Justin Elick 
Saturday is a slow afternoon for MLB action, so we will be turning our attention to the evening slate. Starting at 7:05 ET, we have six games on tap, and no shortage of great action. Let’s get things going!
MLB DFS Aces
Logan Webb vs Washington Nationals
Webb is one of those pitchers who never gets talked about enough. He is having a fantastic season over 133 innings pitched, totaling a 134/23 K/BB, 3.11 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP. Over his last three starts, he has a 28/2 K BB with just four ER allowed in 22.2 innings.
Today he faces a Nationals team that is pesky, but still a bottom-tier offense. The Nats are second to only Clevland in K rate (18.9%) on the season, but they don’t do much damage with the balls they do put in play. That said, I’ll take good pitching over contact hitting any day, and Webb has been in the best form of any of these pitchers of late. He and the Giants are listed as -190 favorites in this one.
Dylan Cease vs Minnesota Twins
Cease has had his ups and downs this season, but is in a fantastic spot here. The Twins seem hellbent on setting some sort of team strikeout record with their pathetic discipline of late. On the season, they have the highest K rate among any team at 27%. and over the last 14 days, that number is creeping up toward 29%.
We all know the upside Cease possesses, and he has 8+ K in four of his last six outings. He is coming off an impressive start against the Braves, allowing just 1 ER on 3 hits with a 6/3 K/BB over 5 innings of work. Yes, that is about as good as it gets against the juggernaut right now.
The Twins have shown a ton of power in their lineup, but that that comes lots of big swings and misses. Cease hasn’t allowed more than one homer in a start this season, and his 129 strikeouts over 107 innings of work is beautiful. If he’s hitting his spots today, don’t be surprised if he’s the top scoring pitcher.
Tanner Bibee vs Philadelphia Phillies
I’ve got to find a cheaper option for you, and Bibee is the only one who doesn’t make me feel sick. He has actually put together a very nice string of games, and has allowed just 4 ER over 22.2 innings in his last four starts with a 26/11 K/BB.
The walks do concern me, but the Phillies aren’t a very patient team. They have one of the lowest BB rates in MLB this season at just 7.9%. Bibee has been a silent assassin, and the Phillies have been very inconsistent. If his command is working here, he could pay off this salary just nicely on Saturday evening.
MLB DFS Stacks
Los Angeles Angels vs Osvaldo Bido
Bido has been…not very good in his short time in 2023. Over 27 innings of work, he has a 25/12 K/BB, a 5 ERA, and a 1.52 WHIP. One thing he has done very well is keep the ball in the park, as he has given up just a single homer on the season.
Don’t count on that being the case after today.
Even with Mike Trout on the shelf, this group of guys can still rake. I don’t need to tell you that Shohei Ohtani is your top target here, but there are some other bats to prioritize also. Mickey Moniak is having the breakout that everyone expected to happen 75 years ago when he was a top prospect.
Taylor Ward and Mike Moustakas have been swinging hot bats, and Zach Neto is a solid option if he is batting up top the order again. I like this stack a lot on Saturday evening.
Atlanta Braves vs Adrian Houser
Honestly, I would feel comfortable stacking the Braves against just about anyone at this point. They truly don’t have a weakness in their lineup, and it’s terrifying. Today we don’t have to worry about a tough matchup, as Adrian Houser and his 1.53 WHIP will be on the bump…at least for a bit.
Houser has allowed 87 baserunners via hits or walks in just 57 innings of work this season.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris III, take your pick and load them mup. Houser has a fluky ERA due to some positive batted ball luck, but he can’t play with fire forever, and definitely not against the Braves. Stack ’em up!
Houston Astros vs Paul Blackburn
Blackburn put together some solid outings in June, but something about the turn of the calendar hasn’t been good to him. In three July starts, he has totaled 11.2 IP, allowing 18 H, 13 ER with just a 9/7 K/BB.
Yikes.
Kyle Tucker and company are heating up, and that’s bad news for Mr. Blackburn. Chas McCormick continues to hit down in the order, but is raking. Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, and Jose Abreu are all in play here. Corey Julks adds a speed element to the game…I’m all over the Astros here. Blackburn isn’t very good anyway, but his recent form leads me to believe that things will get worse against the surging Astros.
MLB DFS Summary
Happy Saturday! Enjoy your day and let’s make some money!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
