35 OPS. He’s also just $3.5k on DK. Other bats I like here are Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Santana. Don’t be surprised to see the Twins get into double digits tonight.
Other stacks I like tonight will be Boston vs. Jose Urena, Yankees vs. Kevin Gausman, O’s vs. Carlos Carrasco, and A’s vs. Gavin Stone. There are a ton of bats in great spots tonight.
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