Jared Levitt 
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll go through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
With it being Wednesday, we’ll have a split slate of MLB DFS. This article will be focused on the 5-game slate starting at 7 pm EST. The slate tonight is top-heavy with pitching as the most prolific strikeout pitcher in baseball is on the mound in Spencer Strider. We also have some teams in really solid spots for offense so this is shaping up to be a fun slate.
Let’s dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Spencer Strider vs. Boston Red Sox
The only reason to fade Spencer Strider at this point is his hefty price tag. $12.7k is an insane amount of money to pay for a pitcher these days with how volatile their performances have been. That said, this is Spencer Strider and we’re almost guaranteed to have a double-digit strikeout performance from the Atlanta Braves ace. Strider has double-digit strikeouts in 4 of his last 6 games.
In the 2 games that he didn’t have double-digit K’s, he ended up with 9. Over the last month, Strider has had an elite 42% K rate. The next closest person tonight has just a 28% K rate. Even though Strider’s price tag is extremely high tonight, he’s going to be a tough fade for me with how high of a ceiling he has.
Jose Quintana vs. New York Yankees
To counteract the cost of Spencer Strider, I’m going to drop down to Jose Quintana and his $5.7k price tag tonight. This is far from a safe pick tonight as it’s just Quintana’s second start of the year. He was ‘ok’ in his Mets debut, scoring 9 DK points in his 5 innings of work against the White Sox. The White Sox have been bad this year, but they still hit lefties well and Quintana still did ok against them.
He’ll face a much weaker Yankees lineup tonight. They were completely shut down by Justin Verlander last night and over the last week, this team has scored just 21 runs and has a 31% K rate. It’s a risk using Quintana tonight but the Yankees are bad right now and we should look to take advantage of that as often as possible.
I also like Marcus Stroman vs. the White Sox in what very well could be his last outing as a member of the Chicago Cubs.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Mets vs. Carlos Rodon
Carlos Rodon’s tenure with the New York Yankees has gotten off to what you can call a rocky start. Through 3 starts, Rodon is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA. Over his last 2 starts, he’s allowed 10 ER in just over 9 innings of work. Rodon is either overrated or just not 100% healthy yet. Until he’s proven to be healthy and the pitcher that we’ve seen over the years, it’s a good practice to continue to stack against him.
It worked last time out against the Angels and it will work again tonight vs. a Mets team that is fighting for its playoff lives, even if we’re just in July. With Rodon, we’ll want to focus on the righties. Throughout his career, he’s always given up way worse numbers to them.
Is Pete Alonso back? After battling through the worst slump of his young career, Pete Alonso is back to smashing balls thrown his way. He homered twice last night and had 5 RBI and now has a 5-game hitting streak that has seen him get 9 hits. Part of the reason the Mets have struggled this season has been the bat of Alonso. They’ll only go as far as he can take them. I’m going to prioritize getting his hot bat into my lineups tonight.
After Alonso, I’ll want to get in guys like Mark Canha, Tommy Pham, and Francisco Lindor. We’ll want to keep an eye on Pham as he’s been out, but if he’s in today he makes for a great cheap play vs. a lefty. We’ll also want to keep an eye on the Mets’ young catcher Francisco Alvarez. If he’s healthy enough to play today, I love his bat in this spot.
San Francisco Giants vs. Hogan Harris
I’ll start by saying that the Giants’ offense has essentially been non-existent over the last week. Just 9 runs and a 32% K rate. Tonight they’ll face a struggling pitcher in Hogan Harris who has an ERA over 8 over the last month. He also has an insanely high WHIP at 1.8. We’ll have the bad pitching vs. bad-hitting scenario tonight.
In my opinion with this matchup tonight, bad hitting will win out over bad pitching. Both sides of the plate will be in play for me tonight. Righties tend to hit for power vs. Harris but lefties have a significantly higher wOBA vs. him.
I’m going to start my Giants stack with 4 righties. Those guys are going to be Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater, J.D. Davis, and Patrick Bailey. With the exception of Davis, all of these guys have wOBA’s well over .360 vs. lefties. They are all in a great position to succeed tonight vs. a bad pitcher. Of this group, Bailey is probably my favorite, even though I’ll always have a soft spot in my heart for Flores.
Bailey this season has a .234 ISO and a .400 wOBA vs. southpaws. The rookie catcher is also just $3.7k. I’ll also look to add guys like Luis Matos and Mike Yastrzemski here. Matos is just $2.7k tonight on DK and has a .364 wOBA vs. lefties this year. He’s a strong value play.
Other stacks to look at tonight are the A’s vs. Alex Wood and Cubs vs. Lance Lynn.
MLB DFS Summary
This is a small slate that lacks really true solid options. Expect a lot of variance tonight.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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