Jared Levitt 
Guess what day it is? Hump Day! In contrast to most Wednesdays, we actually have a main slate that happens at night tonight. MLB has blessed us with a 7-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. At first glance, this slate is kinda blah in my opinion. This slate really lacks top-end pitching tonight, but it also lacks what we normally consider a true gas can. We’ll have to make do with some mid-tier pitching, but with the way things have gone this season, that’s ok.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Garrett Crochet ($8.6k on DK) vs. Minnesota Twins
After taking the world by storm in his first 3 outings this season by throwing 3 straight gems, Garrett Crochet came crashing down to earth in his last 2 outings. While his outings were pretty rough, I’m going to give him somewhat of a pass in those games. Those 2 outings came against 2 very strong offenses in the Phillies and the Reds. Tonight he’ll get a much easier task against a weak-hitting Twins lineup. The Twins have really struggled vs. lefties this season. They have a 25% K rate vs. them and just a .624 OPS. The Twins also have a very low .277 wOBA vs. lefties this season.
Crochet has a ton of strikeout upside in this one. Even though he struggled in his last 2 outings, he still had a combined 13 K’s in those 2 games. Against a team striking out at a 25% clip against his handedness, I really like this spot for Crochet to return to his glory of his first 3 outings.
Clarke Schmidt ($8.9k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are bad. I repeat, the Oakland Athletics are bad. Although they were able to tag Marcus Stroman for 3 runs yesterday, Stroman was also able to whiff 9 A’s last night. I personally think that Clarke Schmidt has better stuff than Stroman. I don’t see any reason why Schmidt can’t replicate the type of outing Stroman had last night. He’s coming off back-to-back appearances that saw him rack up 7 K’s in each.
Those games were against far superior offenses in the Rays and Guardians. He hasn’t had a single start this season here he’s allowed more than 3 ER and that was in his initial outing this season. The last 3 outings were gems and he should be able to get another this evening. The only drawback I see with Schmidt tonight is that he isn’t going deep into games. He’s yet to make it out of the fifth inning this season. Will that trend end tonight? I certainly hope so.
I also like Joe Ryan tonight. I’m going to strategically fade him though as I think his ownership will be huge tonight. Being that he’s the only high-priced pitcher tonight, if we fade him and he does poorly it will put us ahead of the curve. He’s still very much in play though
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Houston Astros vs. Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon will be making just his second start of the season today. If you look at the box score of his first outing against the Marlins, you’d think he pitched well. He gave up just 3 hits, 1 ER, and struck out 4. Not bad you say, right? In digging in, it was atrocious. He gave up a 57% fly ball rate and a nearly 43% hard-hit rate. Against a team like the Marlins, that may fly. But against a team like the Astros, it won’t. That’s way too many fly balls and that’s way too many hard-hit balls.
Yes, these aren’t the Astros of old and yes they are just 7-17 on the season. They are 2 games back of the A’s for last place but they have scored 30 more runs than the A’s. Pitching has been what has done them in, not their offense. Against a pitcher like Taillon, they should smash. I’m going to give the lefties a bit of a nod here as Taillon has been slightly worse against lefties throughout his career.
You know what that means! Insert Yordan Alvarez into all my lineups tonight. He is far and away my top hitter tonight. Alvarez has yet to really break out this season. While we’ve yet to really see the breakout, he still does have some really solid numbers. He’s up to 5 homers on the year with 16 runs scored and 13 RBI. This is a spot where he should add to those numbers tonight. I also like his teammate Kyle Tucker. Tucker has had a strong week, with 5 hits in his last 15 AB and a team-leading .911 OPS over that stretch. He should also continue to smash tonight. Other guys I’ll look to here are going to be Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Mauricio Dubon for some value. I expect the Astros to have a monster game tonight.
Atlanta Braves vs. Sixto Sanchez and the Marlins bullpen
The Marlins will be turning the ball over to Sixto Sanchez today, one of the centerpieces of the JT Realmuto trade from years back. To say this trade was a huge success for the Marlins would be an outright lie. It’s been one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history. Sanchez will be making his first start of the season after making 7 relief appearances.
While hasn’t given up a run in 2 weeks, he also hasn’t pitched much. I can’t imagine him going too long in this game and then we’ll get the Marlins bullpen. The Marlins bullpen has an ERA and xFIP in the mid 4’s. They are bad and they’ll be used heavily today. Between Sanchez and the bullpen, we should see plenty of scoring for the Braves today.
There may not be a hotter hitter in the game right now than Travis d’Arnaud. TDA has been red hot at the plate and that continued last night with another 2 hits and an extra-base hit. Over the last week, TDA has hit 5 bombs and has 10 RBI. While I normally reserve him for use against lefties, he has a respectable .171 ISO vs. righties this season. At $4.4k, he’s still reasonably priced, even for a catcher. After TDA, I’ll also look to Michael Harris at $4.6k. He too is smoking the ball right now. Over his last 21 AB, he has 8 hits and has crossed the plate 5 times.
Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna, and Orlando Arcia are also in play here. If you want to play it risky, a guy like Jarred Kelenic is worth a look at $3.2k. He’s struggling as usual, but he’s also been getting very unlucky with a BABIP of just .125. He’s getting a lot of medium-hit contact and could finally get some luck in this easy matchup today.
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