Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a decent size 8-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. Lock is 20 minutes earlier than normal on DK tonight as they included the 2 6:40 games. FanDuel locks at its normal time of 7 pm EST.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Corbin Burnes vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
While the Pirates lineup is slightly improved with the addition of Oneil Cruz, they are still a weak-hitting team that has struck out more than 29% of the time over the last week and has also scored just 13 runs. They’ll have a tough time tonight getting much going against one of the best pitchers on the mound tonight in Corbin Burnes. If we look at recent box scores, we’ll see a pitcher in Burnes that has only struck out 15 batters in his last 3 games. The matchups for him were brutal though as he faced the Dodgers twice and the Cardinals once.
This matchup will be a breath of fresh air for him and we can expect more of a ceiling game. The last time that Burnes faced the Pirates at home, he K’d 10 through 7. He’s one of my favorite pitchers on the night and will be a lock as my SP1.
Carlos Rodon vs. San Diego Padres
Carlos Rodon is back to doing Carlos Rodon-type things. Over his last 2 outings, Rodon has K’d 21 batters. Now the competition was nowhere near what he’ll face tonight in the Padres, but he has as much upside as any pitcher on the hill tonight. He has a 35% K rate over the last month and has pitched to a 1.44 ERA. He’s also giving up a hard-hit rate lower than 30%, which is one of the best marks of any pitcher tonight.
This newly made Padres lineup has gone anemic at times since the trade deadline. Against a solid pitcher like the Rodon, they very well could go silent against tonight. My lean right now is Burnes due to matchup, but you can’t go wrong with Rodon as your ace tonight.
Tony Gonsolin vs Miami Marlins
He’s not in the same category tonight as Rodon and Burnes, but Gonsolin very well could be the top-scoring pitcher at the end of the night. Gonsolin is coming into this game in solid form. Over his last 4 starts, Gonsolin has allowed just 2 ER. Over that stretch, he’s even flashed some K upside with 8 K’s vs. the Brewers a couple of weeks ago.
While this Marlins lineup won’t K too much, they have just a 21% K rate vs. righties over the last month, they also don’t do much in the way of power or hitting as they have an ISO of just .127 and a wOBA below .300. He has somewhat of a lower ceiling as compared to the other 2 aces on the night, but he has a glorious matchup tonight and should be able to dominate a very weak Marlins lineup.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Madison Bumgarner
The Phillies were one of the more disappointing teams yesterday, but in MLB DFS we need to have short-term memories, especially when that team gets a great matchup. Madison Bumgarner has really been struggling over the last month. He’s now gone 5 straight starts allowing at least 4 ER, with the 3 last starts allowing at least 5 ER in each.
In his last 22 innings of work, he’s allowed 11 barrels and 4 homers. Hitters are teeing off on him as they also have a 38% hard-hit rate vs. him. He is just a shell of what he used to be with the Giants and you have to wonder at what point does he look in the mirror and say he’s had enough. We’ll want to attack MadBum with righties as they have a nearly .500 slugging % vs. him and a .362 wOBA.
Core: My Phillies’ core tonight will be Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto. All three guys have crushed left-handed pitching over the last month. Realmuto has a .443 wOBA vs. them over the last month and a .368 ISO. He’s coming into this one in solid form too as he’s hit safely in 8 of his last 9 games. He’s seeing the ball extremely well right now and even though he’s pricey, we’ll want him in our lineups.
Hoskins is another Phillies bat hitting the ball well. He’s hit safely in 3 of his last 4 games and should be coming into this one fresh as he rode the bench during yesterday’s clunker. His wOBA over the last month vs. lefties is .542. He’s a lock in my Phillies stack. Bohm will be the cheap piece to my core as he’s priced at $4.4k on DK tonight. Over the last month, he has had a .438 wOBA vs. southpaws and a .217 ISO.
