Jared Levitt 
Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and we have ourselves a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. Unlike last night, we don’t have 2 studs facing off like we did with Sale and Snell. What an absolute joy to watch that was. The 2 southpaws combined to strike out 23 hitters with the Braves coming out on top 1-0. It’s rare that we ever get to see games like that these days. Tonight will be different as we have just a few above-average arms going. On the flip side, there are a bunch of really great spots for bats.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Michael King ($9.5k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Not sure how happy I’ll be to play chalk Michael King, but this slate is really limited with quality arms. King is the most expensive and arguably the most talented arm. The key piece to the Juan Soto to the Yanks trade, King has been very solid in the brown and yellow of the Padres. At 129 innings, he’s already surpassed the career high in innings. It’s quite possible that at some point soon, his innings will be monitored, especially with Joe Musgrove back in the mix.
Over the last month, King has been very strong. Pitching to an ERA of 2.95 and having a K rate that’s bumping pretty close to 32%. He gets a favorable matchup tonight vs. a Pirates lineup that has been mediocre at best over the last week. They’ve scored just 25 runs and have a strikeout rate of 30%. I’ll have a bottle of Tums next to me, but I’m rocking King as my SP1 this evening.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8.7k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies
Eduardo Rodriguez made his return last week in what could be said were mixed results. The matchup in his firs start could not have been tougher as he faced the Guardians. The Guardians are a solid lineup with players who rarely K vs. lefties. He gets a much easier task tonight vs. the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have been one of the worst teams in the league this season vs. lefties. The projected lineup for them tonight has a collective 28% K rate vs. lefties over the last month and a sub .285 wOBA. 7 of the 9 hitters in this lineup have a K rate of at least 25% vs. lefties over the last month, with 4 being in the mid 30’s and above.
He’s still at a nice discount compared to what we were paying for him last season. Look for him to return to the glory of last year in a plus matchup. Far from safe, but on a slate like this and his price tag I’m willing to roll the dice.
Outside of these 2, I have little interest in anyone else. Lugo has been very good this year but he gets a tough Twins team and he’s not really blowing away people with his 13% K rate over the last month. He’s in play, but just know he has a very low ceiling in this matchup. A case could also be made to throw Paul Blackburn vs. his former team. He’s going to be chalky and there’s nothing worse than Paul Blackburn chalk.
Same could be said for Nestor Cortes vs. the White Sox. It’s the White Sox so he’ll chalk. The only thing worse than Blackburn chalk is Cortes chalk. Colin Rea has been good, but he’s facing a Dodgers team that is getting healthy. No thanks. I may have some interest in Kyle Harrison as he takes on a struggling Braves lineup. Kevin Gausman has strikeout upside, but he’s as inconsistent as they come.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Texas Rangers vs. Kutter Crawford
Kutter Crawford is lost right now. He’s had 4 horrendous games and it’s not like this isn’t something we haven’t seen from him in the past. He had a stretch similar to this a couple of months ago. He’s now given up 22 ER over his last 4 starts and has also allowed 13 homers. Although he gave up just one of those bombs in his last outing, he did allow 4 walks in just 3 and 2/3 innings.
He’s been making just a ton of mistakes and until he figures out, he’s someone that we should continue to stack against. Both sides of the plate are going to be in business as he’s been terrible vs. both. That said, lefties have a .619 ISO vs. him over the last month. It’s exaggerated, but again, he’s been awful for a while now.
Core Plays: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia
Secondary Plays: Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Wyatt Langford
Value: Leody Taveras
Padres vs. Luis Ortiz
On paper, the Padres get one of the best matchups of the day vs. Luis Ortiz. He’s a low strikeout pitcher who has been giving up a ton of power of late. Over his last 23 innings of work, he’s given up 6 bombs and 7 barrels. He’s allowing a greater than 52% fly ball rate over the last month, with the majority of that being allowed to lefties. Lefties also have a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last 30 days.
To make matters even better here, the Pirates bullpen hasn’t been very good. Over the last 2 weeks, the Pirates bullpen has an ERA over 5 and an xFIP that’s nearly identical. The Padres have been playing some amazing ball and that should continue tonight in this plus matchup.
Core Bats: Jackson Merrill, Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth, Donovan Solano
Secondary Bats: Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim
Value Plays: David Peralta
Before commenting on the Dbacks tonight, I’ll want to see their lineup. Marte has now left 2 games early over the last 3 days. He’s banged up and I can see them sitting him again. I do like Bell and Suarez though vs. Gomber and Kevin Newman for value. I don’t mind the White Sox here vs. Nestor Cortes. Cortes is average at best and he’s been terrible recently. I’d go with guys like Vaughn, Korey Lee, and then Corey Julks for value. Luis Robert is in play, but he’s really expensive and he’s been awful ever since Jose Ramirez clocked him last year.
Should Paul Blackburn come in as chalk today, I’ll look to the A’s. It’s a high risk/high reward play as the the A’s are all or nothing. Blackburn has historically been a reverse splits pitcher so Rooker/Andujar/Shea are in play. That said, don’t shy away from Butler and Bleday. Zack Gelof is a nice value play who’s hitting the ball well right now, with 2 bombs over the last week.
The Royals will be taking on a pitcher in Zebby Matthews who is making his big league debt. Matthews has skyrocketed through the Twins system this season. He’s got some raw, but really nasty stuff. Royals would be in play, but it’s always risky taking on the unknown.
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