Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday Funday and MLB has blessed us with a 10-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate is lacking a true ace pitcher but it does have some higher-end pitching that should do well for us. It also has some gas cans that we should be able to take full advantage of tonight. At first glance, this is looking to be a fun slate that we can go in multiple directions.
Let’s dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Nick Pivetta vs. Oakland Athletics
Some sites are showing Nick Pivetta as the listed starter for the Boston Red Sox tonight. Should he start tonight, I really like this spot for him. The A’s are an inconsistent offense that has shown to have some spunk. They are also a lineup that has shown a high propensity to strike out as they have a 32% K rate since coming back from the All-Star Break.
We all know that K’s are king and even if a pitcher gives up a few runs, those excess strikeouts will save our day. Pivetta has shown the ability to strike out hitters in masses this season. Over his last few outings, Pivetta has a K rate of over 42%. With his ability to strike out hitters and the A’s propensity to strike out, there’s a high ceiling for Pivetta tonight.
Logan Webb vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have one of the more exciting lineups in all of baseball with some of the prospects they’ve called up this season. Matt McClain, Elly de la Cruz, and now Christian Encarnacion -Strand. That said, since the All-Star Break, their offense has essentially been non-existent. They’ve scored just 3 runs and have struck out a league-leading 41% of the time.
With such a young lineup, we’ll see swings like this as they’ll be inconsistent as they find their footing. With the funk that they are in right now, I plan on attacking them with the Giants’ top starter in Logan Webb. Webb has been good over the last month with an ERA of just over 3 and a K rate of 25.5%. With his solid form and the Reds’ struggles right now, this is a solid spot for Webb.
Logan Gilbert vs. Minnesota Twins
I don’t mind Logan Gilbert either tonight. The Twins, while having the ability to put up runs quickly, have the ability to really strike out quite a bit. In the 3 games after the All-Star Break, the Twins have struck out 33 times for a 32% K rate. That’s one of the highest marks of any team in the big leagues. If we look at what Gilbert has done recently, he’s been pretty good.
Over the last month, Gilbert has pitched to a 2.10 ERA and just a .87 WHIP. While I wish the K rate was a bit higher than his 19.4%, he does have some upside with how much the Twins have been striking out. The other good thing about Gilbert is that he typically goes deeper into games so that just adds to the positives for him tonight. He’s priced fairly tonight at $9.8k so feel to roll him on DraftKings.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Los Angeles Angels vs. Luis Severino
Luis Severino is coming off back-to-back absolute clunkers. Over his last 2 outings, Severino has given up a total of 14 ER. That’s not ideal for one of the Yankees’ mainstay pitches. He’s actually given up 7 ER 3 times this season in a game. Do I think he does that again today? Eh, probably not. I do think he continues with his string of subpar outings.
This season has really been a struggle for Severino. His ERA is 4 runs higher than last year, his xFIP is 2 runs higher, and K’s are down significantly over his career average. The 2023 season is so far one that Severino is wishing that he can get a restart on. I won’t be overly concerned with splits here because Severino has been hot trash vs. both sides of the plate.
Any Angels stack that doesn’t start with Shohei Ohtani is just doing it wrong. He is the best player that this game may ever see. He’s absolutely crushed righties this season, with a .444 wOBA and a .354 ISO. The only drawback to Ohtani tonight is his $6.6k price tag on DK. That said, there’s way more than enough value in this lineup to make up for his enormous salary.
We’ll also look to include Mike Moustakas at $2.5k, Mickey Moniak at $3.8k, and Taylor Ward and $3.9k. If you want to grab even more value, you can dip all the way down to Eduardo Escobar and Luis Rengifo as they are both under $3k tonight. The Angels are in a great spot tonight and should put up a big number, just like they did last night.
Chicago Cubs vs. MacKenzie Gore
Another team that has been somewhat of a disappointment this season is the Chicago Cubs. They are currently 6 games under .500 and will more than likely be sellers as the trade deadline approaches. The Cubs made some big signings this offseason and they aren’t really seeing much in the way of productivity from them.
That said, they are in a great spot tonight vs. a struggling pitcher in MacKenzie Gore. In 3 of his last 5 starts, Gore has allowed at least 5 ER. That’s not ideal for a pitcher the Nationals plan on building around for years to come. Gore has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season so we won’t need to worry about excluding lefties here.
I’m starting my Cubs stack off with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger has been one of the few really bright spots this season for the Cubs. He’s showing that he really just needed a fresh start to get back to the glory days that saw him win an MVP award. Bellinger has been really solid vs. lefties this season, with a .455 wOBA and a .309 ISO. No need to shy away from the L/L matchup here.
I also like guys like Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, and Yan Gomes. They all have solid numbers vs. southpaws this season. A solid value piece here could be Miguel Amaya. Amaya has a .426 wOBA vs. lefties this season and is just $2.2k on DK tonight.
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Tigers vs. Jordan Lyles, Red Sox vs. Paul Blackburn, and Pirates vs. Xzavion Curry.
MLB DFS Summary
We have our first Monday slate after the All Star Break. This slate brings us some clear mismatches and some pitchers in really good spots. It’s shaping up to be a really fun slate.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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