Secondary Pieces: Other Phillies bats I like tonight that I’ll look to squeeze in where I can will be Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Jean Segura. None are a priority for me like the guys I mentioned in my core, but if I can fit them, I’ll get them in there. Segura would be my favorite of the 3 since he’s been hitting lefties well, with a .455 wOBA vs. them over the last 30 days.
Value: We do have a couple of value bats in this lineup tonight in Edmundo Sosa and Matt Vierling. Vierling has been hitting the ball extremely well of late, with 7 hits in his last 16 AB. He’s min-priced on DK tonight and makes for a really solid value play.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. TBD
So far I’ve seen three different names being thrown out as potential starter for the Pirates tonight, Robert Stephenson, J.T. Brubaker, and Jerad Eickhoff. All three would make the Brewers a very viable MLB DFS stack tonight as none are good. All three are righties and when I use the Brewers, it’s been predominantly against righties as they have struggled mightily vs. southpaws. Only the Dodgers have a higher ISO and OPS vs. righties this season. With the potential of going up against one of these 3 pitchers tonight, I absolutely love the Brewers.
Core: My Brewers core will start with 3 lefties in Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong, and Rowdy Tellez. All three guys have been hitting righties extremely well over the last month. Yelich is coming into this one on a heater as he has 7 hits over his last 10 AB, which includes homers on back-to-back days. Over the last month, Yelich has a .383 wOBA vs. righties and is priced at $4.1k tonight in what could be an easy matchup for him.
Wong is another guy coming into this matchup tonight hitting the ball well. He has 6 hits in his last 17 AB and has homered twice. He’s extremely cheap tonight at just $3.1k on DK. After a monster start to the year, Rowdy Tellez has definitely cooled off. He has just 2 hits in his last 19 AB but he also has a .077 BABIP and a 77% hard-hit rate. He’s an explosion just waiting to happen and it’s going to happen tonight.
Secondary: After my core, I’m going to add in guys like Willy Adames, Andrew McCutchen, and Hunter Renfroe. They’re all righties and won’t get the platoon advantage tonight if one of the expected starters gets the nod, but they are all productive hitters in a lineup I expect to smash tonight. Adames has been hitting the ball well of late and is my favorite of the 3. He’s also the priciest of the 3 but has a ton of upside. He’s combined for 11 Runs and RBI over the last week and if the Brewers go off tonight, you know he’ll be in the middle of it.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Javier Assad
Javier Assad was extremely lucky to walk out of his last start without letting up a run against the St. Louis Cardinals. Through four innings, he allowed 4 hits and 4 walks. Pitching to a WHIP of 2 is dangerous and you can only hope to get lucky so often. He’s going to have his hands full tonight against a team that is one of the best in the league vs. righties. Only the Dodgers have a higher wRC vs. righties this season and their OPS is in the top 3.
Core: I’m going to build my Blue Jays core around the 2 guys in the lineup that are hitting the ball the best right now and that’s going to be George Springer and Bo Bichette. Springer has 9 hits in his last 25 AB and has a 1.048 OPS over that stretch. Against righties over the last month, he has a massive wOBA of .413. He’s extremely expensive tonight at $5.7k on DK, but he’s in line to have a really solid night. Bichette has also done really over the last week, with 8 hits in his last 23 AB. He also has a 53.3% hard-hit rate over the last week.
Secondary Pieces: All other Blue Jays will also be in play tonight. I do have one concern with Vladimir Guerrero right now and that’s his launch angle. His launch angle over the last week is negative, meaning he’s just driving the ball into the ground right now. At $5.8k I have a tough time paying up for someone hitting singles. That said, he always is the potential for a home run, regardless of his current form.
MLB DFS Summary
Other stacks I like tonight are going to be the Giants vs. Mike Clevinger, the Yankees vs. Jose Suarez, and as a sneaky stack, the Cubs vs. Jose Berrios. Berrios has shown at times this season that he can give up runs with the best of them. He has 2 good starts in a row, but he can always regress back to his old form.
Make sure to check out our Home Run Model.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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