Jared Levitt 
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll go through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Hump Day!!! On this Wednesday, we have ourselves a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS. As we are in the midst of the dog days of summer, we’re also starting to get closer to the point of the season where teams will start jockeying for playoff positions. Races are becoming clearer and clearer and some races (AL East) are getting tighter and tighter. At first glance, tonight’s slate looks like a really fun one.
Let’s dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Max Fried vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
This pick doesn’t come without it’s own level of risk. The Pirates so far have gotten to Spencer Strider and Yonny Chirinos. Both pitchers left their respective games with negative DK points. This is still the Pirates though and they are an average at best lineup. They’ll also have an extremely tough task tonight vs. the southpaw, Max Fried. After a nearly 3-month absence, Fried returned last week and threw an absolute gem.
He went 6 innings and struck out 8. He amassed 30 DK points in that outing. Can we expect something similar tonight? I don’t see any reason why we shouldn’t. The Pirates have not been good vs. lefties this season as they have just a .130 ISO and an OPS of .698. Look for the Pirates to come back down to earth tonight.
Nick Pivetta vs. Kansas City Royals
Although the Royals have shown some spark of late, they are still the same team that is currently 41 games under .500. They have the second-fewest wins in all of baseball and they are a team that we should feel comfortable attacking with competent pitchers. Tonight we’ll attack them with a pitcher in Nick Pivetta that is pitching really well.
Over the last month, Pivetta has an ERA of just 2.31 over 23 innings of work. Most importantly though, Pivetta has a K rate of 36% over that stretch. We know 1 thing for certain in MLB DFS and it’s that strikeouts are king. I’m willing to chase the strikeouts tonight in a great matchup for Pivetta. It also helps that Pivetta is below $8k on DK tonight.
Other pitchers that I really like tonight are going to be Yu Darvish vs. Seattle, Kevin Gausman vs. Cleveland, and Shohei Ohtani vs. San Francisco (maybe his future home).
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Atlanta Braves vs. Quinn Priester
As it stands right now, the Atlanta Braves have an implied run total of over 6. They aren’t playing in Coors. They aren’t playing in a windy Wrigley Field. The Braves are playing in what is normally known as a pitcher’s ballpark in PNC Park. That’s how dynamic their offense is. They’ll get a strong matchup tonight vs. Quinn Priester. Priester has really struggled over the last month.
His ERA is north of 8.50 and his xFIP is north of 5. In just 19 innings of work over that stretch, he’s allowed 5 homers and 6 barrels. Priester has also allowed a WHIP over 1.7. In my opinion, anything over 1.5 is a concerning WHIP. He puts a lot more runners on than his peers. With Priester, I’m not overly concerned with splits. He’s bad vs. both sides of the plate.
I’m going to prioritize getting in the big guns here if I can. Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson are all primed to have just monster nights. Priester throws his sinker more than 50% of the time to righties. Both Riley and Acuna have smashed sinkers from righties and stand to continue to crush it tonight against a pitcher throwing a bad one.
Against lefties, Priester mostly throws a four-seamer. Matt Olson has a .373 ISO and a .461 wOBA vs. righty fastballs. The big guns are going to feast tonight vs. Priester. I also like guys like Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and Orlando Arcia. Essentially, if you are in the Braves lineup tonight, you’re in play.
Boston Red Sox vs. Jordan Lyles
The only positive I have for Jordan Lyles is that he’s done a nice job cutting down on the home run ball. Over his last 21 innings of work, he’s only allowed 3 to leave the ballpark. After that, I really don’t have many nice things to say about Lyles. Over the last month, he has a 5.5 ERA, a 44% hard-hit rate against, and a flyball rate of of nearly 47%.
That many flyballs that are hit hard, he’s bound to give up some long balls and that should happen against a good Red Sox lineup today. As was the case with Priester and going against the Braves, I’m not going to be worried about splits with Lyles. He gives up almost identical numbers to lefties and righties, and they are bad numbers.
Although the Red Sox have been quiet of late for the most part, I do still have some big favorites in this lineup. I know I said I wouldn’t be overly concerned with splits, but I do really like the lefties in this lineup. Guys like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, and Triston Casas all have really good numbers vs. righties this season. My favorite of the bunch is Casas.
Against righties this season, he has a .240 ISO and a .369 wOBA. He’s also only $3.9k on DK so he makes for a decent value pick. Rafael Devers also has monster numbers vs. righties this season and throughout his career. This season he has a .242 ISO and a .362 wOBA. Both Casas and Devers are my favorites of the bunch here.
Other stacks I like tonight will be Baltimore vs. Christian Javier, White Sox vs. Luis Severino, and Mets vs. Kyle Hendricks.
MLB DFS Summary
This is shaping up to be a really fun slate with a lot of offense. I’ll mostly be focused on the Braves and Red Sox, but there are other really strong teams out there as well.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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