Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a small 4-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. Options are limited on both the mound and in the batter’s box. I’d recommend playing light on this slate.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Spencer Strider vs. Colorado Rockies
We saw what Kyle Wright was able to do vs. this Rockies lineup last night, 7 innings with no runs allowed and 6 K’s. With Strider having the better season and coming into this one hot, there’s no reason to think that Strider can’t do the same or even better. Over his last 12 starts, he’s given up more than 1 ER just twice. Since May 1, he’s given up more than 1 ER just 6 times. Over the last month, he has had an ERA of 2.73, a strikeout rate of 35.5%, and a WHIP of 1.06. He’s an elite pitcher, in an elite matchup, and is priced under $9k on DK tonight. I suspect his ownership will be through the roof tonight, but it’s chalk that we’ll need to eat in GPP’s
Shane Bieber vs. Baltimore Orioles
I’m not normally a fan of attacking this Orioles lineup with my MLB DFS pitchers, especially with the addition of Gunnar Henderson, but our options are extremely limited tonight with it being just a 4-game slate. That said, Bieber has been solid over the last month, with a 1.62 ERA and a 27% K rate. He’s also sporting a WHIP under 1. Bieber has also gone 6 consecutive starts without giving up more than 2 ER. He’s been able to shut down most offenses and there’s no reason to think that he can’t shut down this Orioles offense. My starting pitching pairing will more than likely be Strider/Bieber tonight on DK.
Brandon Woodruff vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
While the ERA has been pretty low for Woodruff over the last month at 2.76, there are a ton of red flags. Over the last month, Woodruff has been giving up a ton of flyballs and a ton of hard contact. His 39% hard-hit rate over the past month is tops of any pitcher on the mound tonight and by a pretty decent margin. His flyball rate of 44% ranks second to only Chad Kuhl. He’s also going to be facing a team in the Diamondbacks that has just a 16% k rate vs. righties over the last month. This game has floor written all over it. That said, he’s still the same pitcher that just mowed down 10 Cubs a week ago. He’s my SP3 tonight and if you plan on using him tonight, make sure to have a bottle of Tums sitting next to you.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Atlanta Braves vs. Chad Kuhl
Hate to keep going back to the well with the Braves, but they continue to get solid matchups. In MLB DFS, if you get stuck on a team, you need to continue to play them in plus matchups even if they haven’t been taking advantage of them. At some point, they’ll blow up and you’ll be happy you continued with the play. Chad Kuhl has been a disaster on the road this season. Away from Coors, he’s sporting a 6.02 ERA which is almost 2 runs higher than his homer ERA of 4.17.
He’s coming off a stretch that has seen him give up at least 3 ER in 7 consecutive starts, 4 of which have been on the road. With Kuhl, we really don’t need to be overly concerned with splits. He’s giving up a slugging % over .475 to both sides of the plate and both sides also have wOBAs over .350.
Core: I’m going to start my Braves stack with the 2 guys that have been hitting the ball the best and have also been the most consistent. That’s going to be Austin Riley and Michael Harris. Riley hit his 32nd homer last night and continues to be the focal point of this offense. Over his last 18 AB, Riley has 7 hits and is sporting a 1.167 OPS. With Harris, we have someone that is also hot. In his last 19 AB, he has 9 hits and a team-leading 1.208 OPS over the last week. He’s been great vs. righties over the last month as well with a .402 wOBA and a .250 ISO. Both of these guys are in a great spot and will be locks in my lineup.
Secondary Pieces: After those 2, I’ll look to include Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna, and Matt Olson where I can. The three of them are all extremely expensive tonight, with all of them priced over $5.3k on DK. Of the 3, Swanson is probably my favorite as he’s been the most consistent. Last night was the first time he failed to get a hit in over a week but was still able to get on base twice thanks to a pair of walks.
