Jared Levitt 
It’s Wednesday and that means day baseball! We have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 1 pm EST today. At a high level, this early slate mostly leaves us void of any real true aces. For the most part at least. That’s ok though because it does give us some really solid mid-tier pitching that’s priced in a way we’ll be able to get some big bats into our stacks.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Steven Matz ($6.7k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics
There are definitely much better pitchers on this slate. Of those pitchers though, I’m not a huge fan of the matchups. Could we go Freddy Peralta? Sure, but he’s facing off against a really solid Padres lineup and I’m not a huge fan of attacking them with pitchers. At $6.7k, we’re getting a pitcher in Steven Matz who has probably been a better real-life pitcher than a fantasy pitcher.
That said, he has some upside today vs. an A’s team that is striking out 32% of the time vs. lefties on the year. We really don’t need much from Matz today for him to hit value. We had 3-4 K’s and him going around 5-6 innings while just allowing a run or 2. With this type of matchup, that’s very much in play.
Brady Singer ($9.2k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
Since last night’s game between the Royals and White Sox was ppd, I’m going to leave this write-up for Singer since it still holds true. Some may say it’s lazy thinking, but I say work smarter and not harder. Yes, I’ll be picking on both the A’s and White Sox on most nights. They both have anemic offenses and offenses that strike out quite a bit. Against righties this season, the White Sox are striking out around 23% of the time and putting up next to no offense. Their wOBA vs. righties this season is a whopping .269. That’s terrible and something we want to pick on as often as we can.
For Singer’s part, he’s been really good. His xFIP on the young season is just 3.18 and he has an ERA below 1. Singer also has a K rate hovering around 26%. He should be able to put up a ton of DK points tonight in this matchup. Again, anything can happen in baseball but I really like Singer’s chances of joining Lynn as one of the higher performers tonight on the mound.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Mets vs. Bailey Falter
After starting the season 0-5, the Mets are now over .500 for the first time this season thanks to winning 9 of their last 12 games. They’ll look to keep the good times rolling with a soft matchup vs. Bailey Falter this afternoon. We now have a several-season look at Falter to know that he’s nothing more than an average-at-best major league pitcher. His career ERA is 4.73 and has a FIP that is nearly identical.
He’s starting out the season very close to his career numbers. While only 1 of his 3 starts has been bad, his overall performance has not been good. He owns a nearly 35% hard-hit rate against and has allowed an 85% contact rate. That’s really something we want to target and we’ll do so with one of the hottest teams in the league.
Any Mets stack needs to start with the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso. Alonso has been hot at the plate, with 3 homers over the last week as well as 7 runs scored. He’ll be a lock in all of my lineups. Another hitter on the Mets swing a hot stick has been Starling Marte. After struggling with injuries last season, the Mets may finally have a healthy Marte and that’s huge for this lineup. He has 8 hits in his last 27 AB and has scored 5 runs. He’s relatively cheap at just $3.8k.
Other guys I’ll look to here are going to be Harrison Bader and Francisco Lindor. Lindor is starting to show some signs of life and hopefully, he has a monster game here as the Mets look to win their 10th game of the season.
Kansas City Royals vs. Jonathan Cannon
The Chicago White Sox will turn the ball over to a pitcher making his major league debut today in Jonathan Cannon. If we look at Cannon’s minor league stats over the last 3 seasons, they’re nothing to write home about. He has a career ERA approaching 4 and has a k/9 hovering around 8. He did take a it up a notch through his first 2 starts this season as it’s a little bit over 10 K/9.
That said, he profiles as just a back end of the rotation guy so he’s far from a top prospect for the White Sox. Knowing that, I’m going to stack heavily against him today and hope at some point early, we get to a White Sox bullpen that has the second highest xFIP in the league so far this season.
I’m starting out my Royals stack with one of the top young players in the game, Bobby Witt Jr. Witt is an elite hitter who continues to make things happen. Over the last week, Witt has 7 hits in 25 AB but has more importantly scored 9 runs. He’s as productive as anyone in the league right now. He does however come at a steep price on DK today.
After him, I’ll look to Vinnie Pasquantino. Vinnie has been crushing the ball recently, with 3 homers in his last 18 AB over the last week. He also has a team leading 10 RBI during that stretch. We’ll have to make a decision between him and Alonso today. I’m going to side with Pasquantino a bit today because he’s nearly $1k cheaper. After these 2, I’ll look to guys like Salvador Perez, Neslon Velazquez, and Hunter Renfroe. The Royals should put up a ton of runs today.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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