Jared Levitt 
We made it to the weekend y’all! MLB has blessed us with an 11-game day slate of MLB DFS today. At first glance, this slate lacks any proven top-tier pitching. What it does give us though are a couple of young guns that could do really well today. They also have tough matchups though where the outcome could be a bit different than they’ve grown accustomed to at the start of the young season.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Ryan Pepiot ($8.1k on DK) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Giants don’t strike out a whole lot, but they also don’t score many runs. At a price point of $8.1k for Pepiot, we won’t need a whole boat of strikeouts today for him to reach value. We’ll need about 5-6 strikeouts and giving up just a run or 2. With the way that he’s performed so far this season, that is 100% within the realm of possibility today.
Pepiot has now started 2 games this season. He threw an absolute gem in Colorado a week ago, striking out 11 and not allowing a run in 6 innings of work. He also faced the Rangers earlier in the year, a game in which he struggled. All we need is a performance right in the middle of that and he’ll do just fine for us today. The Giants are not a good offense, especially against righties. I 100% think he can have a solid outing here and he’s not going to cost us much.
MacKenzie Gore ($8.8k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics
There are several teams that I’m going to continuously pick on this season with pitchers. The Oakland Athletics are going to be one of those teams. They were just awful last season and I don’t see how they aren’t going to be just as bad this season. The organization from top to bottom is a complete mess. While they have a respectable 6-8 record, they also have a -21 run differential so far this season.
Through the 14 games, they’ve scored just 39 runs. That’s less than 3 runs a game. That’s terrible and something we want to pick on as much as we can. Through 2 games so far this season, Gore has pitched fairly effectively. He’s struck out 6 in each game and has allowed just 5 ER total. Against a team that has a nearly 27% K rate vs. lefties, there’s definitely some upside for Gore this afternoon. Look for him to have a solid game today.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Minnesota Twins vs. Kent Maeda
Today we’re going to have a battle of bad offense vs. even worse pitching. While the Twins offense has yet to really have their awakening so far this season, I think it comes this afternoon against Kent Maeda. Maeda so far has looked terrible. As Charles Barkley would probably say, he’s been terrible, just terrible. In his 2 outings so far, he’s faced the White Sox and A’s.
Two bad offenses and he’s allowed a combined 4 homers and 9 ER. He’s allowed 4 barrels in his 9 innings of work. If ever there was a matchup that would wake up the struggling Minnesota Twins offense, it’s this. Is there a risk here? Of course, there is. Anytime you use a struggling offense, it’s risky. But this is a good matchup here as Maeda has really been bad.
The first person I’m looking at with this stack is going to be Edouard Julien. Julien is one of the few Twins hitters who’s really hitting the ball well right now. Over the last week, Julien has a wOBA of .459. He also has 4 barrels and 2 homers over that stretch. With the platoon advantage here, I like him to have a solid day here. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a leadoff homer out of him either.
I’ll also look to guys like Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, and Max Kepler. This lineup has too much talent to stay down for too long. Look for the struggling Kent Maeda to really give this lineup a fighting chance to finally put up some runs today.
Boston Red Sox vs. Griffin Canning
I really wish Rafael Devers was healthy here, but he’s not and will more than likely miss this game. Even with him missing the game, I still really like this spot for Boston. They were embarrassed in front of the home crowd last night, but they’ll get a much easier task tonight against Griffin Canning. Canning has been awful to start the season. He boasts an 8.38 ERA and a 6.7 xFIP. He’s allowed 4 homers and 7 barrels in just 9 innings of work.
It’s been a huge struggle for him so far and I think he’ll continue to struggle this afternoon. The Red Sox currently have an implied run total of 5 and I think they get all of it and more this afternoon. Canning has historically struggled vs. righties as they have a .501 slugging % vs. him. That’s compared to just a .398 for lefties.
I’m starting this Red Sox Stack with Tyler O’Neill. He’s really been the guy in this lineup that has been hitting the best this season. Even though he has just 3 hits over the last week, it’s been somewhat of bad luck as his BABIP is a whopping .111. When he’s made contact, he’s crushed the ball. Yes, he’s got a nearly 50% strikeout rate over the last week, but he’s facing a pitcher in Canning today who has an 82% contact rate. I’m not worried about strikeouts here for O’Neill. Look for him to get back on track today.
Other guys I like here are Triston Casas and Caddanne Rafaela. Even though they are lefties, I also like Jarren Duran, Masatak Yoshida, and Triston Casas. I’m expecting a lot of runs in this game today for the Red Sox.
Other stacks I like today are the Mets vs. Alec Marsh, Orioles vs. DL Hall, and Astros vs. Andrew Heaney.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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