Jared Contestabile 
Very few things in sports compare to Opening Day for MLB. I was down in Cincinnati for the festivities yesterday, and the atmosphere was electric. Being back in a stadium for the first time since last year was just the icing on the cake. The Reds let the fans down, but that’s what they do.
I’m pumped to be putting a few of these articles out each week to help you all make a bag or two this season. After every team playing on Opening Day, we have just a five-game slate for Friday evening. The first game of the eveing starts at 6:40, so we have a bit of an earlier start to lineup lock.
Let’s dig in and head into the weekend with some big wins!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Dustin May vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Not only is May listed as a -200 favorite, but he has the easiest path to success tonight against Arizona. The Diamondbacks started hot last night against Julio Urias. After putting up two runs on three hits through the second, they had just one more hit the rest of the night.
Corbin Carroll is a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year, and an absolute joy to watch on the diamond. That said, he may just be the only bright spot for Arizona this year.
May isn’t an ace in the sense of being a dominant pitcher, but that won’t be necessary here. He threw just 30 innings in 2022, but overall he pitched well. He had an 8.7 K/9, which is a serviceable rate in a plus matchup like this one. Dustin also had a 4.2 BB/9, but those numbers seem to be more of an outlier than anything in a small sample size. I’m not expecting a dominant performance, but he will certainly be an easy SP to click on for cash games.
Christian Javier vs Chicago White Sox
The MLB schedule gods gave most of the terrible teams a day off after embarrassing themselves yesterday. The White Sox nearly ran themselves into a loss…literally. This is a team loaded with talent, but one who will have a tough time to put up numbers on Friday night.
Javier was fantastic in 2022, posting a 11.74 K/9 and 2.54 ERA (2.43 xERA) across 148.2 IP. In his final four starts of the season, he tossed 23 innings, allowed ZERO runs on SIX hits with a 29/6 K/BB. Yes, those numbers are real. I double and triple-checked.
Javier and the Astros are listed as -150 favorites to bounce back from a disappointing Opening Day result.
Robbie Ray vs Cleveland Guardians
I debated putting Jesus Luzardo in this spot, but his matchup is quite a bit tougher and he is an underdog. I do like him as a GPP pivot, and will make his way into some lineups today.
We are here to talk about Robbie Ray. This guy has had a roller-coaster of a career, having dealt with some massive command issues earlier in his career. He turned things around and took home the 2021 CY Young.
Two things are consistent with Robbie Ray. He strikes out a lot of batters (10.04/9 in 2022, 11.04 career), but he also serves up a lot of home runs. He served up 32 longballs in 32 starts in 2022, leading him to a 1.54 HR/9 which is…not good. You take the good with the bad with Ray, and if he is commanding his pitches, the sky is the limit.
The Guardians have some patient hitters and some power in their lineup, so Ray could find himself in a few tough spots. If he can navigate Jose Ramirez (J-Ram is 1-9 in his career off Ray for you BvP people), Ray will be one of the top scorers tonight. He was tremendous in Spring Training, posting a 26/6 K/BB and an ERA and WHIP both right around 1.00. Ray will find a way.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
San Diego Padres vs Kyle Freeland
We don’t have the pleasure of picking on the worst starting LHP in all of baseball again today, but in my opinion, Freeland isn’t far behind. He posted a 6.75 K/9, 5.11 xERA, 4.48 xFIP…the list goes on. He doesn’t miss bats, and that should be an issue against San Diego tonight. Yes, he pitches better away from Coors Field, but the difference isn’t enough for me to move the needle.
The Friars have a loaded lineup, even with Fernando Tatis Jr. out for the 300th time in his short career. Xander Bogaerts posted a .448 wOBA against LHP in 2022, Manny Machado has always hit lefties well, the corpse of Nelson Cruz is even in play if he is in the lineup. All three of those, as well as Juan Soto, Matt Carpenter, and Ha-seong Kim had walk rates over 10% against LHP in 2022. There are a lot of lefties in this lineup, but Freeland also has some reverse-splits over the last few seasons.
I’m expecting some big innings in San Diego on Friday night.
Houston Astros vs Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn has been a solid, albeit unspectacular pitcher over the last few seasons. He will be 36 in May, and struggled this spring, allowing 7 ER in just 16 innings of work. He isn’t a player I’m going to target heavily on a full slate, but this is a spot I love for the Astros.
Lynn served up 19 homers in 21 starts in 2022, and tonight he gets to face the most dangerous hitter in the universe. Yes, I said it. Yordan Alvarez hit one last night that might still be in orbit. He’s my favorite player to watch in baseball, and I’m expecting big things again (please stay healthy!).
BvP will love to know that “Air Yordan” is 5/11 with a HR off Lynn. Alex Bregman has had his way with Lynn as well, and even without Jose Altuve, this lineup is stacked. Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena are two more priority plays in this stack for me. Jose Abreu is fine, but I like to differentiate stacks by swapping out 1B, and I’ll likely do the same tonight. We have to find ways to be different, especially on a short slate.
Seattle Mariners vs Hunter Gaddis
We have to pick spots on a five-game slate, and this is a prime spot for the Mariners. Gaddis posted high strikeout numbers in the minors, but has always had issues with the longball. We won’t spend much time talking about his 7.1 IP in 2022 across two starts, but as Charles Barkley would say…it was TURRIBLE. He gave up SEVEN home runs. Yes, SEVEN.
Gaddis pitched well in Spring Training, but I’ll need to see more of that in an actual MLB game before I believe in him. The Mariners can put up runs in a hurry, and I expect them to bounce back from a slow start yesterday to hang a big number here.
There are some righty-mashers in this lineup. I don’t need to tell you to play Julio Rodriguez (.233 ISO, .368 wOBA vs RHP), but I’m also high on Ty France (.179, .342), Teoscar Hernandez (.194, .333), and Jarred Kelenic. Let’s talk about Kelenic. The kid has just destroyed every level of the minors, then struggled at the big-league level. 2023 is his breakout party. I’m a leader in his fanclub. Don’t get left behind.
MLB DFS Summary
Small slate for a Friday, but we are just getting started! Javier and May look like the best options if you’re a cash game player. I’m high on the Astros, and I’m hoping that’s where we differentiate lineups. I’m sure the Mariners stack will be popular, and for good reason.
Luzardo is a nice GPP option, and I don’t mind Peterson either. Merrill Kelly against the overrated Dodgers lineup could be the ultimate GPP play, but one that has a low floor.
Best of luck on Friday night, I’ll be back tomorrow! Let’s take down some tournaments!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
