Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday and that means we have a smaller slate of MLB DFS. Tonight we’ll have a 7-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. At first glance, this looks like an extremely fun slate. We have a handful of pitchers in monster spots and we also have a whole bunch of spots for bats that like they can explode for a large amount of runs.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Zach Eflin vs. Oakland Athletics
I don’t know if I’ll ever feel comfortable paying $11k for Zach Eflin. He’s not a pitcher that will blow us away with 12 k’s on any given or even 8-9 for that matter. That said, the pitcher that garnered the biggest free agency signing in Tampa Bay Rays history is in a terrific spot tonight against the Oakland Athletics and has also shown some serious upside in his new home.
In his last outing vs. Minnesota (a team that just slaughtered Kevin Gausman), Eflin went 6 strong innings while striking out 9. That led him to a nearly 35-point outing. He should have an easier go of it tonight vs. the A’s. The projected lineup tonight for the A’s has a 27% strikeout rate vs. righties this season and just a .305 wOBA. He’s going to take up a large chunk of our salary cap, but what a spot for the Ray’s ace tonight.
Jesus Luzardo vs. Seattle Mariners
Another pitcher in a solid spot tonight is Jesus Luzardo. He too is coming off a really solid outing. Against the hapless Royals, Luzardo went 7 deep and struck out 8 while allowing just an ER. The 33 DK points he achieved were a season-high. He’ll get the luxury of facing off a seriously disappointing Mariners lineup. This is a Mariners lineup that has really struggled vs. southpaws this season.
Tonight’s projected lineup for the Mariners has a nearly 32% strikeout rate vs. lefties this season. They have 4 regulars in the lineup that strikeout rates over 30% against them. This brings us some serious upside for Luzardo tonight. It also helps that Luzardo has been really good over the last month. His 35% strikeout rate over the last month leads every single pitcher on tonight’s slate. Strikeouts are king when it comes to MLB DFS and Luzardo has a chance to get a large number of them tonight.
James Paxton vs. Colorado Rockies
Wait, another pitcher in a fantastic spot today! James Paxton, the oft-injured pitcher for the Red Sox has been absolutely dealing so far this season. Over the last month, Paxton has been really solid. He’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA and has a 30% K rate. He’s been one of the better stories in all of baseball this season.
4 of Paxton’s last 5 outings have all been over 20 DK points. His lone bad outing was against an Angels team that has been really good vs. lefties. The Rockies on the other hand have not been good vs. southpaws. As a team, they have a nearly 26% strikeout rate on the year and have done little damage with their .285 wOBA. Take them out of Coors and the damage goes down even more.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Tampa Bay Rays vs. James Kaprielian
We should see some fireworks tonight in Oakland as the best team in baseball heads out West to take on the worst team in baseball. While both of these teams are in the bottom 4 in terms of team salary, the difference in talent level couldn’t be any larger. The Rays are coming into this one with 48 wins while the A’s have 50 losses. To make matters worse, the A’s will trot out James Kaprielian tonight.
Last time he faced the Rays he gave up 7 ER in his 5 innings of work. Kap has fared a little better of late, but he still has some really troubling numbers. He’s giving up a nearly 52% flyball rate and has just a 17% k rate. The Rays should be able to deliver another onslaught against a really bad pitcher. We’ll want the lefty Rays tonight as Kap has really struggled vs. them this season. He’s given up a .300 ISO and a .430 wOBA to lefties in 2023. I’m not going to shy away from the righties, but he’s fared much better vs. them.
Give me all the Wander Franco, Josh Lowe, and Luke Raley we can handle tonight. Should Francisco Mejia end up as the catcher tonight, he’ll make for a fine punt of the position as he’s just $2.3k. Back to Raley, Franco, and Lowe. All three have crushed righties this season. Franco and Lowe each have wOBA’s over .380 vs. them this season and ISO’s over .250. Homers from them, even in the spacious Oakland Coliseum are not out of the question tonight.
While I love the lefties here, you can’t ignore both Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena. Both guys have been key to the success of the Rays this season and have as much upside as anyone tonight
Texas Rangers vs. Tyler Anderson
Everything is bigger in Texas and my hope is that at the end of the night, the number of runs that the Rangers have scored is bigger than everyone else. Thanks to a matchup against Tyler Anderson, it’s extremely possible. Over the past month, Anderson has really struggled. His ERA is north of 6 and his xFIP is hovering right now around 6.
While he hasn’t been giving up many homers, the time is coming as he’s been allowing a 51% flyball rate. You can only play with fire so long and putting that many balls in the air is as risky as it is. It also doesn’t help that he’ll be facing one of the top teams in the league vs. lefties tonight. The Rangers have been solid vs. lefties all year long.
You know the drill here. Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia are the lifeline of this offense. They’ll be locks in my Rangers stack every time out. With Seager, I’m not concerned one bit that it’s a L/L matchup. He’s been a beast this season against lefties with a .429 wOBA and a .256 ISO.
Another name we’ll want here is Rookie of the Year candidate Josh Jung. He too has amazing numbers vs. lefties this season. We can wrap up this stack with guys like Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, and Mitch Garver. The Rangers should put up a huge night tonight.
Other stacks I really like tonight are going to be the Red Sox vs. Connor Seabold and the Giants vs. Matthew Liberatore. Also, don’t sleep on the Marlins vs. Bryce Miller. Miller has been bad the Marlins have been surprisingly very good this season.
MLB DFS Summary
This is shaping up to be one of my favorite slates of the season. There are options on both the pitching front and stacking front. We should see ownership spread out on both.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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