Justin Elick 
Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend. We have arrived again, and with Saturday comes another great slate of evening MLB DFS action. It’s a fun-looking slate with very few true aces on the mound (at least not many guys who are STILL aces), but those are the best types of slates. Without further ado, let’s get rolling!
MLB DFS Aces
James Paxton vs San Fransisco Giants
Consider me one of the people in the “I’m excited that James Paxton is back” camp. He is a fun pitcher to watch, and he has been damn good this season. Tonight he takes on a Giants squad that is inexplicably terrible against southpaws. Known lefty-mashers Wilmer Flores and JD Davis are always tough to navigate, but past that? The Giants are better than only the Minnesota Twins in terms of wRC+ against lefties and own a K rate north of 25% against them on the season.
Throw in your one-offs if you want to chase a dinger, but Paxton is the top dawg for me today. He has allowed 2 ER or less in 7 of his last 9 starts. Let’s enjoy this while we can before his arm inevitably falls off. Somehow he seems to age multiple years each season, but for now? He’s a true ace and one that the Red Sox should trade (to the Reds?).
Bailey Ober vs Kansas City Royals
It seems so odd to say this in the year 2023 (or any year for that matter), but Bailey Ober has been a better pitcher than Aaron Nola. With that said, I’m taking him over Nola, partly because of the matchup. Kansas City is just a pathetic offense, and there are no two ways about it.
They have a 78 wRC+ against RHP in 2023, a K rate over 24%, and a .288 wOBA. Those seem like numbers for a struggling hitter who needs some time in AAA to get things right again. Unfortunately for Kansas City fans…that’s the entire TEAM who is struggling against RHP.
Does someone want to tell them that the majority of pitchers are righties?
*checks notes*
They can’t hit lefties either.
Regardless, Ober has been fantastic this season, and actually averaging more FD points per game than any pitcher on the slate. He has a 2.76 ERA with a 90/18 K/BB over 94.2 innings of work. This is about as simple of a task as there is for an MLB arm in 2023.
I’m betting on Ober getting it done.
Brandon Pfaadt vs Seattle Mariners
The bargain bin is a terrifying place for pitchers tonight. I won’t touch either arm in Coors, Teheran has been far too fortunate, Clevinger will undoubtedly have a short leash (I’m sure they are showcasing him for a trade)…the list goes on.
Enter Pfaadt. He was electric against the Reds last time out before serving up a trio of homers in the span of…three AB. Well, Chase Field isn’t quite the bandbox that Great American Ballpark is. Although the Mariners can crush the ball (100 team HR vs RHP), they also have a .229 BA against them in 2023.
If you aren’t a prospect nerd like me, look up Pfaadt’s MiLB stats. He struck out 447 baters in 359.1 innings of work in the minors. Did I mention that Seattle has the 2nd-highest K rate against RHP this season at 26%?
I did now.
If Pfaadt can keep the ball in the park, the sky is the limit here and he may be the key to unlocking some big bats in good spots.
MLB DFS Stacks
Oakland Athletics vs Chris Flexen
You guys remember when Chris Flexen was a good starting pitcher? Yeah, I remember that week. He was shipped off to the minors after posting an ERA near 8 and a WHIP approaching 2. Well, the Rockies will seemingly let anyone start a game for them right now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them give 50 Cent a call at this point.
Oakland put up 8 on this squad last night in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field.
Putting Flexen on the bump doesn’t lead me to believe that things will be different today. Oakland isn’t a good team against RHP…but they aren’t a good team against LHP either.
None of that matters here.
Give me JJ Bleday, Zack Gelof, Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano, Brent Rooker, and any other reasonably priced bat here. Flexen deserves to be an MLB pitcher about as much as Adam Wainwright does right now.
Speaking of Wainwright…
Chicago Cubs vs Adam Wainwright
Quick, name the best hitter in baseball over the last 30 days!
Give up?
It’s Cody Bellinger. He has a .292 ISO, .489 wOBA, .427 BA, 8 HR and 24 RBI, with a K rate of NINE POINT THREE percent. He’s back.
I’ll tell you who shouldn’t be back is Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals have been a colossal failure in 2023, and I’m fairly certain that everyone outside of St. Louis is loving every second of it. Wainwright has been a complete train wreck, and if he weren’t wearing a jersey with “Wainwright” across his shoulders, he wouldn’t be in an MLB uniform.
He was actually competent last time out, but I don’t care about that. Over his last four starts, he has a grand total of 3 FanDuel points.
THREE.
I’m sure you’re familiar with FD scoring. That has to be an all-time terrible stretch.
That said, the Cubs are going to tee off on him again. They reached base a dozen times in three innings against him last time out.
Led by Bellinger, let me get Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and anyone else who is carrying a bat to the plate to face Waino. Cubs are hot right now, and Wainwright is the worst pitcher in MLB.
Let’s cash in on this dream scenario.
Washington Nationals vs Carlos Carrasco
The Carlos Carrasco story is truly fantastic. He is an easy guy to root for. That said, we don’t make money cheering for good people to have success (we don’t, right?).
Let’s hope some of the Nationals guys are good people, because this is a great spot for them to make us some money.
Only the Guardians have a lower K rate (18.5%) than the Nationals do against RHP (18.7%). These guys put the ball in play, and Carrasco pitches to contact. He has just 50 strikeouts in 68 innings of work, and has allowed 107 baserunners over that span.
The Nationals lack star power or name recognition, but Lane Thomas, CJ Abrams, Jeimer Candelario, Keibert Ruiz, and even Joey Meneses can do some damage.
This is my sneaky stack of the day. Let’s go Nats.
MLB DFS Summary
Happy Saturday! Enjoy your day and let’s make some money!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
