Jared Levitt 
TGIF to all those that made it through the week. It’s Friday and that almost always means a large slate. Tonight is no different as we have ourselves a large 10-game slate of MLB DFS. We’re back to having Coors games so the slate decisions will be should we or shouldn’t we. Mother Nature may help us with that decision tonight as there’s rain in the forecast for that one. This slate does present us with some aces, but it also presents us with some gas cans.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Freddy Peralta ($9.5k on DK) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Freddy Peralta was originally slated to pitcher on Wednesday, but the Brewers opted to give him some extra rest and that is good news for us. The reason it’s good news for us is that he draws a much better matchup tonight. This isn’t the Cardinals team of years past. Guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are finally starting to slow down a bit and that really makes this lineup average.
Against righties this season, they’ve been bad as they have a 24% K rate and a wOBA below .300. I attack them often, but when a guy like Peralta is on the mound vs. them it’s almost a must-play in my eyes. Peralta has been very strong this season with a nearly 40% K rate and just a 2.55 ERA. He should be able to walk through this lineup tonight with relative ease.
Joe Ryan ($8.9k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers
This game has the potential to be a real snooze fest today. We have 2 poor offenses and at least one good pitcher throwing. That one good pitcher is Joe Ryan. Ryan has been very good to start the season. Through 3 starts this season, Ryan already has 24 strikeouts. One of those starts was a masterful gem vs,. this very Tigers team. In that game, Ryan struck out 12 in just 6 innings and only allowed 1 ER.
While I don’t think he gets up to 12 K’s again tonight, this is a weak-hitting Tigers team that has struck out nearly 25% of the time so far this season vs. righties. This is a strong spot for Ryan and one he should excel in. Look for him to be one of the top arms on the slate tonight.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Yankees vs. Tyler Alexander
I vowed to stay away from the Yankees going forward but they brought me back in. This matchup is just too good to pass up. Alexander has been terrible to start the season. He now has 3 starts under his belt and only one of them was remotely close to being average. That game was against a light-hitting Giants team. He owns a 6.46 ERA and a 5.28 xFIP to start the season. He does what I look for in a pitcher I stack against.
He allows a lot of contact at nearly 85% and he also allows a ton of hard contact at nearly 36%. That’s a lot of hard contact making it into play. He’s also been allowing a lot of homers as he’s allowed 5 through his 3 starts. We want the righties here as they have a .681 slugging % vs. him to start the season.
Aaron Judge has been mostly quiet to start the year. He has just 3 homers on the season but he does have 11 RBI. If ever there was a game that screamed break out, this is it. He’s struggled with K’s recently as he has 9 over the last week. I’m not overly worried about it in this matchup as Alexander is a contact pitcher. Judge has historically crushed lefties and he should here.
I’ll also look to Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton in this matchup. Both guys hit lefties well and Alexander is a lefty that can be had. While I won’t force him in with this matchup, Juan Soto is always in play. He’s crushing the ball with 6 barrels over the last week and has also walked 7 times. The Yankees have one of the higher implied runs total on the night and I think they get every bit of it.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Gibson
Even though the Brewers are without their top bat in Christian Yelich, they are still a very strong offense. And they are an offense that gets a great matchup vs. an aging pitcher in Kyle Gibson. Gibson now has 3 starts this season under his belt and they have not been good. He’s allowed a combined 11 runs over his last 2 and hasn’t had a start yet this season where he hasn’t given up a bomb. No pitcher on this slate has allowed more barrels on the year than Gibson.
In just 3 starts, he’s already allowed a mind-boggling amount of them at 9. That’s a huge number and indicates that hitters are really seeing the ball well against him. We’ll want to prioritize lefties here as they’ve crushed Gibson so far as they have a .618 slugging % vs. him so far.
That means we’ll look to guys like Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, and Oliver Dunn. My favorite of this trio is going to be Frelick in the leadoff spot. He’s just $3.6k and someone hitting the ball well right now. Over his last 27 AB, he has 9 hits and a nearly 92% contact rate. He’s putting a ton of balls in play right now and that’s when magic happens. After the lefties, I’ll look to guys like Willy Adames and William Contreras. Both guys are playing really well right now, with OPS’s over 1. Outside of Contrares and Adames, this lineup is very cheap tonight and is going to be where we look for value. They should put up a ton of runs at not a lot of money.
Other stacks I like today are the Dodgers vs. Sean Manaea, the Royals vs. Dean Kremer, and the Orioles vs. Alec Marsh.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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