Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Friday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. Here are the teams that still have something to play for: New York Mets, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, and the San Diego Padres. The Orioles are still in the hunt, but at 5 games back they need more than a miracle to make it. As we’ve seen over the last few days, lineups are going to be wonky. So what makes for a good play now, may be extremely different come lock.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Corbin Burnes vs. Miami Marlins
Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers received a nice gift yesterday with the Phillies were shutout by the Cubs. While many MLB DFS players hated it, the Brewers were incredibly grateful. With the Brewers now just a .5 game back of the Phillies for that final WC spot, we can be sure that Burnes will have his normal pitch count.
After getting roughed up by the Mets, Burnes rebounded nicely in his last outing to strike out 8 in just a little over 6 innings of work. He should be able to replicate that today against a bad Marlins lineup. The projected Marlins for tonight have just a .102 ISO vs. righties over the last month and a .273 wOBA. It’s September and anything can happen this time of the year, but I really like this spot for Burnes tonight.
Clayton Kershaw vs. Colorado Rockies
Although the Dodgers have nothing to play for at this point, I do think they give Kershaw enough rope tonight for him to be able to pay off his $9.6k DK salary tonight. We saw last night that this Rockies team could be dominated by a lefty. Rodon struck out 10 in just 6 innings of work.
Do I think that Kershaw gets that many? Probably not. But Kershaw has been pitching extremely well. Over the last month, Kershaw has just a 1.80 ERA and a 31% K rate. He’s been able to induce a hard-hit rate of just 22.70%, by far the lowest of any pitcher throwing tonight.
Yu Darvish vs. Chicago White Sox
With this being a home game for the Padres, I’m all over Yu Darvish tonight. At home, Darvish has a 2.45 ERA this season. That’s more than a run lower than on the road. He’s been completely different when pitching in San Diego. Tonight he gets a good matchup vs. an extremely disappointing White Sox team.
Darvish is coming into this pitching some really solid baseball. Over his last 33 innings of work, he’s pitched to a 1.36 ERA and he also has a 31% K rate over that period. In the month of September, he’s allowed just 5 ER in his 5 starts and has been under 7 K’s just once. The White Sox are a very beatable team when facing a righty and Darvish should be able to dominate tonight.
Jacob Degrom is also in play tonight. Just need to keep in mind that he hasn’t been overly sharp in his last 2 outings. In his last outing he really struggled against the Athletics. The Mets will need him to be on his A game tonight and as a Mets fan, I hope he brings it.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Seattle Mariners vs. Ken Waldichuk
Rookie pitcher Ken Waldichuk has really struggled so far in his Major League stint. Through 5 starts, he has a really high 7.15 ERA. While ERA isn’t always an indicator of how someone is pitching, most of his other metrics are also pretty bad. He’s giving up a flyball rate over 45% and has also been giving up a hard-hit over 35%. In just 22 innings of work, he’s also given up 11 barrels. That’s a pretty high pace that indicates he’s overmatched at this level.
Over his last 3 starts, he’s given up 14 ER in just 12 innings of work. So far at the big league level, Waldichuk hasn’t figured out how to get righties out. Righties have a .667 slugging % and a .439 wOBA. They also have a .319 average vs. him.
Core: My core tonight with the Mariners will consist of Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, and Dylan Moore. With a lefty on the mound, these guys will more than likely bat 1,2,3 tonight for the Mariners. All three have solid numbers vs. lefties. On the year, Suarez has a .565 slugging % vs. southpaws and a .952 OPS. Both are extremely solid numbers. He’s also coming into this one after a really good Texas series with 5 hits over his last 2 games. He should smash in this spot.
Dylan Moore has been really strong when in the lineup against lefties. He has a .485 wOBA and a 57% hard-hit rate. He should hit leadoff tonight and is only $3.1k. That’s a great price for a leadoff hitter.
Secondary Pieces/Value: Other pieces I really like tonight will be Mitch Haniger, Carlos Santana, and Sam Haggarty. Santana has smashed lefties over the last month, with a .318 ISO and .390 wOBA. If you decide to fade either France or Suarez tonight, going with Santana at $2.6k tonight would be a great pivot.
The Mariners’ magic number is 1 for the WC. You can rest assured that tonight they’ll roll out their A lineup so they can end the longest playoff drought in the Majors.
Texas Rangers vs. Reid Detmers
The Texas Rangers will get to square off against Angels rookie Reid Detmers tonight. While Detmers has shown at times that he can hang out at the Major League level and be a respectable starter, the last month has been different. Detmers is coming into this one not pitching overly well. He’s given up at least 4 ER in 4 of his last 6 starts. Some of it has been just bad luck as he has a .357 BABIP.
The rest has been his doing though. He’s been giving up a massive line drive rate at nearly 26% and a ton of flyballs at 40%. So two-thirds of all contact is either a line drive or in the air. It’s tough to be successful with those types of numbers. We’ll want to give a slight lean to the righties in this matchup, but lefties will still be in play.
Core: My Rangers core will consist of Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe, and Adolis Garcia. All three have done really well against lefties over the last month. While Garcia is normally better against righties, his numbers against lefties over the last month have been great. He’s sporting a .231 ISO and a .367 wOBA. Semien has also been really good vs. lefties over the last month, with a .393 wOBA. He’s coming into this one with a modest 5-game hitting streak.
Value: After my core, I’m just going to jump right to the value plays here. Those are going to be Sam Huff and Josh Jung. Jung is just $2.6k and Huff is $2.2k tonight on DK. Both guys have smashed lefties over the last month. Jung has a .434 wOBA and a .407 ISO. Huff has a .400 wOBA. Huff makes for a great punt at catcher tonight
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Nick Pivetta
I like attacking Pivetta during the stretches where he’s pitching poorly and he’s in one of those right now. Over his last 3 starts, Pivetta has given up 11 ER. His last start against the Yankees was one of his worst of the year as he gave up 5 ER in just 5 innings of work. His struggles should continue tonight against a solid Blue Jays lineup.
Another thing that has me on the Blue Jays is that Pivetta is giving up a ton of hard contact right now. His hard-hit rate over the last month is nearly 38%. That’s one of the highest marks of any of the 28 pitchers throwing today. He’s also given up 8 barrels over his last 3 starts. With Pivetta, both sides of the plate are in play. Both sides have slugging %’s over .400.
Core/Value: I’ll start my Blue Jays stack with the 3 big boppers at the top of the lineup. Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, and George Springer all present us with the most upside here. They each have multiple homer potential in any game. Of the 3, my favorite is Springer. Of his last 5 hits, 3 have left the park. He also has very strong numbers against Pivetta in his career, with a .467 average in 19 plate appearances. Bichette would be up next on my priority list here. He’s hitting the ball well, with 8 hits in his last 26 AB. With a strong final push to end the year, Bichette has a shot at 100 RBI.
Value: Other bats I like here are going to be the value bats. And that’s Whitt Merrifield and Ramon Tapia. Both guys are at $3k or less. My lean if is Tapia as he’ll have the platoon advantage tonight.
MLB DFS Summary
Other MLB DFS stacks I like tonight will be the Pirates vs. Jack Flaherty, Yankees vs. Jordan Lyles, and Twins vs. Tyler Alexander.
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Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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