Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Today we have a split slate of games, with both being small 4-game slates of MLB DFS. This article will highlight the early slate. For info about the late slate, make sure to drop into discord where we’ll be talking about plays for it later today.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Ranger Suarez vs. Chicago Cubs
I should lead by saying that pitching is absolutely atrocious on this early slate. Every pitcher has the ability to put up single digits today. Ranger Suarez does however appear to be one of the safer options on the mound. The Cubs aren’t a very good team. But this is the time of year when “kids” are in the lineup playing for their spot on next year’s roster. This same Cubs team put up a 4 spot on Aaron Nola last night and gave him the big fat L.
That said, this is also a Cubs team that is not very good against lefties. The projected lineup tonight has just a .090 ISO vs. lefties over the last month and a K rate over 28%. Suarez doesn’t have much K upside, but he does have what is probably the highest floor of any pitcher this afternoon. Normally we chase ceilings, but on a day with options like we have today, I’m going to go with the safety net.
Jonathan Heasley vs. Detroit Tigers
This pick makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth. That said, Heasley has actually been pitching really well of late. He’s been doing a great job of limiting any hard contact as his hard-hit rate is just 26% over the last month. That’s one of the best marks of any pitcher on the hill this afternoon. He’s also been in double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 7 outings.
It also helps that he draws a great matchup against a bad Tigers team. The projected lineup today has just a .149 ISO and a .291 wOBA against righties over the last month. This is far from a safe pick, but he’s been pitching well and gets a great matchup. Being only $7.1k on DK today makes me a little more comfortable using him as an SP2 today.
Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins
The one pitcher on this afternoon’s slate with any type of strikeout upside is Lucas Giolito. Over the last month, he has had a 27% K rate. The next pitcher on the list is Javier Assad at just 22%. While the year hasn’t been great for Gio, his xFIP of 3.66 tells us that a lot of it has just been bad luck for Gio.
He has a career-high BABIP of .352. His next closest season is .273. He is however coming into this off of a 9-strikeout performance against the Tigers, so his confidence is probably pretty high. Those 9 k’s were the most he’s had in a game since May. I will more than likely go with a combo of Suarez and Heasley, but if you want to feel frisky today Gio is your guy.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Javier Assad
We’re at a weird time of the year. Many teams have been eliminated and only a handful of teams have anything to play for. The Phillies are one of the few that have a reason to play hard right now. Their loss to the Cubs last night trimmed their Wild Card lead over the Brewers to just a half-game. They are in a must-win mode right now. Luckily for them, they get a soft matchup vs. Javier Assad today.
The key for the Phillies today will be to remain patient at the plate. Assad has a ton of issues with walks of late, as evidenced by his 5.4 BB/9 over the last month. In his last 3 starts, he’s given up a combined 10 walks while striking out 11. Not exactly a great ratio. With Assad, we’ll want to attack him with lefties. Lefties have a .469 slugging % and a .363 wOBA. Both are significantly higher than what righties have done against him.
Core/Value: My Phillies core this afternoon will consist of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh. My favorite here is by far Bryce Harper. Assad throws his cutter to lefties around 36% of the time. That’s his most heavily used pitch against them. This is a pitch that Harper has crushed. Over the last several seasons, Harper has a .511 ISO and a .506 wOBA vs. righty cutters. It’s been a few days since Harper last homered and that very well could change today with how well he lines up with Assad.
While Marsh doesn’t have the power numbers against cutters that Harper has, he’s no slouch against them as he has a .440 wOBA vs. righty cutters. He’s just $2.1k today and is a great value.
Secondary Pieces: Other bats I’ll look to include here this afternoon will be Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm.
Chicago White Sox vs. Louie Varland
I typically reserve using the White Sox against lefties but they get a really nice matchup today. Varland has really been getting smacked around since getting called up to the big leagues. In just 16 innings of work Varland has given up 4 homers and 5 barrels. His hard-hit rate against is 41% and his flyball rate is over 45%. With both of those numbers being over 40%, it’s really a recipe for complete disaster.
So far in his big league career, it’s been the righties that have given him the most heartbreak. Righties have a .618 slugging % vs. him and a .418 wOBA. Both numbers are extremely high and he’s going to face a righty dominant lineup today. I’m not going to ignore the lefties there though because they still have a .467 slugging % vs. him.
Core: My core with the White Sox today starts and ends with Eloy Jimenez. Anytime there’s a reverse splits pitcher going against Jimenez I pounce on the opportunity to use him. He’s been phenomenal vs. righties this season, hitting over .300 and slugging over .500. He’s gone hitless in his last 2 games, but that changes today.
Secondary/Value: After locking in Jimenez, I’m going to load up on bats like Elvis Andrus, Jose Abreu, and Gavin Sheets. This has Gavin Sheets home run day written all over it. Sheets has a .262 ISO against righties over the past month and a .303 wOBA. I normally pick my spots with Sheets and this is one of the spots I really like him in. It also helps that Sheets is just $2.5k on DK this afternoon. He is one of my favorite value pieces of the day.
Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Baumann
I will more than likely be sticking with the Phillies and White Sox, but the Red Sox are also in a good spot today. My concern with the Red Sox though is that Baumann is an extreme groundball pitcher. If you go here, you’ll want to go full stack or no stack. Home run chasing in this matchup will be extremely difficult against a pitcher that has a nearly 56% groundball rate, and one that climbs to over 80% against lefties.
That said, Baumann also gives up a ton of hard contact. His hard-hit rate over the last month is over 44%, by far the most of any pitcher on this afternoon’s slate. Lefties, while hitting a ton of grounders against him, have a hard-hit rate of over 57% against him.
Core: My Red Sox core today will start with Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts. Verdugo is really hot at the plate right now. He had another 2 hits in last night’s game, one of which left the park. He has hits in 8 straight games and very well could make it 9 today. Against righties over the last month, he has a .361 wOBA and a .208 ISO. Up next will be Devers.
Devers is also swinging a hot stick right now, with 6 hits in 12 AB in this series. He only has 2 AB vs. Baumann but is 2 for 2. He’s been of the Red Sox’s best hitters all year and should have a solid day at the plate today.
Value: I also really like Rob Refsndyer and Connor Wong here for value. Both guys are priced under $3k today and have been extremely productive of late. They should help you fit any bats you want today.
MLB DFS Summary
Other MLB DFS stacks I like today will be the Twins vs. Giolito if you don’t use him and the Royals vs. Eduardo Rodriguez. Also, if you aren’t using Heasley, stack against him with some Tigers.
Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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