Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Playoffs? You want to talk about Playoffs? Yes! Yes, I do!. The 2022 MLB playoffs start today and as a Mets fan, I’m excited! MLB DFS is tough during the playoffs as we’re normally dealing with solid starting pitching and today’s pitching is quite good.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Max Scherzer vs. San Diego Padres
While the Padres are a star-studded lineup, the Mets signed Max Scherzer to a massive deal in November for this very moment. He’s been one of the best pitchers of our generation and tonight is his chance to shine on the big New York stage. He’s coming into this having struggled in his last outing vs. the Braves, giving up 4 ER in just 5 innings of work.
Prior to that though he had been lights out, not allowing more than an ER in 4 consecutive starts. His K rate is nearly 31% over the last month, tops of any pitcher today. He’ll have his hands full tonight, but he’s the best pitcher on the slate. I’m locking him in as my SP1.
Shane Bieber vs. Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll see a substantial drop off in strikeouts from Scherzer to Shane Bieber, but Bieber gets the better matchup today. This isn’t the same Rays team of last year when they had the likes of Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows. Lowe’s on the IL and Meadows was shipped off to the Tigers. While it’s a solid lineup, it’s also one that has struggled vs. righties. Over the last month, they have just a .117 ISO, a .224 wOBA, and a nearly 32% K rate vs. righties. This is a really solid spot for Bieber today.
Zack Wheeler vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While my lean right now is to lock in Scherzer and Bieber, I may take a chance on Wheeler as well. He’s coming into this one fairly fresh as he’s only thrown 15 innings over the last month. And those 15 innings have been absolutely dominant. The competition in those last 3 starts wasn’t the toughest, but over them, he allowed just 1 run.
Although the matchup will be tough for him today against the Cardinals, the Cardinals haven’t really been crushing the ball over the last month against righties. Against righties, over the last month, they have just a .066 ISO. It’s only that high due to how well Pujols did coming down the stretch.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Cleveland Guardians vs. Shane McClanahan
While I typically reserve using the Guardians against righties, they’re getting the pitcher today coming into the playoffs pitching the worst. McClanahan did not have a strong finish to the season. It could very well be due to the fact he’s never thrown this many innings. His 166 innings this year were the most he’s thrown in his young career, and by a lot.
Over the last month, McClanahan pitched to a 5.21 ERA and a matching xFIP. He was giving up more hard contact and more flyballs as the season ended. The hope is that it continues today and that the Guardians can take full advantage of his struggles.
Core: My core with the Guardians today will be Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez. Ramirez finished up the season strongly. He finished with a 5-game hitting streak, a streak that saw him get at least 18 DK points 3 times. Now he’s normally better as a lefty, but he’s the heart and soul of this franchise. If they’re going to advance to the NLDS, it will be on his back.
Next up is Gimenez. Gimenez has been one of their better hitters vs. lefties all year, and especially recently. Over the last month, Gimenez has a .410 wOBA vs. lefties in about 30 AB. McClanahan has been slightly worse against lefties this season, making this L/L matchup for Gimenez all the more sweeter.
Secondary Pieces/Value: Other Guardians bats we look to today will be Myles Straw and Gabriel Arias. Arias finished the season strong vs. lefties, with a .384 wOBA and a .273 ISO over since his call-up in late September.
New York Mets vs. Yu Darvish
After getting swept by the Braves, the Mets returned the favor to the Nationals. Their bates woke up during that series and they’ll hopefully continue with the momentum from the final series. The matchup will be tough for them against Yu Darvish, but the time to attack Darvish is when he’s on the road.
His ERA this season was a full run higher away from San Diego. It also helps that Darvish hasn’t exactly been Mr. October. In 7 career playoff starts, Darvish has a 5.18 ERA. Most of that was from when he struggled in the 2017 playoffs with the Dodgers.
Core: My Mets stack will start with Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso. Brandon Nimmo finished the season on fire. He had 6 hits in his final 8 AB and finished with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He’s reasonably priced today at $4.6k on DK.
After winning the 2022 NL Batting Title, McNeil will look to carry that over to the Wild Card round. McNeil also finished the season strong, with hits in 10 straight. In those 10 games, he had multi-hit games in all but 2 of them. He’s their best pure hitter and they’ll need his bat to keep going if they have any chance of making it to the Dodgers in the next round.
Secondary/Value: I also like Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Vogelbach. Vogelbach makes for a nice punt at 1B as he’s only $3.4k tonight and has power upside.
Seattle Mariners vs. Alek Manoah
Sorry Ghost, but I’m siding with the Mariners in this one. Although the ERA has been low for Manoah over the last month, the xFIP isn’t. Manoah’s xFIP is more than 3.5 runs higher than this 1.07 ERA over the last month. A lot of this is due to his disappearing K rate. Over the last month, Manoah has had just a 21% K rate, down significantly from the start of the year.
He also has a troubling 50% flyball rate over the last month. This is a strong Mariners and giving up that many flyballs can lead to some damage. Lefties are the way to really get Manoah. They have a higher slugging % and wOBA and 11 of the 16 homers he gave up this year were to lefties.
Core: When you stack the Mariners, it all starts at the top with presumed Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez. What a year for the kid! He ended the season strong against righties, with a .421 ISO and a .535 wOBA over the last few weeks of the season. He’ll look to continue that momentum into this matchup vs. Manoah.
I’ll also build around Carlos Santana. He’s risky but also possesses some power from the left side. Although he doesn’t hit for average as a lefty, 16 of his 19 homers this season were as a lefty. At just $2.6k he’s a nice value with some upside.
Secondary/Value: Jarred Kelenic may also make my lineup today. He has a ton of risk, but at $2.4k I’m willing to eat that risk as he did start to show some power at the end of the year and fewer strikeouts.
MLB DFS Summary
I also like the Phillies vs. Quintana today.
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Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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