Value: For value with this lineup, we can look to Vaughn Grissom, Robbie Grossman, and Eddie Rosario. None of these guys will be a priority for me but getting guys at $3k and below in a lineup expected to score close to 6 runs always makes for solid value.
Boston Red Sox vs. Glenn Otto
There’s a blow-up game coming for Glenn Otto and it’s going to be at the hands of the Boston Red Sox today. Over the last month, Otto has pitched to a 2.93 ERA. The xFIP and other metrics say there’s going to be some regression coming his way. His xFIP of 5.49 over the last month is more than 2.5 runs higher than his ERA. His 14% k rate is the lowest of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, as is his 8% swinging strike rate.
The Red Sox lineup is starting to hit the ball a bit better as they scored the seventh most runs over the last week. Otto has been a bit of reverse splits pitcher this season, with righties having a slugging % 80 points higher than lefties and a wOBA 50 points higher. We’ll have plenty of righties in this lineup to prioritize.
Core: I’m going to prioritize getting Tommy Pham and Xander Bogaerts into my Red Sox stack. Both guys are red-hot at the plate right now. Pham has hit safely in 7 straight games and has 11 hits in his last 31 AB. While he hasn’t hit for much in the way of power over the last week, he’s been a big part of this offense with his 7 runs scored over the last week. There may be no hotter hitter in the game right now than Bogaerts. He has multi-hit games in 6 of his last 7 games, including his grand slam last night. Considering his recent form, $5k for him on DK seems very reasonable.
Secondary/Value: Even though Otto has been better against lefties, I still want to grab some bats that will have the platoon advantage. Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Frenchy Cordero all fit that bill. Verdugo has been solid over the last week, with 9 hits in his last 27 AB. With him sandwiched between Pham and Bogaerts, we’ll get that 1-3 stack, and these three have been performing very well together. Frenchy Cordero has been extremely solid vs. righties over the last month, with a .563 ISO and a .433 wOBA. At just $2k tonight, he’s a solid value piece and one of the top value bats on the board.
Texas Rangers vs. Dick Mountain aka Rich Hill
A complete game stack here is very much in play. While Hill hasn’t pitched awful over the last month, he does have a couple of games giving up 4 ER and this is the type of matchup where he can get tagged for a lot of hits and a lot of runs. The Rangers this season have been much better against lefties. As a team, they have a 119 wRC and that’s one of the highest marks of any team in the league. The projected lineup tonight for the Rangers has a .364 wOBA and a .191 ISO vs. lefties over the last month.
Core: My priority with the Rangers tonight will be Nate Lowe, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia. All three have been the Rangers’ best hitters vs. southpaws over the last month. Yes, 2 of them will be in a L/L matchup but you have to respect what both Seager and Lowe have done vs. lefties. Over the last month, Lowe has a .528 wOBA vs. lefties and a .237 ISO. He excels in this type of matchup and will more than likely come in lower-owned thanks to people often being scared of L/L matchups. Seager also has been strong vs. lefties, with a .337 wOBA in August and a .207 ISO.
Secondary: After my core, I’ll look to add in Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, and Leody Taveras. None of these guys are hitting the cover off the ball right now, but are in positions to excel tonight. Heim is my favorite of the 3 as he’s been really good vs. lefties this season. He has a .525 slugging % vs. them and a .879 OPS. While he’s 0 for 13 over the last week, he has a 90% contact rate and almost all of his contact has been either medium or hard hit. He’ll break out tonight.
Value: Should Mark Mathias make the lineup tonight, he’ll be one of the top value plays on the board. He’s crushed lefties this season with a 1.000 slugging % in 14 plate appearances. He also has a .462 average vs. them with 2 bombs.
MLB DFS Summary
If you are fading Brandon Woodruff in MLB DFS tonight, using the Diamondbacks is an option. They got to Aaron Nola the other night and with how much hard contact Woodruff is giving up, they can certainly get to him too.
Make sure to check out our new Home Run Model, it’s been running white hot!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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